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Record number of Rhode Islanders expected to cast ballots

07:58 AM EST on Tuesday, November 4, 2008

By Paul Edward Parker

Journal Staff Writer

As voters nationwide make history today — electing the first black president or first female vice president — Rhode Islanders may serve up a small slice of history themselves, taking aim at the voter turnout record.

Officials predict the record of 453,477 ballots cast may fall today. The mark was set in 1992 in the three-way presidential race among Democrat Bill Clinton, Republican George H.W. Bush and independent H. Ross Perot. The Rhode Island electorate has a serious leg up this year, though, with nearly 150,000 more people registered to vote than in 1992. Registration for today’s election stands at a record 701,126.

That means 85.2 percent of adult Rhode Islanders are registered to vote, which is slightly less than the New England average of 85.9 percent. Vermont leads the way with 92.5 percent, and Connecticut takes up the rear with 78.2 percent.

Voter registration in Rhode Island surged in the last year and a half, driven by the historic candidacies of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Today, Rhode Island has 24,000 more registered voters than it did in April of last year.

Some officials believe the historic nature of this year’s election may also spur the percentage of registered voters who cast ballots to eclipse the 79 percent who voted in 1980 when Republican Ronald Reagan unseated Democrat Jimmy Carter.

The electorate has also made a seismic shift toward youth and the Democratic Party.

In the last year and a half, the number of voters younger than 30 surged by more than 30,000. At the same time, the number of voters 65 and older dropped by more than 10,000. As a result, the older voters outnumber the younger by less than 10,000. Only a year and a half ago, the difference was more than 50,000. At that time, voters 65 and older made up 22 percent of the electorate and those younger than 30 made up 14 percent. Today, older voters represent 20 percent and younger voters, 18 percent.

During the same period, the average age of Rhode Island voters dropped by two years, from 50.4 years old in April 2007 to 48.4 today.

Providence led the youth movement, where the percentage of voters younger than 30 climbed more than 7 points in the last year and a half, from 21 percent of the electorate to 28 percent. That represents an increase of nearly 5,000 voters during that period. Today, the number of voters in Providence who are younger than 30 — 26,506 — is double the number who are 65 and older —13,246.

Although all cities and towns saw gains in voters younger than 30, New Shoreham had the smallest, from 8.8 percent of the electorate in April 2007 to 11.1 percent today.

The five youngest communities, based on the percentage of voters younger than 30, are Providence, home to several colleges, 28 percent; Central Falls, 25 percent; South Kingstown, home to the University of Rhode Island, 23 percent; Bristol, home to Roger Williams University, 21 percent, and Pawtucket, 20 percent.

The Democratic Party picked up almost 53,000 voters in the last year and a half, from 245,398 to 298,257. The party’s gain came primarily at the expense of voters who register without affiliating with a party. The number of independents fell from 353,819 to 326,253. Republicans experienced a slight decline, from 77,570 to 76,613.

Democrats saw their biggest gain in Cumberland, where the party rose from 43 percent of the electorate to 53 percent of the electorate. Other big gainers for the party, which increased its share in each of the 39 cities and towns, included Portsmouth, a9.8 percentage point gain; Warren and Woonsocket, 8.1 points each, and Coventry and West Warwick, 8.0 points each.

Although Republicans lost in the share of the electorate overall, the party made slight gains in five communities. That was led by East Greenwich, where the party’s share increased by 1.0 percentage point, from 22.8 percent to 23.8 percent, a rise of 249 voters.

The biggest percentage point shifts away from the party were in Little Compton, 2.1 points; Foster, 2.0 points; Barrington, 1.8 points, and Cranston, 1.7 points.

The statewide gain of 24,000 voters included gains in every city and town except Providence, which declined by 9,517 voters.

The largest gainers in terms of total voters, were Warwick, 3,981; Pawtucket, 3,435; Cranston, 2,706; East Providence, 1,984, and West Warwick, 1,810. In terms of percentage increase, the leaders were Central Falls, 11.9 percent; West Greenwich, 10.9 percent; West Warwick, 10.7 percent; Pawtucket, 10.0 percent, and Exeter, 8.2 percent.

Even as upheaval surged through other aspects of voter registration, one demographic has remained steady over the last year and a half: the proportion of men and women registered.

Although state law requires registrars to collect age and party information from each voter, a record of gender is not needed to vote. As a result, only about 60 percent of voter registration records include gender. But, among those, registration has stayed around 55 percent women and 45 percent men.

pparker@projo.com

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