A relatively snowless winter and a dry early spring prompts fears that a drought could be imminent.

09:31 AM EDT on Friday, April 21, 2006

BY BENJAMIN N. GEDAN
Journal Staff Writer

PROVIDENCE -- It was a rainy October morning the last time the Drought Steering Committee met and the state's aquifers were refilling after an abnormally arid summer. Rivers swelled in the fall and winter, prompting flood alerts.

By January, memories of withered crops, yellowed lawns and emergency restrictions on water use had nearly faded.

But the new year has brought fresh fears of drought, with rainfall in February and last month 42-percent lower than average, according to the National Weather Service. Last month was the third-driest March since meteorologists began keeping records in 1905.

So far, the longed-for April showers have not appeared. "Clearly, we are right now in the early stages of a drought," Robert K. Griffith, a member of the state Water Resources Board, said yesterday.

Before last summer, the state Drought Steering Committee -- made up of state officials and water and agriculture experts who recommend emergency measures to the governor -- had not met for three years. Yesterday, members gathered again after a six-month hiatus, this time to address concerns that the dry weather appears to have started a full season early.

In Jamestown, the North Pond Reservoir is at only 75 percent of capacity and town officials are considering a ban on outdoor water use months earlier than usual, said Beverly O'Keefe, supervising planner at the Water Resources Board.

Eugene Pepper, a state environmental planner, said turf farmers are harvesting early before their fields lose their emerald hue. And crop farmers, he said, have delayed planting seeds in the parched soil.

"The ground is too dry to have the seed germinate," Al Bettencourt, executive director of the Rhode Island Farm Bureau, said. "That means things are going to be late."

Only 1.67 inches of rain had fallen at T.F. Green Airport as of Tuesday, nearly an inch below normal. In Woonsocket, rainfall is down 1.74 inches from normal this month. Stream flow is also below normal, with some waterways plodding along at a late July pace.

The dry early spring was particularly worrisome because there was little melting snow to compensate for missing precipitation.

This year saw the fifth-warmest January in state history, with the daily average temperature of 37.2 degrees a full 8.5 degrees above normal. By February, less than 7 inches of snow had fallen at T.F. Green, compared with three feet at that point last year.

"March tends to be one of our wettest months," Nicole Belk, senior service hydrologist for the National Weather Service, told the Drought Steering Committee. Last month, she said, "everything started to tank."

Dry conditions are being experienced in many parts of the country, including the costal strip from New Jersey to Maine. Alan Dunham, a weather service meteorologist, said Connecticut and Massachusetts have suffered a high number of fires, and brittle twigs, logs and sticks in Rhode Island have raised the risk here, too. Yesterday, the National Weather Service issued a red-flag warning of "explosive fire-growth potential" for the region.

Greening trees are drawing additional water from the already sun-baked soil. "My index is how much dust my dogs turn up in the woods," Griffith said, "and they turn up a lot."

The situation is not as grave as last summer, when the National Weather Service recorded only 2.79 inches of rain at T.F. Green Airport from July 1 to Aug. 30. If not for a downpour in the last days of August, the state would have shattered the 1907 record for its driest summer, 4.16 inches of rain.

James B. Campbell, subdistrict chief for the U.S. Geological Survey, said groundwater levels are still normal, and forecasters are predicting rain tomorrow and Sunday. At yesterday's meeting, the Drought Steering Committee voted not to recommend a drought advisory to the governor.

Yesterday, farmer Vinny Confreda planted 15 acres of corn on his land in Warwick and Cranston and his preparations for tomatoes and sweet peppers were on schedule.

But all that plowing, tilling and harrowing is further dehydrating the soil, and if the sky does not open this weekend, Confreda said he might postpone planting new vegetables.

"The more you loosen your soil, the more it dries it out," Confreda said. "We're just hoping for a few showers."

The Drought Steering Committee will meet again early next month. By then, Campbell said ground water could reach abnormally dry levels, and North Kingstown turf farmer Peter Gavitt might be shelling out $1,000 a day to irrigate his fields.

"They have never done that this early before," Pepper said of the turf farmers. "They are harvesting as fast as they can, rather than irrigate."

bgedan@projo.com / (401) 277-8072