PROVIDENCE — After three weeks in the national presidential campaign spotlight, Rhode Island voters head to the polls Tuesday to choose among the White House candidates — the major ones being Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and Republicans John McCain and Mike Huckabee.

For the first time in the state’s modern political history, the nation will watch closely how Rhode Island votes as television networks flash the results to the world.

The stakes are high on the Democratic side, where the tallies in Rhode Island and the three other states holding primaries that day — Vermont, Texas and Ohio — will probably determine whether Clinton folds her campaign or lives to fight on. Republicans in the four states are expected to put McCain over the top in the delegate count, sealing his nomination.

Obama and Clinton have run high-profile campaigns, replete with candidate visits, television and radio commercials and strong get-out-the-vote efforts. Both Republican candidates have campaigned in the state, and while McCain is clearly favored, Huckabee’s supporters say they intend to make a push to get out their supporters.

“We’re not taking anything for granted,” said state Rep. Robert Watson, R-East Greenwich, McCain’s Rhode Island campaign chairman. While McCain has none of the sophisticated voter-turnout campaigns of the Democrats, he intends to call local radio talk and news programs tomorrow to urge a big GOP turnout.

McCain has the support of the party’s hierarchy, including Governor Carcieri and a majority of the tiny GOP legislative delegation. “We know McCain has the party bigwigs, but we have the grass roots, the people who actually do the work and turn out the voters,” says Dave Talan, of Providence, chairman of Huckabee’s state campaign.

But it is the Democratic contest that has attracted national attention and will be the main focus Tuesday evening in Rhode Island, a state that has not given its four electoral votes to a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 reelection.

An early indication of the heightened interest in the Democratic race is the number of absentee ballot applications filed. Almost 4,000 Democratic mail ballots are out, a 235-percent increase from 2004, when John Kerry easily won the state primary.

Tuesday’s voter turnout will almost certainly be a record in a Democratic presidential primary, according to Secretary of State A. Ralph Mollis. As many as 200,000 of the state’s 663,000 registered voters may cast ballots, Mollis’ spokesman said, which would be a historic increase over the 35,789 who voted in the 2004 primary or the 46,884 who in 2000 split in favor of Al Gore over Bill Bradley.

The 20th-century record for a Rhode Island Democratic primary campaign came in 1990 in the three-way race for the Democratic nomination for governor among Bruce Sundlun, Joseph R. Paolino Jr. and Francis Flaherty. About 167,000 voters participated in that contest, won by Sundlun.

“We have seen a real surge in voter registration and, given the number of absentee ballots, we think we’re headed for a record,” said Chris Barnett, the Mollis spokesman.

THE CLINTON-OBAMA contest here provides a fascinating window into the national race between Clinton, the establishment candidate, and Obama, the insurgent who has rattled off 11 consecutive primary and caucus victories.

The Obama forces have sought to play down expectations, with the Illinois senator himself saying in a Journal interview last week that Clinton has the upper hand in Rhode Island. “There’s no doubt that Senator Clinton has the advantage. It’s in her backyard,” said Obama.

It is true that Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, have deep ties to leading Rhode Island Democrats. During the Clinton administration in the 1990s and after his presidency, both he and his wife came often to the state to raise money for their campaigns and to boost local Democrats.

Bill Clinton stumped in Providence for Myrth York’s campaign for governor, noshed on Block Island with Sen. Jack Reed and campaigned for Rep. Patrick Kennedy at the Portuguese Social Club in Pawtucket. He raised money at Mark and Susan Weiner’s house in East Greenwich, rode from T.F. Green Airport to the University Club with former Providence Mayor Joseph R. Paolino, attended a health-care panel in Cranston and bowed his head at Grace Episcopal Church during Sen. John Chafee’s funeral.

Hillary Clinton spoke to Democratic voters under a driving rain on the banks of the Blackstone River in the late 1990s, raised money for Providence Mayor David Cicilline and addressed students at Brown University. Bill Clinton used to joke that he came to Rhode Island so often he ought to be paying taxes here.

Along the way, the Clintons cultivated personal friendships in the state. Bill Clinton gave golf clubs to Arthur Coia, the former president of the Laborers’ International Union of North America, dined with then-Sen. Claiborne Pell and his wife, Nuala, and visited his college girlfriend Denise Hyland Dangremond, who lives in Barrington.

The Clintons have been loyal to their friends here, and Rhode Island Democrats have returned their loyalty; Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign has harvested about $700,000 in campaign cash from the state. When Mark Weiner was being treated for cancer last year at a Houston hospital, both Clintons dropped by to wish him well. On the eve of the 2006 U.S. Senate election, Bill Clinton flew to the state to make an 11th-hour appearance for Sheldon Whitehouse, who defeated then-Republican Lincoln Chafee to win a Senate seat.

Now, as the clock ticks toward Tuesday, the Clintons need their Rhode Island friends. Obama has been outspending Hillary Clinton on television and radio by more than 3-to-1, and has an extensive get-out-the-vote campaign run by Mike Dorsey, a 34-year-old Minnesota native who was instrumental in the Whitehouse victory.

This winter, Clinton has been in the unfamiliar position of lacking the money to combat Obama’s television blitz. “Only Obama has the resources to run an extensive campaign in this post-Super Tuesday atmosphere,” said Tad Devine, a Rhode Island native and veteran of several Democratic presidential campaigns.

“That resource advantage is making an enormous difference around the country,” Devine said. With his Internet fundraising prowess — more than 1 million donors have contributed so far — Obama has “revolutionized the way campaign money is raised,” Devine said.

But late last week, the Clinton campaign announced that it had raised $35 million nationally last month, more than doubling Clinton’s January fundraising, when she collected $14 million to Obama’s $36 million. Official fundraising figures for Obama were not available, but estimates put his fundraising last month at more than $50 million.

Clinton told reporters in Hanging Rock, Ohio, Thursday: “It was incredibly gratifying to see people come forth with this vote of confidence in me.”

Clinton campaign spokeswoman Christine Heenen acknowledged that Obama’s television advertising has given him an advantage. But she said the Clintons’ connections to local political figures and her voter-contact operation will check the media spots.

OBAMA ALSO has ties to Rhode Island, but they are not nearly as deep as Clinton’s. His brother-in-law, Craig Robinson, is Brown University’s basketball coach, and Obama’s niece and nephew attend public schools in Providence. Obama, too, came to the state in 2006 to boost Whitehouse, who is supporting Clinton.

In a way that no other campaign in recent memory has, Obama’s quest has harnessed the enthusiasm of voters seeking change. His campaign office on Westminster Street in downtown Providence teems with volunteers at all hours of the day, and he has picked up some endorsements in the past three weeks from prominent state political figures, including Chafee, Kennedy, former Lt. Gov. Charles Fogarty, Attorney General Patrick Lynch and Nuala Pell.

But Clinton has the backing of more top state Democrats: Whitehouse, Rep. James Langevin, Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts, State Democratic Chairman William Lynch, State General Treasurer Frank Caprio, Mollis and Paolino.

“People are torn; a lot of Democrats like them both, and I think people are having a hard time deciding,” said Devine. “I think it counts for a lot when you see a Senator Whitehouse, a Congressman Langevin or a Lieutenant Governor Elizabeth Roberts supporting Senator Clinton,” said Devine, who is not aligned with any campaign this year. “I think in a Democratic primary that support matters.”

With reports from staff writers M. Charles Bakst and Mark Arsenault.

smackay@projo.com