Friday is predicted to dawn gray in New England — a color appropriate to the tone for what is normally a red-letter day for American retailers and consumers alike.

The first big shopping day of the holiday season is unlikely to live up to the day’s reputation as an annual frenzied free-for-all, according to a multitude of consumer surveys. Retailers will mark time through what’s expected to be a steady day of business and those headed out to shop should plan ahead as well.

The National Retail Federation forecasts that during the economic downturn that is lingering in many parts of the country, holiday sales will decline 1 percent, to $437.6 billion, from last year.

Still, a federation survey released Tuesday estimates that 26 percent of consumers — nearly 57 million — plan to shop at some point from Friday through Sunday, while 35 percent “maybe” will shop over the weekend.

One in 10 people said they plan to begin shopping between midnight and 3 a.m. on Friday for bargains, while 29 percent will head out between 4 and 6 a.m.

“While consumers are still expected to remain cautious with their holiday spending, the anticipation of deals [on Friday] seems to be coaxing shoppers out of hibernation, many arriving to stores early and with coupons in hand,” said Pamela Goodfellow, a senior analyst with BIGresearch, which conducted the survey in conjunction with the federation.

True shopping addicts can satisfy their consumerist Jones on Thanksgiving Day at Old Navy stores, which plan to open from noon to 7 p.m. Otherwise, they’ll just have to wait until midnight Friday to start spending.

(Retailers caution people to call ahead or check store Web sites for operating hours at stores in their area.)

Wrentham Village Premium Outlet will have the largest collection of stores opening at midnight Friday, while the Disney store in Warwick Mall also plans to open at that time.

The Disney store kicks off rolling openings at Warwick Mall, followed by Old Navy at 3 a.m., J.C. Penney at 4 a.m. and then Macy’s and Target, both at 5 a.m. The mall will be open until 10 p.m.

Providence Place mall and Emerald Square Mall, in North Attleboro, Mass., will be open from 5 a.m. until 10 p.m. on Friday, as will Dartmouth Mall.

Away from the malls, many big-box retailers plan 5 a.m. openings.

Wal-Mart said its supercenters in Coventry and Westerly will be open around the clock for post-Thanksgiving Day events, beginning at 3 a.m. Friday. Sales on promotional items, which will be spread around the stores, will begin at 5 a.m. Other Wal-Mart stores in the state will close at 10 p.m. Friday.

“We’re actually going to move people who normally would be lined up outside into the stores and breaking that line up into several smaller lines within that store,” said Steven V. Restivo, a Wal-Mart spokesman.

Wal-Mart altered its store-opening and product promotion policies after a worker at its store in Valley Stream, N.Y., was trampled to death on the first big holiday shopping day in 2008 as customers rushed the building’s doors in the early morning hours to grab bargain-priced goods.

Wal-Mart operating plans “were developed in consultation with leading safety experts,” the Bentonville, Ark., company said earlier this month, to allow customers to enter, flow through and exit its stores more evenly throughout the day.

Best Buy stores will open at 5 a.m., but will begin giving out entrance line numbers to customers at 3 a.m., according to the Minneapolis, Minn., company’s Web site.

BJ’s Wholesale Club Inc. stores will open at 7 a.m. throughout the three-day shopping period, closing at their regular times.

Garden City Center, in Cranston, will open at a sedate 9 a.m. on Friday and close at 9 p.m.

pgrimald@projo.com