The congressman's decision to seek reelection to the House leaves just one Democrat, Secretary of State Matthew A. Brown, who has announced a Senate bid.

01:00 AM EST on Thursday, March 31, 2005

BY SCOTT MacKAY
Journal Staff Writer

PROVIDENCE -- Rep. Patrick J. Kennedy's decision not to run for U.S. Senate next year, which he announced yesterday, makes it harder for Democrats to gain on the Republican U.S. Senate leadership and makes electoral life easier for incumbent Rhode Island Republican Lincoln D. Chafee.

Kennedy's decision means that the two Democrats party leaders believed had the best chance of defeating Chafee -- Kennedy and Rep. James R. Langevin -- have decided not to run.

"I am grateful for the support and encouragement I have received to run for the Senate," said Kennedy, 37, in a statement released yesterday. "But over the past few days I have determined that I can make the greatest difference in the lives of Rhode Island families by remaining on the Appropriations Committee in the House of Representatives and fighting for their priorities."

As of this morning, Secretary of State Matthew Brown, 35, is the only Democrat who has announced his candidacy for Senate. But he is expected to be joined soon -- perhaps as early as next week -- in a primary contest for the Democratic nomination by Sheldon Whitehouse of Providence, the 49-year-old former U.S. Attorney and state attorney general.

Langevin has said Brown does not have enough experience to be senator and urged him to drop out of the race and support Whitehouse. Kennedy said yesterday that he, too, supports Whitehouse.

A Brown-Whitehouse contest sets up a battle between two Providence Democrats with similar social-issue profiles -- both are supporters of abortion rights -- and Ivy League educations. Both men live in the same ZIP code, wealthy-and-mostly-white 02906.

The joust will make for some tough decisions for Democrats friendly with both Whitehouse and Brown, who were once allies. Brown held a fundraiser last night at a Providence tavern attended by a mostly young crowd.

"If Sheldon gets in, I have a very serious decision to make," said Jerry Lavine, one of the older attendees and a top aide to former Gov. Bruce Sundlun, as he sipped a red wine at Brown's event.

Brown drew about 200 to the Hi Hat restaurant in Davol Square.

A nasty Democratic primary would only help Chafee, Kennedy acknowledged.

Yesterday's decision by Kennedy is a boost for Chafee, whom two separate public opinion surveys showed to be in serious trouble if Langevin was the candidate. Kennedy, first elected to the House in 1994 and easily reelected every two years since, was also considered a formidable competitor.

"I respect the congressman's decision," said Chafee, when questioned during a stop in Bristol yesterday. "Certainly I'm sure it was a hard one."

Chafee praised Kennedy's work in the House and referred to Kennedy's decision in December to take a step away from considering a Senate run in favor of urging Langevin to run for the seat.

"If he made that decision in December, I thought it would be hard for him to change his mind," Chafee said.

There is a simple reason for the national focus on Rhode Island's Senate seat: In a United States sharply divided between blue Democratic states and the red states of the GOP, Chafee sticks out as the Republican senator from a Democratic state who is up for election in 2006.

After Massachusetts, Rhode Island was the state in which Sen. John Kerry defeated President Bush by the largest margin in the 2004 presidential election. In fact, Chafee is the only Republican U.S. senator who represents a state Kerry won by better than 54 percent of the vote.

It is difficult to see how Democrats make serious inroads into the Republican Senate leadership without winning the Rhode Island seat, said Jennifer Duffy, a Rhode Island native who follows Senate elections for the Washington, D.C.-based Cook Political Report.

Other analysts are more blunt. "There is no way the Democrats can win the Senate if Chafee wins here," said Darrell West, a Brown University political science professor.

The Senate has 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats and 1 independent, Vermont's James M. Jeffords, who caucuses with the Democrats. In 2006, Democrats must defend 18 seats -- including Jeffords' -- and Republicans, 15.

Duffy estimates that just four of the seats are closely competitive at this point -- Rhode Island, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Tennessee.

Democrats had made Chafee, a liberal by current GOP standards, and the Pennsylvania seat held by Sen. Rick Santorum, a conservative Republican, their top targets. Santorum has drawn a strong candidate, while Rhode Island Democratic leaders are still searching for someone to take on Chafee.

"I think Chafee is most vulnerable in a Republican primary," said Duffy.

So far, no Republican has stepped forward to challenge Chafee. National and local Republican leaders have rallied around Chafee as their best bet to keep the seat in GOP hands.

There is one exception to this -- Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey, a conservative, who has been mentioned as a possible primary challenger to Chafee. Laffey said only that he has not focused on his 2006 plans yet.

"Under any circumstances, Lincoln Chafee's numbers are extremely soft," said Phil Singer, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the political arm of Senate Democrats.

Rhode Islanders usually reelect Senate incumbents -- none has lost since 1936 -- and Chafee comes from a well-known political family; his late father was Sen. John H. Chafee.

Electing the scions of well-known local families to the Senate is a New England phenomenon. Seven of the 12 senators from the six-state region hail from locally prominent political clans. They include: Sen. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts, whose brother was president John F. Kennedy; Senators Judd Gregg and John Sununu of New Hampshire, both of whose fathers were New Hampshire governors; Jeffords, who father was chief justice of the Vermont Supreme Court; Sen. Olympia Snowe of Maine, whose husband is a former Maine governor; and Sen. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, whose father was a senator.

Patrick Kennedy said leading Senate Democrats asked him to consider running for Senate. Kennedy said his father, who is expected to run for reelection next year, did not pressure him one way or another.

"He [Edward Kennedy] said essentially that he believed that I could win and that meant a lot to me because he knows everything about me," said Patrick Kennedy. "He said he would have gone to the wall for me in the campaign and he would have spared no effort to campaign alongside me."

"He said he absolutely loves me whatever decision I make. . . my father was fantastic," Kennedy said.

-- With reports from Journal political columnist M. Charles Bakst, and Journal staff writer Michael P. McKinney.