PROVIDENCE — About a third of the state’s judges will retire all at once if the legislature adopts Governor Carcieri’s proposal to slash judicial pensions by the amount of Social Security benefits they’re due to receive, the head of a state judges’ association predicts.

By the end of the current fiscal year, 23 of the state’s 59 judges will be eligible to retire with pensions equal to either 75 percent or 100 percent of full pay, a courts spokesman said.

And the “vast majority, if not all,” of those 23 judges will retire rather than lose annual Social Security payments estimated to be at least $20,000 per year, said District Court Judge Elaine T. Bucci, president of the Rhode Island Trial Judges Association. She said she hasn’t spoken to each judge, but she said, “Why wouldn’t they retire? That’s a big number.”

Bucci warned that such a large exodus would have a devastating effect on the courts. “I think we would have to come to a dead stop — it would be that significant,” she said. “That would affect everyone: litigants, lawyers, defendants and the criminal justice system where people are entitled to speedy trials.”

Bucci said Carcieri’s proposal “doesn’t seem fair” because judges have been paying into the state retirement system and the Social Security system for years. “In essence, they really are taking the Social Security payment benefit away from the judges,” she said.

Also, Bucci emphasized that she expects state government to lose money if budget Article 35 passes because the state would have to make pension payments to new retirees while hiring new judges. “It would not help the budget in any way, shape or form,” she said.

Supreme Court Chief Justice Frank J. Williams “is concerned” about the governor’s budget proposal and also believes it will cost money the first year, courts spokesman Craig N. Berke said. The proposal is still being analyzed, but “there are indications” it would cost the state up to $2.3 million in the first year to both hire replacement judges and make pension payments to new retirees, Berke said.

Judges who are 65 or older and have 20 years of service qualify for pensions equal to 100 percent of their salaries. By the end of the fiscal year which ends June 30, 7 judges will be eligible to do so, and another 16 judges will be eligible to retire with pensions equal to 75 percent of full pay, Berke said.

Yesterday, Carcieri spokesman Jeff Neal said the governor’s proposal is not meant to save money in the current fiscal year, and no savings have been plugged into the proposed 2009 fiscal year budget. “Instead, it is designed as a long-term structural reform that will save taxpayers money in future years,” he said.

Neal acknowledged that if the proposed change “inspires a host of judges to retire early, there may be some unplanned short-term costs.” But, he said, “One has to assume that most of the judges that may consider retiring as a result of this reform would likely be retiring soon anyway. Taxpayers will have to pay their pensions at that point regardless of this reform.”

Also, he said there would be some “offset” because new judges would be paid less than those who have been on the bench for years.

“Governor Carcieri has successfully proposed some structural reforms to the state employee pension system,” Neal said. “Despite those changes, it appears there is a broad consensus that more reforms will be necessary. In light of those changes to the state employee pension system and the generosity of the current pensions system for judges, it is unclear why judicial pensions should be exempt from reform.”

In response to the question of fairness, Neal said most Rhode Islanders and most state employees don’t receive pensions equal to 100 percent of their pay plus Social Security benefits. “Why would the judicial pension system be exempt from our efforts to reform state pensions across the board?” he asked.

Bucci, who is not among those eligible to retire at 75 percent or 100 percent pay, drew distinctions between judges and other state employees. For example, she noted judges who receive pensions equal to 100 percent of their pay are subject to being called back to work, and she said judges tend to be appointed later in their careers and not when they are in their 20s.

Bucci said some people have told her pension law would prohibit what the governor is proposing. “It’s come to my attention there could be a legal issue with that,” she said. “I can’t say for sure.”

But Bucci said it’s clear the judiciary would lose an enormous amount of institutional knowledge if most of the more experienced judges walked out the door at the same time. She said, for example, that District Court Chief Judge Albert E. DeRobbio “is amazing in what he knows and remembers.” She said she doesn’t know that DeRobbio would retire if the budget article passes. But, she added, “He’d be crazy not to.”

While nearly two dozen judges are eligible to retire with at least 75 percent pay, they continue working “because they are dedicated to their profession, to their colleagues and to the judicial system in general,” Bucci said.

In all, the state has 65 judgeships, but there are six vacancies — three in the District Court and one each in the Superior Court, Family Court and Workers’ Compensation Court. There will soon be a seventh vacancy because District Court Judge Walter Gorman wrote to Carcieri on Feb. 8, saying he plans to retire on March 31. Gorman is one of the seven judges eligible to retire with a pension equal to 100 percent of his pay, a courts spokesman said.

Carcieri has been criticized for dragging his feet on filling judicial vacancies. In December, the Rhode Island Bar Association called on the governor to get moving, saying, “Further delay is unwarranted, unjustified and ill advised.” The bar association noted Carcieri has failed to fill the vacancy left by Superior Court Judge Stephen J. Fortunato Jr., who retired more than a year ago.

Bucci urged Carcieri to fill judicial vacancies, noting that the governor already has lists of finalists who have been screened by the Judicial Nominating Commission. “I understand he should take time because these are significant positions he’s appointing people to,” she said. “But at some point in time, he is going to affect our efficiency.”

Bucci said District Court judges posed for a group photo last week, and the group was particularly small. Because of vacancies, judges sometimes must handle two calendars of cases, and members of the public must sometimes wait for hours to have their cases heard, she said. “It just does not look good for the public’s perception of the judicial system.”

Four retired District Court judges have been handling cases because of the vacancies, and only one of those judges is subject to being called back, Bucci said. The other District Court judges are grateful for the help, but it’s time to fill the vacancies, she said.

On Feb. 2, Neal said he expected the governor to begin nominating candidates for the vacant judgeships “in the next couple of weeks.” Yesterday, Neal said he had no new information about judicial appointments.

efitzpat@projo.com