The nation's most heavily Catholic state might not be as Catholic as it
used to be, according to a new study of church membership in the United
States.
Compiled by the Association of Statisticians of American Religious
Bodies, it shows that while 63 percent of Rhode Islanders were
affiliated with with Catholic parishes in 1990, the percentage was down
to 52 percent in 2000.
What is particularly startling about the new figure -- 542,244 -- is
that it comes from data supplied by the Diocese of Providence, based on
reports from local parishes. Only a year ago, the diocese reported to
the Official Catholic Directory that Rhode Island had a Catholic
population of 639,962.
Diocesan officials say that the higher number might more accurately
reflect the impact of a mushrooming Hispanic community that is sometimes
difficult to count.
"Admittedly, there is some guesswork involved," said Monsignor Paul D.
Theroux, a deanery vicar and pastor of Our Lady of Lourdes parish in
Providence who is also in charge of priest personnel.
"But looking at our own internal figures, I don't think we can say there
has been an appreciable decline in the number of Catholics in Rhode
Island."
The loss of 91,183 Catholics between 1990 and 2000, as reflected in
reports from local church pastors, stands in contrast to the gains
reported by parishes in nearby Bristol County, Mass., where Catholic
Church membership increased 9.5 percent, to 268,434, outpacing a
5.6-percent increase in population.
It also runs counter to what the study's researchers have found
nationally. Their report, "Religious Congregations & Membership 2000,"
released 10 days ago by the Glenmary Research Center, shows that while
growth has been stagnant in the Northeast, Catholic churches nationwide
grew 16 percent, picking up 8 million of the 11 million new members
claimed by all the faiths combined.
But a decline in the number of Catholics in Rhode Island would not be so
far different from that in some other denominations: the Episcopal
Diocese of Rhode Island, the state's next largest religious body, which
dropped 16 percent, a 5,109-member loss.
Also losing members were the United Methodist Church, the American
Baptist Churches of Rhode Island, the United Church of Christ, the
Presbyterian Church (USA), the Lutheran Church-Missouri Synod, and the
Unitarian-Universalist churches, which was down 21.8 percent.
However, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, the Mormons,
had the biggest membership gain in Rhode Island, gaining 857 members
during the decade. The Salvation Army more than tripled its size. And
the International Foursquare Gospel Churches saw their Rhode Island
numbers rise more than five-fold.
One group included for the first time were Muslims, whose number in
Rhode Island was pegged at 1,827.
At a news conference in Nashville timed to coincide with the release of
the study, Kenneth M. Sanchagrin of the Glenmary Research Center
emphasized that the study differs from most in that it tries to measure
actual participation in congregations, rather than responses to a survey
or poll.
(The exception is the estimate on numbers of Jews, which includes
secular as well as religious Jews.)
The Rev. Richard H. Taylor, pastor of Beneficent Congregational Church
in Providence and a past president of the statisticians' association,
says researchers went out of their way this time to check for accuracy,
knowing that some denominations had a history of exaggerating numbers.
Because some of the Orthodox churches tended to include anyone in their
ethnic group as being a member of their church, the researchers hired
Alexei Krindatch, an expert who has done similar studies in Russia, to
determine how many people really belong to the Orthodox Church in
America. The result: this year's report shows the church has 77,000
members in 370 houses of worship, not the 1.5 million reported
previously.
And knowing that many of the black denominations have publicly
consistently claimed the same number year after year, the researchers
provided them with $30,000 in software to help them get more accurate
figures. However, most of the black denominations opted out.
Mr. Taylor says that the failure of many of those denominations to
participate, while disappointing, does not necessarily skew the results
in Rhode Island, because many of the black Baptist churches have dual
membership in the American Baptists, whose numbers are counted.
On the matter of counting Catholics, local clergy appeared last week to
be of two minds. The Rev. Aflred P. Almonte, pastor of St. Bartholomew
in Providence's Silver Lake section, said his parish has 1,900 families
on its rolls, down from 2,600 families 10 years ago.
But he said he suspects the actual number of Catholics might be as high
as it was 10 years ago, something he believes would be proved by going
into neighborhoods to talk to the many immigrants who have moved in.
"I suspect that if we did a parish census, we would find we have as many
Catholics as before," the priest said.
