Also, voters are evenly split on whether to approve a constititional amendment that would allow casino gambling.

01:00 AM EDT on Thursday, June 22, 2006

BY SCOTT MacKAY
Journal Staff Writer

PROVIDENCE -- Call 2006 the year of unpredictable elections: A Rhode Island College public-opinion survey released yesterday shows very close state races for governor, U.S. Senate and the referendum that would allow the Narragansett Indians to build a West Warwick casino in partnership with Harrah's Entertainment.

Among the findings of the poll, conducted by veteran RIC political science professor and pollster Victor Profughi:

The governor's race between Democratic Lt. Gov. Charles Fogarty and Republican Governor Carcieri, the likely GOP nominee, is a statistical dead heat.

In the Senate race, incumbent Republican Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee and the Democratic favorite, former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, are locked in a virtual tie. But if Cranston Mayor Stephen P. Laffey, Chafee's GOP primary challenger, wins the nomination, he would be defeated by nearly 2-to-1 by Whitehouse.

Profughi plans to release a GOP Senate primary sample today that will show the Laffey-Chafee contest close, with a low turnout benefiting Laffey and a larger voter turnout working to Chafee's advantage.

On the casino issue, voters are evenly divided on the proposed constitutional amendment that would allow Harrah's, the casino giant, to operate a West Warwick casino in association with the Narragansetts. But the same poll shows that voters prefer competitive bidding over giving the Narragansett tribe and their partners a no-bid casino license.

Voters are also overwhelmingly against the legislation favored by House leaders and Carcieri that cuts taxes for Rhode Island's wealthiest residents. Sixty-seven percent are against the cut, 25 percent support it and 8 percent are undecided.

As has been the case with other recent polls -- some of which have been made public and others done privately by political campaigns -- the campaign for governor is very competitive. Carcieri, seeking reelection, shows up at 44 percent, while Fogarty is at 39 percent with 17 percent undecided. "With only a five-percent spread, the race is clearly a statistical tie when the margin of error is factored in," said Profughi.

The bad news for Carcieri is that it is never good for an incumbent to be 6 points under 50 so close to an election. Carcieri also faces primary opposition from Dennis Michaud, a Providence business consultant, who is not well-known among GOP primary voters, but is a relentless critic of the governor. Fogarty has no primary opponent.

The survey was conducted June 12 to June 15 and sampled 406 randomly selected Rhode Island voters. The poll carries a margin of error of 5 percent, so that Carcieri, for example, may be as high as 49 percent or as low as 39 percent and Fogarty may be as low as 35 percent or as high as 44 percent. The poll was balanced regionally in the state and by gender, with 47 percent of respondents men and 53 percent women.

When asked whether they would support Chafee or Whitehouse, 43 percent said Chafee, 40 percent Whitehouse and 17 percent were undecided.

If Laffey wins the Republican primary, Whitehouse rolls to victory, the poll showed. In that race, Whitehouse draws 58 percent, Laffey 27 percent and 16 percent are undecided.

The casino referendum could not be tighter. Those polled were asked: "In November voters will have a chance to change the state Constitution to authorize Harrah's Entertainment to own and operate a Narragansett Indian Tribe resort casino in West Warwick. Casino taxes are to go for local property tax relief. If you were voting today, would you vote for or against this amendment?"

Forty-eight percent said they would support the casino, 47 percent said no, 2 percent said they would not vote on the issue and 4 percent said they are undecided.

In an interview, Profughi said he was surprised that the undecided is so low this far away from the November election.

In a finding that bodes well for Democrats, most of those surveyed said they believed that Rep. Patrick Kennedy of the 1st District should remain in office, rather than resign as requested by state Republican leaders.

Respondents were asked: "Based on what you know about Congressman Patrick Kennedy's performance in office and his continuing struggle with prescription drugs, do you believe that he should remain in office or should he step down?"

Fifty-six percent said he should remain in office and 37 percent said he should quit. The better news for Kennedy is that his 1st District constituents were even more supportive than the statewide sample, with 59 percent backing his decision to run again and 35 percent opposing.

Voters overwhelmingly oppose a law that protects health-care providers and hospitals from legal liability if they refuse to pay or perform abortions or other medical services that conflict with their convictions. Sixty percent said they oppose such a law, 29 percent said they favored it and 10 percent were undecided.

smackay@projo.com / (401) 277-7321