Gvosdev

They shoot pirates, don’t they?

Not yet, but merchant ships off the coast of Somalia may soon resort to hiring gunmen to stop the brazen seizure of vessels, predicts Nikola Gvosdev, who teachers national security studies at the Naval War College in Newport.

Gvosdev, who has made appearances recently on MSNBC and National Public Radio, says most shipping companies have avoided hiring armed security forces up until now “because of the expense, the hassle and the insurance liability of having armed guards aboard.”

But as piracy blossoms into an international crisis, expanding into the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, ship owners are considering the lethal option.

“The problem you still run into is security onboard. A lot of pirates are successful in stealth. You get a dozen pirates on board and then you have a fight. Until now, while you have had the attacks, you haven’t had much in the loss of life,” he says. “But then, if you get pirates on board and start a gun battle, you may now have additional dead sailors.”

“On the other hand, the evidence shows that if the pirates see a vessel that has armed security — if they fire warning shots or otherwise show they will use lethal measures — the pirates don’t board. They are opportunistic in their choice of targets.”

Somalia, an impoverished nation on the east coast of Africa, has not had a functioning government since 1991. There have been at least 96 pirate attacks so far this year in Somali waters, with 40 ships hijacked. Fifteen ships with nearly 300 crew are still in the hands of Somali pirates, who dock the hijacked vessels near the eastern and southern coast as they negotiate for ransom. In just the last two weeks pirates have seized eight vessels including a huge Saudi supertanker loaded with $100 million worth of crude oil.

Ten to 15 years ago, the pirates were simple Somali fishermen. After their government failed in 1991, Gvosdev says the fishermen were left to themselves to protect their fishing grounds from illegal fishing vessels from Japan, China, France and Spain.

The fishermen hired local armed militants to drive off the poachers and, eventually, “the situation spiraled up,” Gvosdev says. “They started thinking: ‘We can hold up one of these fishing vessels.’ The targets started getting bigger and more attractive and the ransoms started coming in. The fishermen said, ‘Hey this works.’ ”

The merchant companies’ acquiescence to pay ransoms to free their ships and crew has helped create a growing cyclical problem, he says.

“There’s a sense that it’s a business that works, so more people have been joining in.”

A British reporter who entered one of the Somali coastal villages, Gvosdev says, learned that the piracy trade is well organized among criminal leaders who divide up the ransom money and set a percentage aside for improved equipment, such as better radios, GPS systems, boats and guns.

“Therefore, by paying the ransom, you’re also enabling them to increase their capabilities to launch further attacks.”

Shipping officials from around the world have called for a military blockade along Somalia’s coast to intercept pirate vessels heading out to sea. The head of the International Association of Independent Tanker Owners, representing most of the world fleet, said Monday that stronger naval action — including aerial support — is necessary to battle rampant piracy in the Gulf of Aden near Somalia.

But NATO, which has four warships off the coast of Somalia, has rejected a blockade.

U.S. Gen. John Craddock, NATO’s supreme allied commander, said the alliance’s mandate is solely to escort World Food Program ships to Somalia and to conduct anti-piracy patrols. NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said that a blockade of ports was “not contemplated by NATO.”

In neighboring Kenya, the head of U.S. military operations in Africa said he had no evidence that Somali pirates are connected to al-Qaida, but said the allegations are “a concern we all would have.”

Western governments have expressed concern that some pirate ransoms — some $30 million this year alone — could end up in the hands of extremists with links to terror groups in Somalia.

Gvosdev doesn’t believe a blockade or a “land invasion,” as suggested by some countries, has the wide support to be politically feasible.

In the end, Gvosdev says, employing the pirates the same way the U.S. government paid insurgents in Iraq to join their side may be the best option: “For a lot of these people, the bottom line is: ‘Will I get paid at the end of the day?’ ”

— With reports from The Associated Press

tmooney@projo.com