The most recent campaign-finance report suggests that, should the former attorney general win the Democratic primary in September, he could have a decided cash advantage over his GOP opponent.

01:00 AM EDT on Tuesday, July 11, 2006

BY JOHN E. MULLIGAN
Journal Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON -- Democratic Senate candidate Sheldon Whitehouse cracked the million-dollar fundraising mark for the second quarter of 2006, possibly on his way to a healthy cash advantage for the fall campaign.

The former attorney general's receipts overshadowed Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee's best stretch of fundraising to date and underlined the zeal that Democratic contributors around the country have taken to the cause of seizing majority control of the Senate.

A survey of second-quarter fundraising by the Senate candidates also threw into sharp relief the advantage that Whitehouse has gained since Democrat Matthew Brown quit the race in April. Whitehouse no longer faces the likelihood of a debilitating primary. Chafee, despite strong support from the Bush administration and the GOP establishment, still faces a tough primary opponent who has the money to mount a stiff challenge.

"This has always been a winnable seat" for the Democrats, but since Brown folded his tent, Whitehouse has become "a far safer investment" for the activists who largely finance Senate campaigns, said Jennifer Duffy, a Senate campaign analyst for the independent Cook Political Report in Washington.

On the Republican side, meanwhile, the classic dangers of a bloody primary are "just a given" in the race between Chafee and Cranston Mayor Stephen P. Laffey, Duffy said. "The danger to whoever emerges from it is that you may be broke and you're a little bit battered and your 'negatives' are higher," Duffy said, meaning that that attacks of a primary tend to move the electorate to negative views of winner and loser alike.

With receipts of about $1 million during the quarter that ended June 30, Whitehouse has erased the cash advantage of an incumbent who had banked more than $600,000 before anybody else entered the race. Whitehouse reported total cash on hand of about $1.8 million on July 1.

Chafee reported raising about $720,000 -- a personal best for a financial quarter -- with $1.4 million in the bank. He had the help of First Lady Laura Bush, who headlined a late-June fundraiser that netted more than $250,000.

Laffey's campaign said he has between $900,000 and $1 million in the bank, after taking in about $360,000 -- his fourth consecutive quarter in the $300,000 to $400,000 range. So while Whitehouse and Chafee surged, Laffey essentially held steady, suggesting the possibility that he has hit his ceiling as a fundraiser, Duffy said.

Campaign spending also surged during the second quarter, largely because of television advertising. Chafee led the pack, reporting that he spent about $1.2 million. Whitehouse spent about $1 million and Laffey roughly $510,000, according to their campaigns.

The three candidates gave preliminary totals in several key categories as part of a Providence Journal survey of the Senate campaign finances. Businessman Carl Sheeler, a Democratic candidate, declined to provide figures for the survey. Sheeler had about $210,000 in the bank at the close of the quarter that ended March 31. All the candidates are required to file much more extensive campaign-finance reports with the Federal Election Commission by Saturday.

Whitehouse and Chafee exceeded their previous best quarters of $782,000 and $485,000, respectively.

Duffy speculated that, besides contributors' enthusiasm for a promising candidate against a vulnerable Republican, Whitehouse also enjoyed support from Democrats who might have considered Brown -- or had already contributed to him.

Whitehouse also had a big assist from former President Bill Clinton, who headlined a fundraiser for him last month.

The appearance of Clinton and Laura Bush at Rhode Island campaign venues is another sign of the national attention that the Chafee reelection race has commanded in a year when Democrats are pushing hard for the net gain of six seats they need to claim Senate majority power.

Another telling figure for the Republicans is the breakdown of money they have available, under federal election law, to spend in the Sept. 12 primary and in the general election.

Chafee reported that he has $1.1 million for the primary and $300,000 for the general. Laffey reported that he has between $670,000 and $770,000 for the primary and about $230,000 for the general.

The figures raise the prospect that either man, as winner of the GOP primary, would start the general election against Whitehouse -- should he defeat underdog Sheeler -- with a big financial problem.

But the problem may be more theoretical for Chafee, who has stated a willingness to spend as much of his $61-million family fortune as necessary to win.

But Duffy said Laffey's financial disadvantage against Whitehouse would be very real. He is a self-made former businessman worth several million dollars -- perhaps not a big enough fortune for him to afford risking major infusions into his campaign. Furthermore, Laffey's ability to raise a lot of GOP money for a general would be uncertain, given his distance from the party establishment and Rhode Island's Democratic tendencies.

jmulligan@belo-dc.com / (202) 661-8423