01:00 AM EDT on Tuesday, July 18, 2006

BY AMANDA MILKOVITS
Journal Staff Writer

Most Rhode Islanders have never lived through a major hurricane. Those who believe they can ride one out, instead of evacuating when ordered, could be making a fatal mistake.

The worst hurricanes to hit Rhode Island -- the Hurricane of 1938 and Hurricane Carol, in 1954 -- left hundreds dead and coastlines ripped clear of buildings. Both brought 100-mph winds and a deadly storm surge -- a wave of tons of water smashing over the coast and rolling up Narragansett Bay.

The next two months are when Rhode Island is most at risk for hurricanes. (Hurricane season is June 1 to Nov. 30.) From the rebuilt coastline, to the inland communities built downstream from old dams, the entire state would feel the power of a severe hurricane.

The biggest problem may be getting all of us to take it seriously and get out of its way.

The state's evacuation plan is based on convincing 131,000 people who live in areas of potential flooding to evacuate along mapped and marked routes -- although some of those people will choose to ride out the storm at home.

The plan also relies on people taking care of themselves. When urged or ordered to evacuate, they should be packed, with their car gassed up. They should have a destination in mind, because the evacuation routes only direct them away from the coast. And they should know their evacuation route, as not all of the routes are adequately marked. (If you live in one of the state's 21 coastal communities, you will find a map with the evacuation route for your town in your local Journal section today. Those living in the map's shaded areas would be asked to evacuate.)

There are gaps in the state's plan. Among them: identifying and evacuating elderly and disabled people who need help; correcting errors on some of the 21 maps drawn up to show local evacuation routes and shelters.

A RECENT STUDY by the state Department of Transportation estimates that it will take 12 hours to evacuate 135,000 people from the coast and inland areas in danger of flooding. (The study model included an additional 4,000 people who could be expected to evacuate without being asked.)

The 12 hours would be under optimal conditions, though -- good weather, no traffic breakdowns, no last-minute grocery shopping or trips to the marina to take boats out of the water.

The DOT, however, did not take into account tourists leaving Rhode Island or coming through the state while evacuating Cape Cod.

"The Cape is an issue," said state EMA Executive Director Robert J. Warren. "We do not how many tourists will be on the highway, south or north."

During an evacuation, local police will be posted at critical intersections to keep traffic flowing. And the Rhode Island Emergency Management Agency plans to have tow trucks and National Guard fuel tankers along the routes to help motorists.

Traffic jams wouldn't be the nightmare scenarios of the evacuations in Texas ahead of Hurricane Rita last year, says the DOT's chief engineer, Edmund T. Parker Jr., but more like a typical Rhode Island rush hour.

"It's nothing like Houston," Parker said. "It's 130,000 people -- there's enough capacity in our highway system that everybody should be able to evacuate."

By comparison, 153,000 vehicles pass over the Washington Bridge on a normal day.

The timing of an evacuation order is crucial. There are a number of things to consider: the size of the storm and its speed; when it's predicted to arrive (on a busy summer weekend, in the middle of the night); the tides; and where it will make landfall.

When an evacuation is called by the governor, the order will be broadcast over TV, radio and the Internet. Residents in evacuation areas with Reverse 911 (only six communities have it now) will get a call instructing them to evacuate. The state EMA will make sure local directors have contacted nursing homes, hospitals, group homes and other special-needs facilities.

Police officers will drive through evacuation areas to order residents to leave. For a mandatory evacuation, Providence will send police, firefighters and emergency volunteers door-to-door in flood zones. Residents who refuse to leave will be asked to sign a form releasing the city from responsibility, because emergency personnel will not come out in the middle of a hurricane.

Although the size and speed of a hurricane are determining factors, the state emergency management director says he won't wait until 12 hours before the storm is expected to arrive to urge the governor to order an evacuation.

"I'm not a gambler," Warren said.

