Columnist M. Charles Bakst says Chafee getting more aggressive. Sunday Extra

PROVIDENCE -- Leaders in both major parties are watching to see whether the anti-incumbent trend that stripped the nomination of Connecticut Democratic Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman last week seeps into Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee's tough reelection primary on Sept. 12.

Lieberman lost the nomination to millionaire Ned Lamont, a political neophyte, in a record turnout that turned on Lieberman's steadfast support of President Bush's Iraq war policies and the perception that the veteran senator was too close to Mr. Bush.

While Lieberman was targeted from the left wing of his party, Chafee's opponent, Cranston Mayor Stephen P. Laffey, has the support of his party's right flank.

"It appears there is not a whole lot of toleration among activists in either party for moderation," says Jennifer Duffy, who follows Senate races for the Washington, D.C.-based Cook Political Report.

"There is only one big similarity here between Lieberman and Chafee and that is that they are both moderates who have gotten into the cross hairs of the extreme factions of their party."

Chafee is arguably the most liberal Republican in the Senate, opposing the Bush administration on tax cuts, proposals to trim abortion rights, the nomination of Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court and, most notably, the Iraq war.

As the lone GOP senator to oppose giving Mr. Bush authority to prosecute the war against Iraq, Chafee believes he has inoculated himself on a major issue that led to Lieberman's defeat.

"It is true that we were both part of the so-called Gang of 14 in the Senate that has tried to get things done on a bipartisan basis," said Chafee in an interview after his radio debate Thursdaywith Laffey.

"But we have a much different view on the war and that is what appears to have been the major factor with Senator Lieberman's defeat -- his support for the administration's war policy."

In his new book, Fiasco, about the path to U.S. involvement in Iraq, author Thomas Ricks cites Chafee as one of a handful of senators who asked serious questions in Senate hearings about post-victory planning in Iraq.

"There is a kind of disconnect between the rhetoric we're hearing and all the rosy scenarios," Chafee said at the time. "Why aren't we hearing some more about a worse case and what are we prepared for in that instance?"

Another challenge Lieberman faced that is not a factor for Chafee was the perception that while Lieberman pursued his national ambitions -- running as the Democratic candidate for vice president in 2000 and vying for his party's 2004 presidential nomination -- he neglected his home turf of Connecticut.

Chafee is in Rhode Island often, and state political figures say he is responsive to their requests for federal assistance.

But Laffey has drawn strong support from the Washington, D.C.-based Club for Growth, a conservative, antitax group that has steered more than $600,000 to Laffey and runs television ads attacking Chafee. The Club for Growth is not popular with mainstream Republicans and elected officials, who tend to be pragmatic and focused on winning elections rather than making ideological points.

"All of this Club for Growth money is from outside Rhode Island," said Patricia Morgan, the Republican state chairwoman, who backs Chafee.

On Tuesday, in a closely-watched Republican U.S. House primary in Michigan, the Club for Growth-backed candidate knocked off incumbent Joe Schwarz. "The Club for Growth is feeling awfully empowered," said Duffy.

And the GOP primary does give Rhode Island conservatives who yearn for a purer GOP a candidate in Laffey, who has twice been elected mayor of Cranston in campaigns in which he proved to be an energetic and astute campaigner, very effective at organizational grass-roots politics.

The Club for Growth's political action committee endorses Laffey on its Web site, saying it wouldn't "be much of a loss if a new Democrat senator were elected, as he would vote much the same as Chafee does now. Second, it is unlikely this loss would result in tipping control of the Senate back to Democrats, though that, too, can't be ruled out."

"To the extent that people are disaffected and decide to make a statement in the primary, that helps Laffey," said Wendy Schiller, a Brown University political science professor who studies the Senate.

Laffey declined to speculate on the race. "Mayor Laffey is not a pundit," said Nachama Soloveichik, his spokeswoman. "He just does what he does, campaign and get his message out."

Both campaigns have kept their polling numbers closely held, and there have been no reliable media polls. It is very difficult to poll a contest that historically has such a low turnout as a Rhode Island GOP primary.

The record voter turnout -- set in a 1994 gubernatorial primary -- is just 45,000 in a state that has about 660,000 registered voters. The 2002 GOP primary for governor drew fewer than 30,000 voters. Independent voters -- called unaffiliated in state political argot -- can vote in either primary.

"This is going to be a turnout contest, old-fashioned politics, identifying your voters and getting them to the polls," said John Holmes of Bristol, former Republican state chairman and Chafee supporter. "I'm hearing their internal polls are showing this as very close, so I think you are going to have it go all the way down to primary day.

"I'm thinking this could go to 50,000 or maybe even 60,000," said Holmes.

Darrell West, Brown University political science professor and pollster, said one indication of the interest in the race is the number of calls he is getting daily from members of national media outlets.

"There is a lot of national interest in this race, there is going to be a lot of money spent on television and direct mail, and I think you will see a big turnout," said West.

One driver of GOP turnout is the lack of marquee elections in the Democratic primary. The Democratic Senate primary has not drawn anything near the interest of the GOP, because Sheldon Whitehouse, of Providence, the former attorney general and endorsed Democratic Senate candidate, has raised far more money and attracted much more attention than his challenger, Carl Sheeler, a little-known West Greenwich business consultant.

Former President Bill Clinton has been to the state to stump and raise money for Whitehouse, and U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois held a fundraiser for Whitehouse last week in Chicago.

"I'm looking at a big Republican turnout, if for no other reason than there is nothing much going on on the Democratic side," said Joseph Fleming, pollster for Channel 12 (WPRI). "Rhode Islanders like to be where the action is."

In national elections, Rhode Island is one of the most Democratic states; Sen. John Kerry swamped Mr. Bush here in 2004. But Republicans have done better in local elections; Democrats have held the governorship for just 4 of the last 20 years.

The state has never been easy for Republicans in U.S. Senate elections. The only Republicans to sit in the Senate from the state since the 1930s are Lincoln Chafee and his father, the late John H. Chafee, one of the state's most respected political figures.

Still, even John Chafee had tough statewide races. He lost the governorship to a Democrat in 1968, lost a Senate contest to then-Sen. Claiborne Pell in 1972 and almost lost a Senate reelection battle in 1982 to former Attorney General Julius Michaelson.

Democrats are busy building organizational strength and waiting to see which candidate emerges from the GOP race.

Whitehouse says he has no preference about which candidate wins the GOP nomination, even though polls show Laffey to be the weaker general election foe.

"Both Laffey and Chafee will go to Washington and vote for Republican leadership in the Senate and keep the Republican monopoly in Washington," said Whitehouse. "My message is that we need a Democratic Senate and without that there will be no change. Neither Republican candidate is an agent of change."

smackay@projo.com / (401) 277-7321