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A life of serviceAlmond to name successor after period of mourning
Political
observers say the most likely replacement is the senator's son, Warwick
Mayor Lincoln D. Chafee. By JONATHAN SALTZMAN
Journal State House Bureau
PROVIDENCE -- Governor Almond said yesterday he will wait at least a week to appoint a successor to Sen. John H. Chafee to give Rhode Islanders time to mourn the loss of a ``true statesman.''
Almond, looking upset at a State House news conference, repeatedly brushed aside questions about whom he would name to serve the 14 months left in Chafee's term. Under state law, the governor must appoint someone to serve until the next general election.
``I haven't given any thought to that, and I won't until we've had a period of mourning,'' Almond said in the State Room, which was crammed with officials that included several tearful current and former aides to Chafee.
The soonest the Republican governor will make an announcement is next week, and he might wait until the following week, said his spokeswoman, Lisa Pelosi, a former Chafee staff member.
``The governor will be using the coming days to determine who will best fill this vacancy,'' she said.
Even though he had already announced he would not seek a fifth term in the Senate, Chafee's death Sunday night at the age of 77 has suddenly altered the state's political landscape.
Seven months ago, the moderate Republican said he would retire at the end of next year, prompting several politicians, including his son Lincoln D. Chafee, the mayor of Warwick, to announce they would run for the open seat.
Political observers say the most likely appointee is the 46-year-old Chafee, the only big-name Republican to declare his candidacy for the Senate.
As mayor of the state's second-biggest city for four terms, the soft-spoken, self-deprecating Chafee was already considered a formidable contender, particularly for a Republican in a mostly Democratic state.
A recent public opinion poll by Brown University showed Chafee tied with Democratic U.S. Rep. Robert Weygand, who is leading a field of three declared Democratic candidates.
If Almond appointed Chafee to serve the rest of his father's term, political analysts say, he would have a chance to demonstrate his abilities in the Senate and gain traction. If he blundered, of course, the added exposure would hurt him.
Incumbency would also make it easier for him to raise the $2 million to $3 million that analysts say is needed to mount a serious senatorial campaign.
``You're going from a level playing field to one that's a strong advantage for Lincoln Chafee,'' said Marc Genest, a political science professor at the University of Rhode Island. ``Linc can hit the ground running. He could make an imprint on the office in a very short time.''
Mayor Chafee, in a telephone interview, said he was stunned by his father's death and had not begun to consider the political implications. He had not spoken to Almond, he said.
William Lynch, the chairman of the state Democratic Party, predicted that one of the Democrats in the race -- Weygand, former Lt. Gov. Richard Licht or East Providence Mayor Rolland Grant -- would still win the general election if Chafee were appointed. But, he acknowledged, it would give the Republican a boost.
Weygand and Licht, meanwhile, studiously avoided discussing what impact the possible appointment of Lincoln Chafee would have on the Senate race. They said it was unseemly to discuss politics so soon after John Chafee's death and chose to reflect on his achievements in office.
Even if Almond offered the appointment to Lincoln Chafee, some analysts said, it's possible the mayor might decline it.
If he turned it down, the thinking goes, Chafee would avoid the appearance of gaining an unfair advantage over his Democratic opponents. He could present himself as a model of probity, an image his father enjoyed in Rhode Island during more than four decades of public service.
But, said some political analysts, other factors make that scenario doubtful.
For one thing, the benefits of incumbency are simply too great to sacrifice. And it's far less likely that Lincoln Chafee would experience a backlash for temporarily gaining his father's seat through death as opposed to, say, resignation.
If Chafee declined the appointment, moreover, Almond would face the daunting task of appointing a caretaker who would serve the rest of John Chafee's term and not seek reelection.
Finding a suitable bench warmer would be hard because ``there are so few prominent Republicans left'' in the state, said Darrell West, a Brown University political science professor and pollster. ``Most of them got wiped out in last year's elections.''
Three of the state's most prominent Republicans -- former Lt. Gov. Bernard Jackvony, former Gen. Treas. Nancy J. Mayer and Narragansett businessman James Bennett -- lost bids for general offices last November.
Forces outside Rhode Island also make it unlikely that Almond would appoint a caretaker for the seat, West said; the Republican National Committee is sure to pressure Almond to fill the seat as quickly as possible with someone who has a good shot at winning next year.
THE LAST U.S. senator from Rhode Island to die in office was LeBaron Bradford Colt, a Bristol Republican, in 1924. He was succeeded by Jesse H. Metcalf, of Providence, in a special election.
In 1949, Gov. John O. Pastore appointed Edward L. Leahy to succeed Sen. James Howard McGrath, who resigned to become U.S. attorney general in the Truman Administration. Pastore succeeded Leahy the following year as senator.
Chafee is the 293rd senator to die in office since 1789, according to Donald Ritchie, the assistant Senate historian. About half of those appointed to serve the remainder of unexpired terms went on to win the seat in the general election.
Their success rate is far better than it is for governors who appoint themselves senators, Ritchie said; 9 of 10 such incumbents lose their bids in the general election.
With reports from John E. Mulligan, Journal Washington Bureau
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