Carcieri thought the 12-hour time frame for an evacuation sounded optimistic. Despite the DOT findings, Carcieri said he'd want to give people more time to leave.

Warren also worries that a false alarm might cause Rhode Islanders and vacationers to shrug off future evacuation orders, at their peril. "That's the issue," he said. "And I don't know what the answer is to that."

OVER THE LAST 11 months since he took over at the agency, Warren has led the state EMA in planning for handling a major hurricane.

Rhode Island now has its first plans for statewide evacuation and hurricanes. The plans, finished in May, detail what federal, state and local officials will do starting 72 hours before an expected hurricane strike.

Maps of the evacuation routes in 21 cities and towns are posted on the state EMA's Web site (www.riema.ri.gov). As of yesterday, though, a few maps for South County towns had either wrong shelters or routes.

Without the maps, following the signs along the evacuation routes can be easy in some communities and confusing in others. In Barrington, Charlestown, Cranston, Narragansett, South Kingstown, Tiverton, Warren, and Warwick, the routes are well-marked. In others, such as Central Falls and Pawtucket, the signs are spaced so far apart that only someone familiar with the area will know where to go.

There were no signs in Bristol, Hopkinton, Little Compton, or Richmond, which has one of the main hurricane shelters in South County. Throughout upper East Bay, there are more signs denoting Rochambeau's Revolutionary War march than there are for evacuation routes.

The state's evacuation plan has come a long way in a year, considering there was practically no plan last year. But its success hinges on two unpredictable factors: hurricane behavior and human behavior.

As he led a dozen local emergency directors in a HURREVAC training session recently at the new state Emergency Operations Center, National Weather Service hurricane program director David R. Vallee urged the directors to anticipate the worst.

Know how much time you need to evacuate people, and then add four hours to account for hurricanes that defy early predictions and for people slow to heed evacuation orders, Vallee told them.

"This is the tough sell we have, to get people to move while the sun is out," Vallee said. "You and I know the ocean will be breaking over the wall and the power lines will be coming down in a few hours."

It's unknown how many people ordered to evacuate will actually go. A statewide survey in February by researchers at Brown University found that 66 percent would be likely to leave if their home was in danger of serious flooding.

As part of a state study, University of Rhode Island civil engineering Prof. Natacha Thomas is surveying what Rhode Islanders would do if ordered to evacuate. She is also drawing up a "vulnerability index" of the state, using census tracts to see what communities have the most vulnerable populations -- the elderly, the disabled and the poor -- who may not have the means to evacuate.

She could be talking about Providence, where a storm surge coming up Narragansett Bay could flood low-lying areas -- and be disastrous if the Fox Point Hurricane Barrier failed.

The City of Providence has a contract with First Student bus company to send three buses to each neighborhood to pick up people at public schools and take them to the nearest hurricane shelter. If the company can't supply drivers, city EMA Director Leo Messier said, he has a list of volunteers with licenses to drive buses.

Some local emergency directors have made arrangements with ambulance and bus companies to help evacuate people, including those with special needs. The state and some local communities are trying to track all the eldery and disabled who may need help evacuating. The state Department of Health and the EMA have separate lists, which need to be updated.

"That's why we tell people, you've got to watch your neighbors," Warren said.

Out on Block Island, where 15,000 vacationers and 2,600 pleasure boats arrive on a busy summer day, town officials will have to order an evacuation long before the mainland. The four ferries that serve the island must leave 18 hours before a hurricane to take shelter up the Thames River in New London.

New Shoreham officials say they will stop day-trippers and order visitors off the island at least two days in advance.

"We hope if it comes to it, people will evacuate," said New Shoreham Town Manager Nancy Dodge. "We may be right, we may be wrong, but we will err on the side of caution."

With staff reports from Dave Reid, Dan Barbarisi, Tatiana Pina, Katie Mulvaney, Maria Armental and Talia Buford.

amilkovi@projo.com / (401) 277-7213