Extra: Election
R.I. voters by the numbers
10:57 AM EST on Monday, November 6, 2006
Meet Mary Engle, Rhode Island’s most average voter.
She is, by her own description, a housewife and volunteer. She is married to a business owner. She has two teenage daughters. When she votes tomorrow, she plans to cast ballots for some Republicans and some Democrats, though she won’t say who. “I’d have a lot of people mad at me.”
She qualifies as Rhode Island’s most average voter based on a Providence Journal analysis of the state’s central voter registration list. While political pundits have been using opinion polls to predict how people will vote tomorrow, The Journal wanted to take a look at who is eligible to vote in the Ocean State. The paper calculated the most common or average in the following six categories:
Age: 49
Journal photo / Mary Murphy
Mary Engle, outside her Providence home, is the "most average" voter in Rhode Island, based on an analysis of six statistical criteria in the state's central voter registration list.
Gender: Female
First name: Mary
Party: Unaffiliated
City: Providence
Zodiac sign: Virgo
Engle matched all six.
A graduate of Wheaton College, where she caught the political bug, she hopes to instill the importance of voting in her daughters.
“I believe strongly in voting,” she said. “It’s one of the ways you can have a say in your community. A lot of countries don’t have this right that we have. If you really want to make a change, you can make a change.”
Engle, a native Rhode Islander, has voted in each of the last three general elections, according to the secretary of state’s records, which generally don’t go back farther.
Like many Rhode Islanders, she is unaffiliated because the parties don’t mean much to her. “I actually vote for the person.” She spreads her votes around, typical of a state that has a Republican governor, a Democratic lieutenant governor and one U.S. senator from each party.
She said she researches the candidate and has watched one of the televised debates in the race for U.S. Senate between Sheldon Whitehouse and Lincoln D. Chafee, which is the race she finds most interesting.
The most average voter is one of many facts — some lighthearted, some serious — uncovered by The Journal’s analysis.
Among other findings:
The average age of Democrats and Republicans are about the same, the voters of both parties are about five years older than the average unaffiliated voter.
Rhode Island is not a “Democratic state,” it’s an “unaffiliated state,” with voters who did not list a party outnumbering Democrats by almost 60,000.
Capricorns have the greatest chance of being Democrats, Cancers the greatest chance of being Republicans, and Leos unaffiliated. (That’s the zodiac sign Leo. People named Leo favor Democrats, with 319, compared with 310 unaffiliated and 98 Republicans.)
Speaking of names, 1,508 voters share the same last name as one of the candidates in the top four races on the ticket. Included among them are Linda and Judy Carcieri. The sisters, who live in Cranston, are about as Carcieri as they come. Not only was their father’s name Carcieri, but their mother’s maiden name was Carcieri, too.
So it may come as no surprise that the sisters, although not registered as Republicans, plan to vote tomorrow for Governor Carcieri over his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Charles J. Fogarty.
But, if family names were the deciding factor, the governor would be in trouble. Fogartys outnumber Carcieris among registered voters 137 to 95.
If voters’ last names were decisive, Carcieri would not be the only incumbent in trouble. Rep. Patrick J. Kennedy’s surname is not as popular as challenger Jonathan P. Scott’s, which holds a 606-to-437 advantage. By contrast, the state’s other U.S. representative, James R. Langevin’s last name is ahead of Rod Driver’s by 90 to 10.
The last name race for U.S. Senate, where Republican Chafee is facing Democrat Whitehouse, is steeped in intrigue worthy of a Rhode Island political battle.
Chafee and Whitehouse are tied at 16 registered voters each.
But Whitehouses are far less party loyal than Chafees.
Only eight Whitehouses are registered as Democrats, with two Republicans and six unaffiliated.
Chafees, on the other hand, have 13 registered Republicans and only one Democrat — and she’s dead.
Susan B. Chafee’s obituary in 2004 noted, “She enjoyed baseball and politics.” So, it may not be that surprising she is still listed as an active voter and eligible to cast a ballot in Narragansett tomorrow, according to a statewide list produced Oct. 16 by the secretary of state’s office.
Susan Chafee is not the only dead person eligible to vote tomorrow. Bertha H. Neal, who would have turned 102 tomorrow, is listed as eligible to vote in Smithfield. Neal died in 1997. Though she lasted voted in 1996, she is classified as an active voter.
Neal is 1 of 1,843 registered voters whose birthday is the same date as this year’s election. The birthday voters have an average age of 49.5, which compares to the average of 48.9 for all voters. Of the birthday voters, 41 percent are Democrats, 15 percent are Republicans, and 45 percent are unaffiliated. For all voters, the breakdown is 38 percent Democrat, 15 percent Republican and 47 percent unaffiliated.
The overall age breakdown shows Democrats and Republicans each averaging 51 years old, but unaffiliated voters only 46 years.
Sixty-three percent of voters 65 and older are registered with a party, compared with 55 percent of those 45 to 64, 50 percent of those 30 to 44 and 43 percent of those younger than 30. And the party that older voters gravitate toward is the Democrats, which saw their share increase from 33 percent of those younger than 30 to 46 percent of those 65 and older. Republicans saw their share climb from 10 percent of those younger than 30 to 17 percent of those 65 and older.
Overall, 17 percent of voters are younger than 30, 28 percent are 30 to 44, 36 percent are 45 to 64 and 20 percent are 65 and older.
The municipality with the oldest voters is Little Compton, where they average 52.0 years old. Central Falls is at the other end, with an average age of 46.6.
The community with the highest percentage of Democrats is Johnston, where 60 percent of voters are registered with the party. The most Republican municipality is East Greenwich, with 35 percent. The place with the most unaffiliated voters is Glocester, where 67 percent registered without choosing a party. On the flip side, the least Democratic municipality is West Greenwich, with 16 percent; least Republican, Central Falls, 6 percent, and least unaffiliated, Johnston, 32 percent.
Not all Rhode Island voters live in Rhode Island; 854 of them list mailing addresses outside the state. Most of those are military addresses or addresses at military bases or in college towns. Out-of-state voters, at an average of 34.6 years old, are almost 15 years younger than the overall average. Pawtucket has the most out-of-state voters, with 120, while Exeter has none.
The most popular states for out-of-state voters are Massachusetts, with 176; New York, 87; Connecticut, 63; Florida, 53, and Virginia, 30. The most popular countries are the United Kingdom, 8, and Canada, 7. But 94 out-of-state voters have military post office addresses, so they could be anywhere in the world.
The voter registration list also provides insight into the popularity of names in the Ocean State.
The 10 most popular last names, in order, are Smith, Brown, Johnson, Martin, Silva, Sullivan, Williams, Medeiros, Anderson and Murphy. When only Democrats were counted, Silva and Medeiros climbed to fourth and fifth, and Rodriguez and Costa joined the Top 10, pushing out Anderson, which dropped to 18th, and Murphy, 12th. On the Republican side, Miller, White and King joined the Top 10, displacing Silva, which dropped to 20th; Williams, 11th, and Medeiros, 24th.
Looking at men’s first names, the Top 10 are: John, Robert, Michael, David, Joseph, James, William, Richard, Thomas and Paul. Those same names are in each Top 10 when the lists are broken down by party, though a handful of names swap position on the list.
The women’s Top 10 are: Mary, Patricia, Susan, Barbara, Elizabeth, Jennifer, Linda, Maria, Lisa and Donna. As with the men, the lists are essentially the same when divided by party, though the order varies more than for the men. As an example, Maria is No. 2 for Democrats, while Barbara is for Republicans. Mary stays at the top on both lists.
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