But when the prospect of tax relief is added to the mix, a majority of respondents say they're in favor of changing the state Constitution to allow for a casino.

01:18 PM EDT on Wednesday, April 26, 2006

BY PAUL EDWARD PARKER
Journal Staff Writer

PROVIDENCE -- Rhode Islanders are about evenly split on whether the state's Constitution is too important to change to allow a Narragansett Indian casino, but a clear majority would vote in favor of such a change if it meant tax relief, a new poll has found.

The poll, conducted last week by the Bureau of Government Research Services at Rhode Island College, queried registered voters on a variety of topics, including sex education, abortion, illegal immigrants, gay marriage and this year's elections for governor and U.S. Senate.

On the casino questions, 46 percent of the voters polled said the state's Constitution is too important to change, while 45 percent said it should be changed. But, when tax relief was thrown into the mix, 55 percent said they would vote in favor of changing the Constitution and 39 percent said they would vote against.

On a related question, voters overwhelmingly favor the Narragansetts' proposal for West Warwick to one floated by Donald Trump in Johnston. Those favoring the Narragansetts' were 50 percent, while 10 percent said they supported Trump's bid and 30 percent said they supported neither. The question included the condition that both casinos would be equally beneficial to the state.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. A poll predicts how an entire population -- in this case, Rhode Island voters -- would decide a question based on a small sample from that population -- in this case 364 voters. That sample size results in the 5-percentage-point margin of error, meaning that most of the time results for the entire population would be expected to be within 5 percentage points of the sample result. However, there is a 5 percent chance that the actual error will be larger than the 5-percentage-point margin of error.

The poll shows that Governor Carcieri and Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee would probably be reelected if elections were held today.

Chafee would beat challenger and Cranston Mayor Stephen P. Laffey 56 percent to 28 percent in the Republican primary. For that question, the poll sampled 107 people who said they would vote in the Republican primary. Because the sample is smaller, the margin of error rises to 9 percentage points.

The results of the Democratic primary were not as clear cut, though former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse leads a three-way field with 37 percent. He is followed by Secretary of State Matthew Brown, with 21 percent, and Carl Sheeler, 8 percent. The margin of error for the Democratic primary is also 9 percentage points, with 117 people who said they would vote in the Democratic primary sampled.

But the poll indicated the outcome of the Democratic primary may be academic: Chafee would beat Whitehouse 51 percent to 32 percent and would beat Brown 53 percent to 28 percent. That is based on the full sample, with the 5-percentage-point margin of error.

Similarly, Laffey would lose, regardless of his Democratic opponent. Brown would win 48 percent to 29 percent and Whitehouse would win 50 percent to 27 percent.

Fifty-two percent of respondents said Carcieri deserves to be reelected, while 36 percent said someone new should be elected governor. The poll did not test Carcieri against specific challengers.

Other poll results:

21 percent would continue to ban gay marriage, while 42 percent would approve civil unions and 31 percent would approve gay marriage.

44 percent said illegal immigrants should be given temporary worker status and 31 percent said they should be deported, while 17 percent said illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay.

67 percent favored a 24-hour waiting period and mandatory information about medical risks before a woman could have an abortion, while 27 percent opposed.

74 percent said sex education in school should include the use of contraceptives and abstinence before marriage, while 18 percent thought it should only discuss abstinence.

60 percent favored allowing felons to vote after they have served their prison sentence, while 30 percent opposed.

80 percent favored treatment and community service for low-level drug offenses, while 14 percent favored jail.

Asked what is the most important issue state government should deal with, 22 percent said state taxes; 16 percent said schools, teachers and education; 14 percent said jobs, unemployment and the economy; 12 percent said corruption; 10 percent said the state budget; 9 percent said housing costs and availability, and 2 percent each said the power of public employee unions and the environment and pollution.

pparker@projo.com / (401) 277-7360