The Rev. Raymond B. Malm, of St. Michael parish in South Providence,
says he finds it difficult to believe the Glenmary finding that
Providence County, stretching from Providence north to the Massachusetts
line, has 99,000 fewer Catholics than 10 years ago.
"Our parish is growing, and I would imagine that most of the parishes
that have immigrants are growing at least as much as we are," the priest
said. "Thirteen years ago, we had a Spanish Mass downstairs. But it got
so full that we've had to move upstairs. We have a big church, and we
are almost full every Sunday."
So who are the missing Catholics? Father Malm thinks they include
Hispanics, some in his own parish, who come to church every week but
have never registered as a member of a parish.
Veronica Cordorreal, 48, could be one of them. An active churchgoer who
frequently goes to prayer group meetings at St. Michael Church, said she
never signed up as a parish member because it was "not the custom" in
the Dominican Republic, where she lived before moving to Rhode Island.
It was to account for such people as Cordorreal and others in her family
that Monsignor Jacque Plante, the diocesan chancellor, decided several
years ago that it would be reasonable to adjust the figure from parishes
to take into account the Catholics who have not registered with parish
before sending the report to the Official Catholic Directory.
Last year Monsignor Plante decided that adding 17 percent would be a
reasonable adjustment.
Was it too high? Clifford Grammich, who handled the Catholic data
collection for the study, says he has a formula for assessing the
accuracy of diocesan figures: he compares the number of Catholic
baptisms and funerals to the numbers of births and deaths recorded by
the state, and arrives at a likely estimate of the percentage of the
Catholic population.
The formula, he said, suggests that Rhode Island has 571,000 Catholics
-- a figure in between the raw data that was sent to him by the diocese
and the numbers in the 2001 Official Catholic Directory.
Because the diocese sent him the lower figure, and it was "close enough"
to his own calculations, he went with the lower figure.
Whichever number is used, it shows significant movements within and
outside the state.
"It's not so much that people have stopped going. It's the population
that's shifted," says Monsignor Theroux. "Many older people have retired
to Florida, where the Catholic population is exploding."
The migration of Catholics to the South and the West that is reflected
in the nationwide numbers is mirrored by a similar migration in the
state, away from the urban center: Catholic parishes in South County are
awash in new members, up from 31,941 in 1990 to 58,668 in 2000.
The Rev. Steele Martin, an Episcopal priest who travels the Diocese of
Rhode Island as a supply pastor, says his denomination is also
encountering demographic shifts that are pushing numbers down.
In the Episcopal Church, however, it is the decline in the population
that traces itself to England and that was found in mill towns of New
England, the Rev. Martin believes. Many of their children, he says, go
off to college in other states, and don't return.
"Another part of the story, I think, is we have a different generation
of kids who don't get married soon," Rev. Martin said. "And when they
do, they don't marry Episcopalians."
Perhaps one example of the churches that have been growing is the Rev.
Elizabeth Janiak's Living Waters Four Square Gospel Church in
Smithfield. Ten years ago her charismatic Pentecostal congregation had
41 members. Now it has more than 150, including almost a third who are
African-American, Nigerian, Haitian, Liberian and Brazilian.
Mrs. Janiak says her denomination has three churches in Rhode Island and
plans to soon open two more.
"We would never be considered open or dull," she says, seeking to
explain why more are coming to her church. She says she often conducts
member surveys to find out what issues and needs people want to see
addressed. Right now, for example, the church is sponsoring a series of
programs for college-age people on dealing with stress.
"People think a church is where you sit and someone preaches at you,'
said Mrs. Janiak, whose congregation is made up almost entirely of
former Catholics. "It should be a place where you learn how to deal with
problems. Church isn't what it used to be."
Mr. Taylor, who helped collect the data for the non-Christian religions
in the study, says liberal mainline Protestant churches have experienced
declines, but he believes there might be a silver lining.
"I find that many of these churches, although smaller, are more devout
and more strongly committed."
And the minister takes heart in what he sees as one surprising
statistic: his own denomination, the predominantly liberal United Church
of Christ, had a higher rate of church attendance than the more
conservative Southern Baptist Convention: 33 percent versus 28 percent.
As for churches' chances of regaining some of the lost membership, Mr.
Taylor believes they will.
"A lot of what we're seeing comes from people marrying across faith
lines. When they do, couples tend to distance themselves from their
respective religions. Then after a time, they return."
