For six years, the state’s population had been shrinking.

So when the economic downturn raised Rhode Island’s jobless rate to 10.5 percent, it was also expected to accelerate population losses. In September, Rhode Island led the nation in unemployment, and it remains New England’s toughest job market.

But to the surprise of many, the depth of the recession in Rhode Island has actually reversed its stubborn migration pattern.

There are several reasons why the exodus has slowed.

Depressed housing values have made it difficult to sell a home to cover the mortgage, let alone bring in enough money to buy a new one. In the past year, the median housing value in the state has plummeted 25 percent.

Also, long periods of joblessness have left working-class families with little savings to pay for movers or a security deposit for a rented apartment somewhere else.

Meanwhile, the lack of job openings in other states and the skills gaps among Rhode Island workers have left few opportunities for jobless residents.

“People seem to be stuck,” Edinaldo Tebaldi, an economics professor at Bryant University, said. “It’s very hard to move.”

The new barriers to packing up and hunting for work out-of-state present several challenges for state policymakers.

The growing pool of unemployed residents is increasing the demands for social services at a time of staggering budget deficits. And the presence of so many laid off workers –– particularly in old-line manufacturing industries –– has created a glut of workers whose training does not match the high-skilled jobs being created here and around the country.

In a report to be released Thursday, Tebaldi shows that the nearly uninterrupted population losses that began in 2003 have ended. The rate of the annual exodus began to slow in late 2006 and has declined even more steeply. For 2009, Moody’s Economy.com, a research company, forecasts no change in Rhode Island’s population. For 2010, a slight increase is expected.

Rhode Island has always been attractive to many people. Even during the downturn, plenty of Rhode Islanders are happily sticking around for the beaches and seafood, universities and growing hospitals. Family ties run strong here, breeding giant loyalty to this miniature land.

But Andres Carbacho-Burgos, a Moody’s economist, says the changing migration patterns are the result of the real estate collapse and the scope of the national downturn.

“If you’re a homeowner, you’re going to be very hesitant in selling your house, especially if it’s under water,” Carbacho-Burgos said, referring to a property worth less than its mortgage. Also, he added, “Just about everywhere in the country is in recession. No matter where you go, you’re going to have difficulty finding a job.”

That fear has kept Felix Da Silveira, 35, trapped in Pawtucket, where he has helped push the city’s jobless rate over 13 percent.

Da Silveira, a roofer idled by the freeze in home construction and improvement, had considered following his brother and making a fresh start in Ohio. He quickly reconsidered.

“It’s not worth it. There ain’t no work nowhere,” Da Silveira said. “I got more family here. If I fall on my face out there, I’m screwed.”

Rhode Island is not the only state where locals are staying local. In April, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that the national migration rate is at its lowest level since the agency began tracking it in 1948.

But the lack of suitcase packing in Rhode Island is particularly noteworthy, given the pattern over the last few years.

Rhode Island’s population peaked at 1.07 million in 2003. The following year, it lost 2,700 residents, or 0.75 percent of its population. In 2005, it lost 9,200, a nearly 1-percent decline.

Over the same period, the country grew. From 2003 to 2008, the national population rose to 304.1 million from 290.2 million, even as Rhode Island lost 20,000 residents. In 2007, Rhode Island was one of only two states to lose population.

At first glance, the end to those population losses might seem like a positive development. After all, state leaders have lamented the population declines, agonizing over how to retain college graduates, Florida-bound retirees and everyone in between.

But economists say the sudden slowdown in outward migration is not a sign of newfound competitiveness. Instead, they argue, it reflects the freezing in place of workers who would be better off somewhere else.

“When you get this freezing up, it’s not good,” Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, said. “Labor market flexibility is one of the hallmarks of the U.S. economy and New England economy. People go where the jobs are. People are able to deploy their skills in the most productive ways.”

For many in Rhode Island, however, the skills learned on the factory floor are not in demand in many places, even in strong economic times, according to University of Rhode Island Prof. Edward M. Mazze, a co-author of the migration study. “One of the reasons people are not leaving is because they don’t have the skills to take jobs in other states,” he said. “There may not be another assembly line somewhere else.”

So for now, the state’s “boxed-in” residents, as anti-poverty activist Henry Shelton calls them, are draining the unemployment benefits fund, burdening public and private social services providers and putting enormous pressure on the state to train displaced mill workers to build wind turbines and staff hospitals and research laboratories.

Peter E. McGrath, associate director of the Comprehensive Community Action Program in Cranston, has logged a dramatic jump in demand for medical and food services. But with hardly enough money to eat, few of his clients have the cash to chase a job out of state.

“Here you’ve got family, you’ve got support,” McGrath said. “When people are in crisis, they stay.”