A view of the yard at the Adult Correctional Institutions’ minimum security prison. Facing a budget deficit, state officials have been looking at ways to save money by reducing the number of prisoners held at the ACI.

The Providence Journal / Bill Murphy Bill Murphy

One of Governor Carcieri’s policy initiatives for the next fiscal year — reducing the prison population by 500 — won’t be realized.

After meeting for two months, a committee of representatives from the judicial, legislative and executive branches, and the attorney general’s office, couldn’t agree on how to fully achieve the reduction.

Some incremental reduction is still possible, said Carcieri spokesman Jeff Neal. But how much, and whether such a reduction might translate into a budget savings in the next fiscal year as the governor had hoped, remains unclear. Neal said the governor has not yet had a chance to meet with key lawmakers to discuss the issue.

“What we can achieve will be determined by what all the stakeholders can agree to,” said Neal.

In April, decision makers began considering ways to reduce the population inside the Adult Correctional Institutions to save $4 million in the fiscal year that begins July 1.

The Department of Corrections had asked for $189 million for next year, based on an inmate population projection of 3,789. But Carcieri said the department’s budget could only afford an inmate population of 3,289, requiring a reduction of 500 inmates.

The inmate population has since continued rising. One weekend last month it soared to an all-time high of 3,881 (11 beds shy of its operational capacity) before subsiding. Yesterday it stood at 3,781.

Since the state won’t see the full savings the governor hoped, Neal said, “it is likely that the General Assembly would have to consider appropriating additional dollars to cover whatever amount of savings any consensus plan would not be able to achieve.”

The state had asked the Justice Center of the Council of State Governments for advice on how to reduce the prison population. In April, consultants for the center produced 10 specific recommendations that taken together could cut the population by 502 inmates.

Among the key recommendations: improve how corrections officials assess the risk convicts pose to the community to speed up eligible paroles; make it easier for all inmates to shave days off their sentences by earning more “good time;” place more criminals in home confinement; and limit the use of long-term probation periods.

Alan Goulart, chief of the criminal division in the attorney general’s office, attended the regular meetings of the committee. He said members did agree on some of the study options.

For instance, committee members favored the proposed changes in the “good time” policy, changes in assessing parole risk and eligibility, and the practice of granting inmates release credits for rehabilitative programs they finished.

The largest disagreements, he said, surrounded potential changes to the probation system.

Rhode Island convicts serve some of the longest probation terms in the country, which Goulart contends serves as a strong deterrent against further crime. For example, a criminal who serves two years of an eight-year sentence for robbery knows if he is charged again with a crime, he could return to prison for serve the remaining six years of his initial sentence.

“By taking that option away from us,” said Goulart, “it would probably result with us recommending longer periods of incarceration” — and judges accepting those longer sentences. “We thought it would have the unintended circumstance of increasing the [prison] population,” he said.

Carcieri spokesman Neal said the governor knew “that it wasn’t the case that all the stakeholders would agree to each and every step…. We are hopeful that we will achieve some consensus before the end of the [legislative] session but I can’t say that definitely.”

Corrections Director A.T. Wall emphasized that the committee is still working and that while the target of 500 fewer inmates won’t be reached in the next fiscal year, what incremental steps are agreed to now will translate into future savings.

“People are talking and it appears they are achieving consensus about some initiatives,” Wall said. “If those consequences are adopted by the leadership of the three branches, then we’ll see some reductions in the inmate populations and some structural savings in the years to come.”

“What I think is significant about the process,” said Wall, “is not what kind of effect it will have on the ’08 budget alone, but that it represents some structural change in corrections that will echo down in the subsequent years. I think the real savings will be seen in the out years.”

While the Justice Center offered 10 ways to reduce the population by 502, other alternatives to reduce the inmate population remain in play at the State House.

House Speaker William J. Murphy has talked about placing more inmates on home confinement and rewriting the law to encourage judges to use that option more. Murphy, however, has yet to file a bill.

Neal said that while the plan to relieve the prison population had garnered much attention this session, “I don’t think anyone ever expected this provision of the governor’s budget to be one of the key efforts to resolving the state’s budget crisis in the coming year.”

tmooney@projo.com