Emily Arthur, 17, of Barrington, hoped to attend the University of Delaware, her first choice. But with a record number of high-school graduates this year, schools are rejecting students they would have admitted in previous years. Emily will be attending URI in September.

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The Providence Journal / Bob Thayer

A sense of dread hit Emily Arthur the moment she saw the thin envelope waiting for her at home this month.

The Barrington High School senior knew it contained the words she least wanted to read: “On behalf of the Committee, I am sorry to tell you that we will not be offering you admission into the University of Delaware.”

“My heart just dropped,” said Emily, 17, “because that was like my number-one school.”

Emily, as countless graduating seniors before her, had pinned her hopes on getting into her first choice for college — and her teachers and guidance counselor told her she had the qualifications to get there.

Her student profile seemed to fit the bill. She’s a good student with B+ grades and decent, if not great, SAT scores. Her application also included a strong essay and varied extracurricular activities — varsity volleyball, photographer for the school newspaper, women’s choir.

Perhaps another year, Emily would have been accepted to the University of Delaware. But Emily, through a fluke of demographics, is part of the largest group of graduating seniors in U.S. history — almost 3.4 million. For the high school Class of 2008, getting into college — almost any college — has never been harder.

The University of Delaware told Emily that nearly 25,000 students applied for 3,550 freshman spots, making it “far and away the largest applicant pool in our history,” as well as the most competitive “as measured by high school grade-point averages, class rank and SAT and ACT scores.”

This year marks the high point of 14 consecutive years of steady growth in the number of high school graduates nationwide, according to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, which monitors and predicts demographic trends. A gradual decline in numbers is expected to begin in the coming school year, falling to a low point in 2013-14, before slowly rising again, the commission estimates.

The number of Rhode Island high school graduates rose more than 31 percent between 1995 and 2005, the commission reported. This year, the state will produce 840 more graduates than last year, a 7-percent increase.

Local colleges report they have seen a significant increase in the number of applications this year, and have turned away some students who normally would have been accepted. More students are being forced to accept admission to their fallback choice, or “safety school,” after being rejected from more competitive colleges they thought were within their reach.

For Rhode Island’s approximately 10,400 graduating seniors, the timing of the population peak could not be worse.

Gerron Scott, 17, fears the national trend prevented him from getting into his top two schools: the University of Georgia and Georgia State.

A senior at Providence’s only entrance-exam public high school, Classical, Gerron knew his B- to C+ academic record was not stellar. But he has a combined math and verbal SAT score over 1,200, is president of student government and plays two varsity sports, football and track — enough to make him stand out, he had hoped.

No such luck.

“This happened to a lot of my friends, too, and the colleges, they say it’s because they got more applications than ever before,” said Gerron. “But, oh man, I was so sad when I didn’t get in. I have family down in Georgia and I went to visit and I just fell in love. The campus at University of Georgia was beautiful. I felt like I belonged there. And Georgia State, I thought I’d get in. It’s right in the heart of Atlanta and that city is booming right now.”

Now Gerron must chose between the two schools that accepted him: the University of West Georgia and the University of Rhode Island. Both are good schools, he says, but the disappointment lingers.

OVER THE PAST five years, applications to Brown University have gone up 30 percent. The increase, said Jim Miller, dean of admission, is an indication not only of Brown’s growing popularity, but also the increase in the number of students nationally and the trend toward students applying to more colleges than they have in the past.

This year, Brown received 20,630 applicants — an 8-percent increase over last year — and admitted just 13.4 percent, “the lowest admit rate in our history,” Miller said.

Salve Regina reported a 5-percent increase in freshman applications over last year, 6,000 applicants for 575 spots. In recent years, however, applications spiked by as much as 15 percent to 20 percent, said Laura McPhie Oliveira, vice president for enrollment.

The University of Rhode Island saw a 10.6-percent increase in applications, breaking records for the third straight year, said Admission Dean Cynthia Bonn. More than 15,800 students applied for 3,200 freshman spaces, 100 slots more than last year. As part of its strategic plan, URI has been expanding its freshman class in recent years, by 200 last year and 100 for this fall. The school will accept more than 70 percent of its applicants, as it did last year, Bonn said.

At Roger Williams University, Lynn Fawthrop, vice president for enrollment, estimates about 400 students who last year would have been accepted based on their student records and SAT scores failed to secure a place this year.

“We had a 17-percent increase in freshman applications over last year,” Fawthrop said. “Our student profile has changed. Our average SAT score went up 13 points from last year. Given the increase in applications, coupled with an increase in quality, we found the very same caliber of student we would have accepted last year was wait-listed this year.”

REJECTION STINGS, but ending up at a “safety” school might work out for the best, says Providence native Liz Petow, now a college sophomore.Two years ago, a high school senior, she was crushed when her top choice, Middlebury College in Vermont, wait-listed and ultimately rejected her. At the time, she shared her disappointment with projo.com readers online, on the Subterranean Homepage News blog.

In the end, Liz, a member of the National Honor Society at St. Mary Academy-Bay View, picked her last choice, the University of Vermont, because it offered her generous financial aid.

To her surprise, she discovered UVM was a perfect fit.

“I couldn’t ask for more for college,” Liz said this week. “All my courses have been incredibly challenging and interesting and my professors have been amazing, and there are a lot of great people here, a lot of smart people.”

She offers advice to seniors going through the same shock and distress. “I would say keep an open mind and don’t let those other schools that could have as much to offer you fall by the wayside,” Liz said. “I’m surprised by how much I love UVM.”

Emily Arthur hopes the same will be true for her.

Two weeks after she received her rejection letter, she visited URI — as a member of its Class of 2012.

“I’m very excited about it. It’s a wonderful school,” Emily said. She thought she wanted a big school and one far away from home. She’s come to think the Kingston campus will be big enough — and far enough away to feel like an adventure.

URI may have other benefits as well, such as a lower price tag than some of the other schools she applied to, she says.

“I always believe things happen for a reason,” Emily said. “I’m going in for education, and my mom always says, ‘You don’t want to start your career with college debt as big as a mortgage.’ So I think it worked out for the best. And I am looking forward to next year.”

jjordan@projo.com