With contests in seven states today, a new phase begins in the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination.

01:00 AM EST on Tuesday, February 3, 2004

BY JOHN E. MULLIGAN
Journal Washington Bureau

CHARLESTON, S.C. -- All seven Democratic presidential candidates compete today in seven contests scattered from Delaware to Arizona, including a showdown in South Carolina between Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry, the front-runner, and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

But for the first time in a campaign that began more than a year ago in the community centers and living rooms of Iowa and New Hampshire, the Democrats today turn their focus on a larger goal than the standings in any single state: the magic number 2,161.

That's the number of delegates it will take to win a majority -- and the Democratic presidential nomination -- when the roll of states is called at the party's national convention in Boston in July.

Today, when about 12 percent of the total nominating majority will be chosen, the leading candidates will be judged by some combination of winning finishes in the seven states and number of delegates won. A seven-state sweep is not out of the question for Kerry. But polls show him essentially tied in Oklahoma with retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark, and, here in South Carolina, Edwards seems the likeliest competitor to beat Kerry outright.

"Obviously, winning states is great. You get a lot of benefit from that. But winning delegates is how you win the nomination," said Kerry campaign consultant Tad Devine. So after his victories in Iowa's Jan. 19 precinct caucuses and New Hampshire's Jan. 27 primary confirmed him as front-runner, Kerry adopted a strategy to match.

"Basically, we are playing everywhere" in hopes of winning delegates in each state toward the ultimate goal of nomination, Devine said. Kerry has therefore traveled more extensively and advertised more broadly than his opponents.

Polls give Kerry solid leads in Arizona and in Missouri, the biggest state voting today and the one that most closely mirrors the makeup -- in politics, demographics and other measures -- of the country at large.

Missouri has stolen much of the attention that the political world had been expected to lavish on South Carolina during this week's round of primaries. The state was largely ignored until its favorite son, Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, was forced out of the race by his poor finish in Iowa. Suddenly, Missouri's 74 delegates were up for grabs. Missouri also compels interest as a large, diverse state that almost always swings into the camp of the winning presidential candidate in November.

Kerry's principal rivals have been reduced to variations on a smaller-bore strategy: find a place to beat the leader and work from there to become the chief alternative to Kerry. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who led in the polls everywhere until his distant third-place finish in Iowa, essentially suspended campaigning in the states that vote today. He will marshal his resources for challenges to Kerry this weekend in Michigan and Washington state and Feb. 17 in Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Dean has begun to criticize Kerry sharply on several issues in an attempt to raise questions about his candidacy.

By the end of March 2, when Rhode Island, Massachussetts, New York and California are among the states that vote, roughly half of the delegates will have been chosen.

Clark, who skipped Iowa and finished out of the money in New Hampshire, will take his stand against Kerry today in Oklahoma. Of all the candidates who appeared to have a credible campaign, Connecticut Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman is perhaps in the weakest position today. He has focused on Delaware, the smallest of today's primary states, with only 15 delegates on the line.

But Lieberman, the most conservative of the Democrats running, got a boost in conservative South Carolina with late endorsements from major daily newspapers in Greenville and the capital city of Columbia.

Edwards, who finished a surprising second in Iowa and a respectable third in New Hampshire, has staked everything on South Carolina, where he was born and spent part of his childhood before his family moved to North Carolina.

Yesterday morning, though hoarse-voiced, he used his message of optimistic populism to bring a youthful crowd of several hundred to its feet on the picturesque city campus of the College of Charleston. In his mild way, Edwards also went after Kerry later, reminding reporters that Kerry has spent heavily here in advertising and nailed down the support of key statewide political leaders.

But Edwards, a first-term senator, said, "I think if we want to change Washington, we need somebody who hasn't been there for 14 or 20 years." Kerry, who was elected in 1984, has come in over the past few days for some critical news stories -- and resulting brickbats from rivals -- about his acceptance of campaign contributions from businesses and Washington lobbyists.

While Edwards has indicated that he will end his campaign if he does not win South Carolina, he has also said he expected to win delegates in other states, and polls suggested that he could do so in Missouri, Oklahoma and perhaps Arizona.

Under Democratic nominating rules, the great bulk of delegates are awarded in proportion to a candidate's share of the popular primary or caucus vote -- with one major condition. To win any delegates, a candidate must first cross the threshold of polling 15 percent of the electorate.

The rules make it possible for a candidate to win a big victory in terms of percentage points, as Kerry has done in Iowa and New Hampshire, but win a delegate lead more marginally. That is why the strategy of gradual delegate accumulation -- without major wins -- could be plausible for Dean, who may claim a sizable base of loyal supporters around the country.

The 15-percent rule could present a big obstacle to the candidacy of civilrights activist Al Sharpton, who has repeatedly stressed his desire to bring a bloc of delegates to Boston and demand the party's -- and the nominee's -- attention to issues that concern black voters. Several independent polls have shown him below the threshold in South Carolina, where blacks represent almost a third of the population and could cast 40 percent or more of the primary votes.

But Sharpton said yesterday that he believes the polls are underestimating his support with his black base.

During a news conference in front of a one-time slave market in this old port city, Sharpton said that the mobilization of "an expanded party base" -- including blacks -- is "the only way we can win" next fall's general election campaign against President Bush.