PROVIDENCE — As Rhode Islanders turned on their televisions Wednesday evening, a solemn Governor Carcieri faced the camera and promised to close the state’s $357-million budget deficit without raising taxes.

But for that plan to work, the Carcieri administration is depending on massive state aid cuts, quick cash infusions and potentially seismic changes across state and local government –– changes that could lead to the exodus of up to 1,659 state employees by April 1 and as many as 1,011 teachers before the end of the school year.

The prospect sent shivers through the halls of the State House and beyond yesterday as Rhode Islanders wondered what will happen if state lawmakers approve the budget-cutting plan.

“I’m worried, can it work?” Providence Rep. Thomas C. Slater asked.

State pension administrator Frank Karpinski reported that his office has been barraged with phone calls from those fearful that their pensions will be affected.

For most, the answer was yes.

That’s because Carcieri is proposing a change that if approved by lawmakers would create a minimum retirement age of 59 and eliminate the annual 3-percent cost-of-living increases for municipal and state retirees who leave after April 1 and $1,500 annual increases for retired state troopers.

Among the hardest hit would be Rhode Island’s schools, which could see a rash of retirements 10 weeks before the school year ends.

“If the governor goes forward with his proposal, he will create chaos in the classroom,” said Marcia Reback, president of the Rhode Island Federation of Teachers and Health Professionals.

“It would present severe difficulties for schools which are required to fulfill a 180-day school year,” Education Commissioner Peter McWalters acknowledged.

At the Board of Regents for Elementary and Secondary Education’s monthly meeting last night, regents said they hope the bill would be revised, at least for teachers, to a June 30 retirement date.

National Education Association of Rhode Island President Larry Purtill questioned why the governor would want to “force people out with three months left in the school year?”

Purtill noted that half the teachers in the state will retire without Social Security because their districts opted not to contribute on their behalf.

“If you are going to say, hey, we are all in this together, fine,” but “I don’t hear him saying, hey, business community, how can you help?” Purtill said.

Rhode Island’s schools are not alone.

State Police Supt. Brendan Doherty said 21 members of his staff would be eligible to retire, including his entire command staff.

With 26 vacancies already, “I would have to reevaluate personnel commitments in some areas,” he said.

Doherty said he has no plans to leave, but one of his top deputies, department spokesman Lt. Col. Steven O’Donnell, 48, said he would have to take a look at his own circumstances.

“People can stay and lose their cost-of-living increase,” he said. “Everybody has to make a decision.”

Even more worrisome in the long run, said J. Michael Downey, president of Council 94, the largest state employees union, is the administration’s decision to slash pension contributions by 75 percent in the final months of this year. “It’s appropriate that the changes will take place on April Fool’s Day,” he said.

Carcieri spokeswoman Amy Kempe said the April 1 deadline for pension changes is necessary to achieve $54 million in savings by June 30.

To close the massive state deficit, Carcieri is also banking on a quick infusion of cash from the sale of thee state-owned properties to Rhode Island Housing, the semi-independent state agency, for a total of $16 million.

In theory, Rhode Island Housing would borrow the money to buy the parcels, then lease them back to the state.

“That’s a gimmick,” said Slater. “It may be creating short-term money, but that’s crazy, selling our buildings then renting them back? You’re just pushing your debt down the line, creating problems in the out years.”

The parcels include a parking garage next to the Garrahy Courthouse in Providence and two at the Pastore complex in Cranston, one being eyed as the new home for the motor vehicle registry.

If approved by lawmakers, Rhode Island Housing could also lease the properties to developers.

That’s if the agency can secure the funding. RIH Executive Director Richard Godfrey said the agency has not yet figured out whether it will seek a loan or float bonds to finance the purchase, and acknowledged that securing the money could prove challenging in this economic climate.

Carcieri’s plan also hinges on congressional approval of a stimulus package that includes $27.5 million in new Medicaid dollars for Rhode Island. But that of course is iffy. And action may not come until mid-February at the earliest.

Other details of the governor’s plan were still emerging in dribs and drabs yesterday, with groups such as the hospital association calling his attempt to cut $35.7 million in state payments out of their negotiated Medicaid reimbursement package a “staggering blow to hospitals struggling in a weakened economy,” according to Edward J. Quinlan, president of the Hospital Association of Rhode Island.

The proposal would also slash Medicaid payments to nursing homes by 5 percent, delay a promised cost-of-living increase and reduce the percentage of labor costs the state reimburses by an overall $5.4 million.

“Whatever the state hopes to save, double it because that is what we lose because Medicaid matches the money,” said Virginia M. Burke, president of the Rhode Island Health Care Association. “I just don’t know how nursing homes will be able to take care of the frail elderly entrusted to us.”

Now the proposal lies in the hands of state lawmakers who will hold their first briefing Tuesday. In the interim, key legislators have said little about it.

House Speaker William J. Murphy acknowledges that each piece of the proposal will require thorough review. “We need to be sure there are no unintended consequences and that the governor’s recommendations are in fact achievable,” he said.

—With reports from Jennifer D. Jordan

kgregg@projo.com