Let’s see, how about 55 degrees? At 55 degrees, you won’t see your breath inside the house. And if you wear heavy-duty hiking socks, flannel-lined jeans and two shirts and a sweater, you probably won’t shiver as you eat or watch TV or read the paper. And if you can make that sweater a turtleneck, it will reduce one of the true miseries of winter heating cutbacks — cold air on the back of the neck. Cold air on the back of the neck is chilling confirmation that need is running far ahead of resources.

It is going to be a bad winter, maybe the worst in recent memory in terms of people left in the cold. The coming winter will bring a perfect “tsunami” of bad news, according to people involved in dealing with the cold. Heating costs are going through the roof and the economy is tanking. Anxiety is running high in social service agencies.

“This is going to be a completely insane winter,” says Jaime Cassidy, director of social services at the Salvation Army.

It is not easy to think about in the warmth of August, but there is nothing but grim news ahead when it comes to heating. Empty pockets and empty oil tanks will come together in too many places. It is way past time to start thinking about it. People who were not a part of dealing with the problem before will have to join in.

“We’re a little nervous about what this winter will be to a lot of people,” says Matteo Guglielmetti, head of the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Plan for the Rhode Island state energy office.

The state is due to receive $13.5 million in energy assistance for the low-income.

“It is far below the need,” says Guglielmetti.

Rhode Island, along with the rest of the New England states and states in the Midwest, has asked for more federal heating assistance money. They have not heard if there will be any additional funds or if they will have to make do with much too little.

If there is any good news in this bleak forecast, says Guglielmetti, it is that heating oil prices haven’t reached the $5-a-gallon budget buster that many predicted. But that is little solace. The prices are still obscenely high — 50 percent higher than a year ago, at just under $4 a gallon — and they are drawing middle-income working families into the energy squeeze.

Cassidy, who probably sees the problem as closely as anyone, says she worries that people will lose houses because of their inability to heat them.

“There could be a real downward spiral,” she says.

The Salvation Army has stopped payments from its Good Neighbor Energy Fund, says Cassidy, so that it will have some funds in reserve once the weather gets cold.

It has become an annual event, this looking ahead to the time when the heat has to go on and the bills start to claim a devastating chunk of family budgets. But there is a sense that this will be a year when all the signs are bad and cold weather will be a far more brutal story than before.

Guglielmetti says the state is planning an energy expo in October or November to highlight problems and solutions. There will be public service announcements about conservation.

But this is a crazy, frightening year and there will have to be extraordinary measures.

“The community really needs to come together,” says Cassidy. “And the state needs to open more shelters this year.”

In other words, if you don’t think you’ll have any problem paying your heating bills this year, you might want to consider helping those who definitely will have problems. It could make for a warmer winter.

bkerr@projo.com