The governor's race shows Carcieri, Fogarty neck-in-neck, according to the Rasmussen Reports.

01:00 AM EDT on Saturday, July 15, 2006

BY MARK ARSENAULT
Journal Staff Writer

PROVIDENCE -- Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, is enjoying a 5-point lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee, 46 percent to 41, according to a poll released yesterday by the independent pollster Rasmussen Reports.

The margin of error in the poll of 500 likely voters was 4.5 percent.

If Republicans nominate Cranston Mayor Stephen P. Laffey, Whitehouse would have a larger lead: 57 percent to 29 percent, according to Rasmussen.

Rasmussen has run regular surveys in Rhode Island for several months. The polls show a positive trend for Whitehouse. In early June, Rasmussen reported that Whitehouse trailed Chafee by 2 points. An earlier poll in April showed Whitehouse trailing Chafee by 3 points.

The Rhode Island governor's race remains neck-and-neck, with Lt. Gov. Charles J. Fogarty, a Democrat, 1 point ahead of incumbent Republican Governor Carcieri, 43 percent to 42.

The three Senate campaigns each provided its own brief analysis of the new poll yesterday:

"The poll shows that Senator Chafee remains in good position to defeat Sheldon Whitehouse in November, while Steve Laffey continues to fall behind," said Chafee spokesman Ian Lang.

"There are good polls and bad polls, and we don't pay much attention to any of them. Steve Laffey's focus remains where it always is, fighting for Rhode Island taxpayers against the powerful special interests," said Nachama Soloveichik, Laffey's spokesperson.

"Neither Republican in this race will bring real change to Washington. Sheldon Whitehouse will," said Whitehouse spokesperson Alex Swartsel.

Rasmussen Reports collects data through phone interviews, with questions presented in a digitally recorded voice. These "automated" polls have been criticized by traditionalists who favor live operators; automated pollsters, such as Rasmussen and SurveyUSA, argue that the consistency of the recorded voice yields better results.

An analysis by the online magazine Slate found that Rasmussen's poll results in battleground states were among the most accurate of all major pollsters in the 2004 election.

marsenau@projo.com / (401) 277-7231