PROVIDENCE –– More than 4,000 ballots are expected to be counted today.

They may determine the salary and benefits for roughly one-third of the state government work force over the next four years. Or they may push labor relations into “uncharted territory,” jeopardizing millions of dollars in negotiated savings that Governor Carcieri needs to balance the state budget.

Rhode Island’s largest state workers’ union –– Council 94, American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees –– will know this afternoon whether its 4,100 members ratified a four-year contract that concedes more than $10 million in salary and benefits this year alone.

The outcome of the election is very much in question.

Key union leaders brokered a tentative agreement with the governor’s office late last month, but many rank-and-file members have lashed out against the deal that gives no cost-of-living increase in the first year (but an 8.5-percent increase over the final three years) and forces higher health-care contributions that wipe out salary increases for some lower-paid employees.

Workers in recent weeks distributed a flier that read: “OUTRAGEOUS MEDICAL CO-PAYS!...NO RAISES IN 2008! OUTRAGEOUS LEADERSHIP!”

“I know it’s a tough deal,” said National Education Association executive director Robert A. Walsh, who helped negotiate the agreement. “But we still encouraged them to approve it because we feel it was the best deal to be had.”

Council 94 leaders refused to comment yesterday on the looming vote tally. The governor’s office also refused to answer specific questions, reserving comment until after the election results were released.

Council 94 is an umbrella organization that includes 24 local unions across state government, representing groups such as the security guards at Rhode Island College to food service workers at the state Veteran’s Home. The individual locals have voted separately in recent weeks –– the final votes were cast yesterday –– but the results will be tabulated today at Council 94’s North Providence headquarters.

Representatives of the locals are scheduled to drop off their ballots in the early afternoon. Council 94 officials then plan to mix the ballots, before counting them. The process is expected to be complete by late afternoon.

Meanwhile, there are 13 other independent unions that represent various pockets of state workers that have no connection to Council 94. Each independent union must vote separately to ratify the deal.

It is unclear what would happen should the largest state employees’ union –– or the independents –– reject the deal. The governor, in a recent interview, declined to speculate on the possibility.

But labor leaders acknowledge that Carcieri may have the authority to force concessions, given the administration’s recent issuance of contract termination letters to each union effective this past June 30, the date when most unions’ three-year deal expired.

“This is unprecedented,” said Local 580 president Lucie Burdick, of the contract termination letters, which she said influenced her decision to support the agreement.

“We had a letter that said we had no contract language effective June 30,” she said. “How do you behave with no contract language? That’s huge.”

Burdick’s 935 members, who are not affiliated with Council 94, voted separately last week to ratify the deal. Altogether, 5 of the 13 independent unions have already ratified the agreement, according to a list provided yesterday by the governor’s office.

Aside from Local 580, they include affiliates of the Laborers’ International Union of North America; Local 400, the International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers; and the Department of Administration Supervisors.

The AFL-CIO confirmed yesterday that Service Employees International/National Association of Government Employees Local 79 also voted to ratify the deal. Others plan to vote over the next week.

But they haven’t all voted yes.

Earlier in the month, two affiliates of the National Education Association — one that represents the Association of Clerical-Technical Employees at the University of Rhode Island and another that represents Department of Health employees — said no.

And yesterday, members of the Rhode Island Probation and Parole Association overwhelmingly rejected the deal, its union president Sean Rocchio said last night. The union represents two groups: probation and parole officers and supervisors, and clerical workers, both of whom rejected the proposal.

NEA head Walsh assumed that those unions that rejected the deal would return to the bargaining table with the governor’s office, where they could seek mediation and then nonbinding arbitration on a compromise.

“After that, then you’re in uncharted territory,” Walsh said. “There’s some thought that the state would say, ‘That’s our last best offer, you’re going to have to live with it. Take us to court if you want.’ ”

But those who voted no may have another option, according to AFL-CIO secretary-treasurer George Nee, another one of the deal’s architects.

“At the end of the day, the agreement contemplated that everything would be done by the 30th of July. So until we reach that date, perhaps people could change their minds and do another vote,” he said. “I would see no problem with that.”

Meanwhile, today’s Council 94 vote has no direct impact on the other independent unions, which represent the other two-thirds of the state work force. Each union voted on the same master agreement, although many had “mini contracts” customized to various working conditions.

Among the highlights of the master agreement were: pay raises of zero, 2.5 percent, 3 percent and 3 percent during each of the next four years; a one-day pay reduction in the current year that employees can recoup as a paid leave day; and escalating increases in the percentage of premium the employees will be required to pay for their health insurance.

“I don’t think it’s going to pass [Council] 94,” said Richard Ferruccio, president of the Rhode Island Brotherhood of Correctional Officers, which includes a group of around 80 professional employees set to vote next week. “When you look at the hard numbers, the lowered salary people are really taking a hit … I don’t think it’s a good deal for the union, but it may be the only deal that’s negotiable in this time.”

—With reports from staff writer Lisa Vernon-Sparks. Highlights of today’s vote

•Estimated 4,000 votes to be counted this afternoon

•Vote affects roughly one-third of state work force

•‘No’ vote could jeopardize more than $10 million in budgeted savings

•Council 94 includes 24 local unions, many lower-paid clerical workers

•Governor won’t say whether he would force cuts if members vote no

speoples@projo.com