Items for making cookies, including nuts and dried fruit, at Shaw’s on Taunton Avenue in East Providence.

Cash-strapped consumers looking to keep a lid on holiday spending in 2009 will catch a break for Thanksgiving because the cost of turkey and the fixings for the traditional meal should be about the same, or less, than in 2008, according to food industry members.

The cost of a “modest” Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people –– turkey, vegetables and dessert –– is expected to average about $41 in 2009, 8 percent to 9 percent less than the roughly $44.61 it cost last year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Domestic meat producers have struggled for at least two years as oil prices rose sharply in 2008 and then the economy dove precipitously.

In 2008, the prices paid for corn and grain used to feed cows, the fertilizers used in growing feed, diesel fuel for delivery trucks, and electricity and natural gas for the farms, dairies and stores all spiked because of rising energy prices, especially crude oil.

By late summer 2008, the price of crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose more than 36 percent, topping $145 a barrel at one point.

Then the floor caved in, with financial institutions failing and unemployment rising into the double-digits in some states. People in the United States and abroad cut back sharply on spending, leaving food suppliers no time to adjust supplies before the 2008 holidays arrived.

“Food prices have followed oil prices up and then right down,” said Jim Sartwelle, a farm bureau economist.

The price of crude oil dropped by more than half by mid-2009 before recovering somewhat in the latter half of 2009.

Yet, food-industry companies generally have cut prices as the economy remains in the doldrums.

The price of food slipped in September for the sixth time in the past eight months, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Food prices have declined, overall, for 12 months –– the first time that’s happened in 40 years.

Small food producers, such as Seekonk’s Belwing Turkeys, where people can buy fresh turkeys for Thanksgiving dinner, have had to eat those increased costs.

Roslyn Dickens feeds corn to turkeys at the Belwing Turkeys farm in Seekonk. This will be the 65th year the farm has provided fresh turkeys for customers, and it is expected to sell about 2,800 birds for the holiday.

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The Providence Journal / Kathy Borchers

“We’re holding the price even though our costs have gone up,” said Rosyln Dickens, Belwing’s co-owner. “We’re just operating on a smaller [profit] margin.”

While it’s hard to pinpoint the price of various foods at any one time, there are “real bargains” in the animal products sector of the food industry, Sartwelle said, as a falloff in both domestic and export markets have lead to oversupplies.

The nation’s restaurants, suffering through the weak economy, have cut demand, he noted, and “absolutely murdered” food suppliers.

That’s a good thing for families who want to gather for the traditional Thanksgiving dinner, when more than 45 million turkeys will be eaten.

“We’ve got a glut of turkeys right now,” Sartwelle said. “We’ve taken all our foreign demand and we’re cramming it all through the grocery stores.”

Consumers will see good prices again this year, according to Sherrie Rosenblatt, a spokeswoman for the National Turkey Federation. She declined to give a price range for turkeys.

“It’s always a challenge around the Thanksgiving season because so many retailers will use the turkey as the way to get people in the stores,” Rosenblatt said of pricing forecasts. “If you look for your supermarket specials you can get a real deal.”

For example, Shaw’s Supermarkets has started offering discounts on holiday-related food and cooking items under the advertising banner “Holiday Lists for Less.” Among the included items are: sweet potatoes, biscuits, aluminum foil and, of course, turkey. Cut-price operator Wal-Mart is selling a $20 Thanksgiving meal package that includes a 12-pound turkey.

At Belwing, where turkeys cost $3.09 a pound, a bird of that size will cost about $37.

But it’s a price people are willing to pay as the Seekonk farm will sell about 2,800 turkeys in 2009, about the same number as in 2008.

“People seem to want a really good fresh turkey,” Dickens said. “They’ll skimp on other things.”

pgrimald@projo.com