The text describes world instability that could result from global warming, an issue that has been played down by the Bush administration.

01:00 AM EST on Wednesday, March 3, 2004

BY EDWARD ORTIZ
Journal Environment Writer

A new Pentagon report describes a world of droughts, floods, severe winters and even warfare over scarce natural resources, all caused by global warming.

The report, titled 'An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security,' is at odds with the Bush administration's view that global warming is not as pressing an issue as many scientists say. The document, which authors describe as speculative, outlines the steps the military should take in the event of environmental havoc caused by abrupt climate change.

Today the U.S. Senate begins hearings on the science of climate change. And this summer the issue will be dramatized on the big screen with the expected release of 20th Century Fox's The Day After Tomorrow, a disaster film about a climatologist, played by Dennis Quaid, who tries to save the world from the effects of abrupt global warming -- namely a new ice age.

The Pentagon report was authorized by Andrew Marshall, director of the Defense Department's Net Assessment Office. Marshall is one of the most respected planners in the military.

In a written statement, Marshall said the impetus for commissioning the report was the National Academy of Sciences report on global warming released in June 2001.

The academy report was widely criticized by the Bush administration, which called the findings inconclusive and incomplete. Two months earlier, the Bush administration had pulled its support of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The treaty has sought to limit the production of greenhouse gases, which many scientists contend are contributing to global warming.

In his statement, Marshall added the caveat that the abrupt-climate-change report reflects the limits of scientific models and information, and said the changes outlined in the report are completely speculative.

However, he said that what is already scientifically known about climate change is enough for the military to anticipate some its effects.

"The Defense Department continuously looks ahead to ensure we are prepared in the future for any contingency. We want to know so that we can plan on whether affected countries would suffer or benefit from climate change," Marshall said.

It is difficult to assess how closely the military is looking at the report, since it is one of 100 the Pentagon commissioned this year, said Lt. Cmdr. Daniel Hetlage, spokesman for the Pentagon. The report was written by Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall of the California-based strategic-planning organization Global Business Network.

The scenarios described in the report consider a period of gradual warming leading to 2010, followed by an outline of what happens in the next decade. The abrupt changes the authors list for after 2010 read like a disaster movie. All of the scenarios are based on current scientific research.

The scenarios are spurred by changes to a deep-ocean current known as the "Atlantic Conveyer" -- a branch of the Gulf Stream that brings warm water from the Gulf of Mexico to the North Atlantic. Warmer temperatures disrupt the current, which, in turn, causes severe weather effects. The Atlantic Conveyer is a well studied phenomenon among those who do research in deep sea ocean currents.

The effects described in the report include polar-style winters for most of Europe, the failure of levee systems in California and the development of large ocean waves that damage coastal cities.

Although Hetlage said the report is not a scientific document, he also said there is more to global warming than just speculation.

"Certainly there is the science to back the existence of that up," said Hetlage.

Because neither author is a climatologist, the report has been dismissed by many politicians and scientists. Senators Jack Reed and Lincoln Chaffee both declined to comment because of the report's speculative nature.

However, some scientists do not see the scenarios as far-fetched. They include Steven Hamburg, professor of environmental studies at Brown University and a sitting member of a presidential panel looking into global warming.

Hamburg said Earth's climate is capable of drastic changes that can happen over a very short period.

"We know enough to say that there is a high-enough probability that there will be significant climate change," said Hamburg. "There is nothing extreme about that scientific statement."

Hamburg said that there should be a public debate on climate change, and that prevention is a better policy than dealing with the aftereffects of global warming.

Edward Ortiz has a fellowship with the Metcalf Institute for Marine and Environmental Reporting. He can be reached at eortiz [at] projo.com