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R.I. jobless rate ranks 6th in U.S., last in New England

01:00 AM EDT on Saturday, April 18, 2009

By Benjamin N. Gedan

Journal Staff Writer

Rhode Island’s economy stood out again in March — only this time, not as a cautionary tale.

The state was among only three that recorded no change in its unemployment rate in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

In all, 46 states saw their jobless rates rise. The unemployment rate eased in North Dakota, and it held steady here and in Georgia and New York.

By contrast, Oregon recorded the biggest spike in joblessness, its rate rising 1.4 percentage points to 12.1 percent. Only Michigan –– with a 12.6-percent unemployment rate –– is struggling more to preserve jobs.

South Carolina (11.4 percent), California (11.2 percent) and North Carolina (10.8 percent) also have higher jobless rates than sixth-ranked Rhode Island.

The national unemployment rate is 8.5 percent.

Historically, Rhode Island has plunged into recession quicker than most states and climbed out slower.

In 2008, housing values here fell before real estate crashed in most of the country. By September, the state’s jobless rate was the worst in the nation.

But as the national economy shows signs of life, there are some indications that Rhode Island’s darkest days may have passed.

The jobless rate in Rhode Island is still worryingly high: 10.5 percent, the worst level in three decades. But in February, it rose only two-tenths of a percentage point, the smallest increase since September. In March, it did not rise at all for the first time since June 2007.

In New England, several states are seeing job losses slow. Patricia Moulton Powden, commissioner of the Vermont Department of Labor, has described a “stabilization” of that state’s economy. John Tirinzonie, the state labor economist in Connecticut, has spoken of a “bottoming out” of the recession.

“As summer approaches,” Tirinzonie said recently, “let’s hope that not just the weather, but also the economy, will begin to truly warm up.”

For Rhode Island policymakers, however, it may be too early to declare victory over the downturn.

The Ocean State continues to drag down the regional average. The 10.5-percent jobless rate here trails all five other New England states. The next most troubled economy is in Maine (8.1 percent jobless), followed by Massachusetts (7.8 percent), Connecticut (7.5 percent), Vermont (7.2 percent) and New Hampshire (6.2 percent).

No industries in Rhode Island reported job growth in March. And while the unemployment rate held steady, the state lost 1,900 jobs.

That contradiction –– a stable unemployment level amid deep job losses –– could indicate a surge in the number of Rhode Island residents finding work outside the state. But it is more likely evidence of the growth in so-called discouraged workers –– unemployed people who have given up the search for jobs and are no longer counted in the jobless rate.

The number of discouraged workers equals 2.1 percent of the state’s labor force, up from 1.6 percent a year ago and the second highest in the country after Michigan, according to the Current Population Survey.

In that light, said Bryant University Prof. Edinaldo Tebaldi, the stable jobless rate is not welcome news. “It does not mean that the economy is doing better,” he said.

The sectors that helped push Rhode Island into recession –– manufacturing and construction –– are still sputtering. Construction companies cut 300 jobs in March; factories handed out 100 pink slips.

Kelly M. Coates, senior vice president of Johnston-based Carpionato Properties, said bids from general and site contractors have been unusually low, a sure sign of a slow economy.

Road-building crews are gearing up for federal stimulus projects. But the civil-engineering firms that plan drainage and parking for new construction projects and the architecture firms that design buildings are largely idle.

“We’re seeing prices come down. They’re chasing work,” said Coates, who is overseeing the addition of 113 rooms at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Warwick. “There is not great news ahead in the construction trades.”

Cheryl Merchant, a board member at the state Economic Development Corporation, also sees more pain ahead.

As chief executive officer of Hope Global, Merchant has seen company plants shuttered in Ireland, France and South Carolina and watched her work force shrink by half over the past year, dropping to 500 employees from 1,000. In Rhode Island, the company has shed 130 of its 320 workers as sales dropped by 50 percent.

The 126-year-old company manufactures shoelaces, parachute cords and weather-stripping used to seal windows and doors in homes. But 85 percent of its sales are to automotive companies, one of the industries most severely dented in the downturn.

“I’m thinking June is the bottom. I don’t think we’re quite there yet,” Merchant said. “It takes a while to turn a big ship.”

bgedan@projo.com

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