Betty Borges, manager at The Stock Exchange, Barrington, arranges merchandise at the store on Maple Avenue. “Business has been good in the last three months because we sell used furniture,” she says.

The Providence Journal Frieda Squires

Some local retailers are shrugging off congressional dithering on a finance-sector aid package and the resultant stock market fall-off that’s unnerved everyday American shoppers.

“Consumers are starting to spend much more cautiously,” said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc.

Even before the fall-off in stocks and the gridlock in Washington over the bailout bill, the normally upbeat National Retail Federation forecast retail sales for November and December to rise at the slowest pace in six years. The Washington D.C.-based trade group said it expects sales to rise 2.2 percent to $470.4 billion, half the 4.4-percent average increase for those months that’s occurred for the past decade.

“We expect consumers to be frugal this season and less willing to splurge on discretionary items,” said Rosalind Wells, chief economist at the NRF.

The outlook is even gloomier from TNS Retail Forward, a market research firm based in Columbus, Ohio. Retail Forward expects the fourth quarter to be the weakest holiday season in 17 years, with sales rising 1.5 percent compared with 1.2 percent in 1991.

Yesterday, the New York-based Conference Board’s confidence index fell to 55 from 56 in August, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

Despite the downbeat news, some shopkeepers along Route 114 in the East Bay say they’re positioned well for the critical holiday shopping period.

“I don’t expect that we’ll have much of an impact,” said Robin Silva, manager of the Teddy Bearskins shop in Barrington.

The three-store chain specializing in children’s clothing and toys marks its 25th anniversary this month. The chain caters to people looking for items they can’t find in mass merchandisers and department stores, goods for which they are sometimes willing to splurge. Bargain outfits can cost less than $50, but others can cost triple that amount.

“Santa always has to shop. You can find unique items here,” Silva said as she arranged warm-weather clothing on racks. “If it’s going to affect you going out to dinner that week so you can put your baby in an outfit, you’re going to do that,” Silva said.

Nearby, at the Stock Exchange on Maple Avenue, Betty Borges said sales at the consignment shop have been steady.

“Business has been good in the last three months because we sell used furniture,” she said. “We’re pricing things to go.”

Prices on consignment items in the shop drop 15 percent every 30 days, helping spur sales, she said.

As the economy began to sour this year, shoppers who typically would buy items new are bargain hunting, she speculated.

“People that normally wouldn’t have bought consignment [items] before are coming in and buying,” Borges said. “I don’t think [the economy] is going to freeze up things.”

The store sold two couches, four chairs, tables and other items in just the last two days, she said.

Still, the year hasn’t been without its dips, she noted, the furniture sales are coming after the store shed its inventory of some small items, such as glassware, because they weren’t selling. The store also shuns electric appliances, chandeliers and rugs. The furniture selection leans toward everyday quality rather than antiques.

“People are not looking for antiques right now,” she said.

At Imagine, a gift shop along North Main Street in Warren, co-owner Gene Oberhauser was dreaming of a green-and-gold Christmas — until last month. September was the first month this year when sales did not increase from the previous year.

“We thought we’d run our sales 12 percent to 14 percent over the previous Christmas,” he said. “It’s having an impact.”

It’s far too early yet for Oberhauser to throw in the Christmas stocking.

“Usually, a retailer is more optimistic than not, or else you wouldn’t be in the business; you just think each day something might change,” he said, between bites of a sandwich. “The fall season is the best in the retail business. ... If you pull back and get in a trench [you’re] going to be in trouble.”

Nearby, Bob Estrella said he expects the current financial storm to blow past the Gob Shop, his family-run sporting goods store.

Christmas sales have shrunk in importance to the store in the more than 40 years it’s been open. Instead, the store benefits from spending that follows along with the school calendar.

Spring sports participants show up at the Gob Shop in March and April to buy lacrosse, field hockey gear and the like, while August and September are the months for sales of soccer gear, he said.

“I’d be kind of foolish to say it doesn’t affect us,” Estrella said. “[But] I don’t think it’ll affect us as much as some of the big-ticket items.”

pgrimald@projo.com