PROVIDENCE — There was good news for Rhode Island Democrats and little to boast about for state Republicans in a Brown University public-opinion survey released yesterday that showed plummeting job approval ratings for GOP Governor Carcieri, an unprecedented nadir for President Bush and strong showings for leading Democratic presidential aspirants, especially New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

The survey showed that Carcieri’s job-approval rating has plunged from 59 percent in January to 44 percent, a steep decline in so short a period. President Bush’s Rhode Island approval numbers are at 16 percent — the lowest of any state — and that Senator Clinton leads all competitors for her party’s presidential nomination.

The poll was conducted on Sept. 8 and 9 at Brown. It was supervised by Brown political science Prof. Darrell West. The survey was based on a sample of 571 Rhode Island registered voters and carries an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

For the first time in his nearly five years as governor, Carcieri is below 50 percent in the percentage of voters who say he is doing a good job. The 15-point slide since January is unusual, West said, for a governor who has not faced a major scandal.

“I don’t believe I’ve seen a drop that fast in a governor’s approval rating in all the years I’ve been doing the survey,” said West, who has overseen the Brown poll since 1984.

“There have been a series of things that reflect poorly on state government and people are now blaming the governor,” said West. “The bloom is off the Carcieri rose. The economy is softening and there have been problems in state agencies.”

Another factor hurting Carcieri, West said, is that Rhode Islanders are upset with the direction of the state. Just 31 percent believe the state is headed in the “right direction,” while 57 percent said the state is off on the “wrong track.”

In Brown’s January 2007 poll, 50 percent thought the state was headed in the right direction and 34 percent believed it was on the wrong track.

Carcieri barely defeated Democrat Charles Fogarty to win reelection in 2006 and has had a difficult time since. “I know people are going to dismiss what I have to say as partisan and I certainly am,” said Democratic State Chairman William Lynch. “But these numbers just show that people are on to him, that they realize the governor is all talk and that he hasn’t done a thing since he first got elected.

“He’s just starting his second term and he is not even a participant in what’s going on in the state,” said Lynch, who is 50. “He’s well on his way to being the most ineffectual governor in my lifetime.”

Carcieri spokesman Jeff Neal defended his boss, saying that the governor is too engaged in his job to worry about poll results. “The governor doesn’t pay attention to polls,” Neal said, unless they are polls his campaign has commissioned during an election year.

“The governor is focused on getting a few things done over the next four years, including bringing our state budget into balance, upgrading our education system and developing renewable energy for Rhode Island,” said Neal.

The Democratic presidential primary results were based on a sample of 380 voters who said they would probably vote in the in the 2008 primary, a sample that had an error margin of 5 percentage points.

If the primary was held today, Clinton would collect 35 percent and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama would get 16 percent. No other Democratic White House hopeful broke double-digits. The numbers have not moved much since January, when 33 percent said they would support Clinton, 15 percent backed Obama and none of the other candidates had more than the 8 percent who supported John Edwards.

“Hillary Clinton has been very well in national surveys and she is doing very well here,” said West. “The Clintons [Senator Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton] have been in this state a lot, they are known commodities. Obama has not caught fire in Rhode Island.”

In the larger sample of 571 voters, any of the leading Democrats would easily defeat any of the leading Republicans for the state’s four electoral votes in a general presidential election. In a Clinton matchup against Arizona Sen. John McCain, Clinton claims 55 percent to 26 for McCain and 19 percent undecided. Clinton has a 54 to 28 lead over former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, with 18 percent undecided. Clinton is also way ahead of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson.

Once again, the poll shows that Sen. Jack Reed is in a commanding position heading into his reelection year. With consistently high job-approval ratings, no Republican opponent in sight and strong fundraising, Reed seems a cinch to win a third term in 2008.

Sixty-one percent of voters rate the job performance of Reed as either good or excellent, the highest approval number among statewide elected officials.

There were good tidings in the survey for both incumbent Providence Mayor David Cicilline and Vincent A. Cianci Jr., the former mayor of the capital city. Sixty-four percent said Cicilline was doing a good or excellent job as mayor and 57 percent said it was a good idea for radio station WPRO-AM to hire Cianci as a talk-show host.

Cianci’s time in federal prison apparently did nothing to dim his attraction as a talk-radio chatterer. Sixty-three percent said Cianci’s prison sentence on a racketeering charge stemming from his mayoral administration would either make them more likely to listen to his show, which begins Sept. 20, or would not have an impact on whether they tuned in. Just 22 percent said his federal conviction would make them less likely to listen to him.

One glimmer of hope for the GOP is that approval ratings for the Democrats who lead the General Assembly — House Speaker William Murphy of West Warwick and Senate President Joseph Montalbano of North Providence — are down. Murphy’s job approval rating dropped from 26 percent to 21 percent and Montalbano was down from 19 percent to 16 percent.

“General Assembly numbers have always been low but getting down to 16 percent for Montalbano is pretty low,” said West. “At that point you empower your enemies” to think about toppling a leadership, West said.

Mr. Bush’s 16 percent approval in Rhode Island — perhaps the nation’s bluest state — is unprecedented, West said.

“I can’t recall any public figure being that low,” said West. “In Rhode Island most people have families bigger than that.”

The full poll results are at www.insidepolitics.org

smackay@projo.com