“It’s a cold one,” the man said. “If you go by the weather reports, tonight is going to be very cold.”

It was nearly 8 p.m. and the man, a volunteer for the Homeless People’s Action Committee who goes by the name John, noted that one part of his nightly routine had already been broken.

Typically, when Mathewson Street United Methodist Church has played host to a hypothermia shelter run by the homeless action committee, the doors didn’t open until 8 p.m

But as of 7 o’clock last night, “We already had 20 people standing in line,” John said. “Pastor Aida [the Rev. Aida Fernandez, the senior minister at Mathewson Church] told us to open the doors because there was no sense leaving them out in the cold. So we opened early.”

It’s still a month before the official onset of winter. But with the weather bureau predicting temperatures in the lower-20s, the people who run the homeless shelters in Providence and elsewhere were preparing themselves for an onslaught of new visitors and for what promises to be a long cold season.

Jim Ryczek, executive director of the Rhode Island Coalition for the Homeless, said that with the economy in recession and people losing their homes and apartments because of foreclosures, there is a fear the need will outstrip resources.

“We’re really stretched to the limit right now,” he said. “We’re in a dire situation.”

At the hypothermia shelter at Mathewson Street, Ernie, who has been homeless “off and on” for about seven years, said having a shelter downtown is truly a godsend since many of the shelters the state offers are relatively distant.

“I’ll tell you one thing, it beats sleeping on the steps of the Arcade,” he said. Ernie said that with only three blankets, a pillow, two days of clothing, and 55 cents in his pocket, he has slept there and under bridges many times, but knows that can be dangerous. It’s one of the reasons he’s joined a brigade of volunteers who go around town at night looking for people to bring to the shelter.

“We know that this shelter has already saved one life,” interjected John. “A couple of weeks ago someone came in and said they saw a man on a porch on Hanover Street who didn’t look so good. We brought him into the shelter and soon as he came in, he collapsed. We put the [defibrillator] paddles on him. And if it hadn’t been for that, he wouldn’t be with us today.”

By about 8 last night, individuals were already scouting out places to sleep for the night — women on the stage of the church’s community room, and men on the floor. More than 40 people — along with a homeless male cat, Magnito — had come to the shelter on Tuesday, and more than 50 people were anticipated last night. John said many of the people who usually turn up probably went to Kennedy Plaza, where the Praise Tabernacle Church was giving away coats for the homeless.

At Crossroads Rhode Island on Broad Street, which has become a clearinghouse for shelter space statewide, there were so many people seeking shelter early in the evening that the agency had to make room for 10 more people to sleep on the floor.

The agency’s family shelter at another location was also full, forcing the shelter to set up cots for two more families.

All told, nearly 100 sought shelter at the two locations last night according to Michelle Wilcox, Crossroads’ chief operating officer.

“You might think it’s all because of the cold. But we were also stretched last week, when it wasn’t so cold. Our women’s shelter has been running at capacity since we opened it in April.”

The picture was much the same elsewhere.

At McCauley House, a social-service agency on Elmwood Avenue in Providence, a larger-than- usual crowd of almost 300 people came for lunch yesterday. The November “Lunch on Us” program was sponsored by the Citizens Bank Foundation, one of several companies and nonprofit groups that help support the agency.

Marilyn Love, 56, one of the participants, said she has been without a permanent home on several occasions since the house she was living in was sold in the 1990s. She has stayed with friends and relatives, and also at shelters.

“It got cold early this year,” Love said. “Because of it being cold so early, people panic.”

Love sometimes stayed at the former state-run Welcome Arnold House shelter in Cranston –– but hated it there. Drains backed up. Drug use and violence were daily facts of life. “It was a horror show,” she said. (Welcome Arnold closed in March 2007 and was torn down for a new state police headquarters that is yet to be built.)

Often, Love said, she preferred to sleep outside –– even in winter.

Sometimes she slept on a park bench near the skating rink in Providence’s Kennedy Plaza. She filled the spaces between the bench slats with newspapers, “so the air didn’t come in.” She wore three and four pairs of pants, and awoke every two hours to warm up inside a convenience store that was open around the clock.

“I had it timed,” she said. “I’d give my feet a chance to thaw out and get warm. You have to think about things like that. You make it or you don’t. You sink or you drown. You don’t have a choice. I’ve learned how to survive.”

To be sure, there is no single face of homelessness.

At the Rhode Island Family Shelter, on Beach Avenue in Warwick, Lindsay Gartsu, 19, is the mother of a 22-month-old son and is expecting her second child next month; her husband, meanwhile, takes classes at the New England Institute of Technology.

Timothy Peirson, 29, and his wife, Shannon Barlow, 28, have three young children and came to the shelter after Timothy was laid off last year.

According to the Rhode Island Coalition for the Homeless, 6,773 people entered a Rhode Island shelter in fiscal year 2007. By contrast, just over 4,500 people entered a shelter 10 years ago.

Ryczek estimates that some 90 percent of the state’s homeless are “economically homeless” –– people forced out of a permanent living situation by job loss, illness or other factors beyond their control. Ten percent are “chronically homeless,” defined as being homeless for two or more years.

The “worst-is-yet-to-come predictions” have recently led to an ad-hoc emergency shelter committee that is coordinating respite at local places of worship when local shelters become overwhelmed. The faith-based initiative is collaborating with nonprofit organizations, including Amos House and the Rhode Island Coalition for the Homeless, with input from Noreen W. Shawcross of the state Office of Housing and Community Development. That office is also providing some emergency funding, she said.

“If and when homeless shelters become overflowing to capacity, individuals or families will be referred to certain churches and synagogues [in Providence] that have volunteered to be places of respite,” said Ryczek, of the Coalition for the Homeless.

Eileen Hayes, executive director of Amos House in Providence and the group’s chairwoman, said the emergency committee is reactivating a model that started five years ago.

The plan calls for congregations to rotate from one week to the next, she said. The congregations will be asked to seek volunteers to serve meals, help children with homework and provide other hospitality. A paid staff person, trained in safety and crisis issues, will work overnight.

The winter emergency shelter plan is expected to run from Dec. 8 through March 31 of next year.

Hayes said, “The trigger is, every single night we’re going to be looking at the numbers both at Crossroads Family Shelter, Women’s Shelter and Harrington Hall,” a shelter facility at John O. Pastore complex in Cranston. “When those beds are full and people have no place to stay, this will move into place.”

Hayes added, “We consider it the responsibility of the state — that’s why last year we were looking to eliminate this. But given all these factors in play and the state budget crisis, we have no choice. We can’t let people stay out in the cold. And again we don’t really know how bad it’s going to get, but we can’t wait.”

—With reports from staff photographer Freida Squires. Help for the homeless

Crossroads Rhode Island, in Providence, is the largest provider of services to the homeless, and serves as a clearinghouse for shelter space statewide. People in need can either go there directly, or call the main number at (401) 521-2255, 24 hours a day.

2-1-1, a United Way statewide referral program, directs callers to a wide range of emergency needs, including shelter, food, clothing, medical or mental-health assistance and more. Callers are directed to services in their area.

For more information on emergency shelters and services, or how to donate to help the homeless:

•Rhode Island Coalition for the Homeless, 160 Broad St., Providence, 421-6458, or visit the Web site, www.rihomeless.com

•United Way 2-1-1 Rhode Island, www.211ri.org.

rdujardi@projo.com