Rhode Island news

Comments | Recommended

As economy slides, so do energy prices

11:57 AM EDT on Thursday, October 9, 2008

By Timothy C. Barmann
Journal Staff Writer

Amid those gloomy charts showing the financial turmoil on Wall Street and around the world, there is one downward sloping graph that may provide some solace: declining energy prices.

The flip side of slowing economic growth is less demand for oil, natural gas and gasoline. And less demand usually means falling prices.

The frighteningly high prices of gasoline and heating oil have dropped significantly from their peaks this summer. Since July 14, the average price of gasoline has fallen 78 cents a gallon, or 19 percent, to $3.329 a gallon –– the lowest price since April.

The price even dipped below $3 a gallon yesterday –– for cash only –– at a station in Westerly, according to Gasbuddy.com.

Heating oil has declined $1.10 a gallon, or 23.2 percent, to $3.649 a gallon –– the lowest price since March.

“I think we’re on a good slope,” said Brud Waterman, operations manager for White Fuel Co., a heating oil dealer. “Hopefully, it will continue.”

But even with the declines, prices are still well above where they were a year ago. Heating oil is 30 percent higher and gasoline is 23.3 percent higher than they were this time last year.

The U.S. Department of Energy has lowered its projection of heating costs for the coming winter. But the newest projection, released on Tuesday, still calls for a record-high heating season.

The agency is projecting that the price of heating oil will average $3.90 a gallon in the Northeast. With average usage of 632.7 gallons, the heating cost from October through March would be $2,468, an increase of $481, a 24-percent increase from last year.

The average household that heats with natural gas can expect to pay $1,345 from October to March, an increase of $213 or 18.8 percent, the Energy Department said.

(The agency’s calculations assume a colder winter than last year’s pushing up consumption by 5 percent to 6 percent.)

“Even if it goes down a little more, it’s still going to hurt people,” said Waterman of White Fuel. “A lot of people are out of jobs. [The price] is still high.”

“I don’t think anyone of us is really looking forward to it this winter.”

The main factors behind the recent decline in energy prices, the Energy Department said, are a drop in demand and slowing economic activity.

The high price of energy has prompted people to conserve more. Gasoline consumption has dropped 9.5 percent so far this year, compared to the same period last year, according to MasterCard’s weekly SpendingPulse report, as reported by Reuter news service.

Yesterday, the Energy Department reported unexpected increases in crude oil and gasoline inventories, which sent crude oil down even further. Light, sweet crude for November delivery fell $1.11 to settle at $88.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price has dropped 38 percent from its peak of about $143 a barrel in July.

And energy use is closely tied to economic growth.

“When the economy slows down, there’s less economic activity,” said Ross Levine, the James and Merryl Tisch Professor of Economics at Brown University.

“This could be keeping factories open less, shorter hours, less driving around to meetings –– anything that’s going to slow down economic activity is potentially going to reduce the demand for electricity, heat and all the rest.”

But difficult economic times will also make it harder for many people to afford their heating bills.

“With the economy slowing … and with unemployment rates going up, there will be more people in need this winter,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors’ Association in Washington.

“It’s not just the poor who are struggling with these bills,” he said. “Lower middle-class families are having to make sacrifices to buy heating oil.”

The federal government has doubled the amount of money available for heating assistance to $5.1 billion from $2.57 billion.

Rhode Island is expected to receive about $30 million in heating-assistance funds, said Matteo P. Guglielmetti, who coordinates the LIHEAP program for the state. Last year, Rhode Island received about $20 million in LIHEAP funds and provided help to 30,000 families, he said.

The extra money will allow the state to increase grants. Oil users could get $575 in help, compared with $450 last year, he said. Those who use natural gas could get a grant of $475 or $500, compared with $400 last year.

tbarmann@projo.com

Advertisement

Reader Reaction