11:44 AM EST on Thursday, January 27, 2005

BY JOHN E. MULLIGAN
Journal Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON -- Sen. Jack Reed yesterday predicted "very violent" efforts to disrupt this weekend's elections in Iraq, followed by continued insurgent attacks that will require the United States to keep its large military presence there, perhaps for years.

Reed called a recent Pentagon pledge of a long-term military presence in Iraq "helpful prudence." He deemed that a welcome change from what he portrayed as the Bush administration skimping on Army troop strength in Iraq and its "disingenuousness" about the cost of the war.

Reed warned against any steps to withdraw or "phase out" the U.S. military force in Iraq and pledged legislative efforts this year to increase the size of the Army by at least 30,000 troops. He spoke in a telephone conference with reporters.

The Rhode Island Democrat said he sensed that Sunni Muslim dedication to the anti-American insurgency is growing in size and competence. According to Reed, small groups of insurgents will continue "to blow things up and hurt people" even if the elections appear successful -- and he cautioned that "success" will not be easy to judge quickly.

Reed also warned against concluding from positive election results that "everything's fine and dandy." Said Reed: "The biggest danger would be to say, OK, now let's get out."

Reed did speak, however, of the possibility that popular support for the war may weaken to the point that the United States cannot attain the sort of democratic government and market economy that President Bush seeks to promote in Iraq. That project could take "years and years" to accomplish, Reed said. He raised the prospect that domestic opposition to the cost of the war might one day force U.S. leaders "to face the reality of, maybe, do we settle for a less challenging" outcome?

That could mean an Iraqi government that may not meet American democratic standards but is "more benign than its predecessor and able to enforce its will on the people and have some kind of stability," Reed said.

Reed specifically applauded this week's renewed expression of the U.S. commitment by Lt. Gen. James J. Lovelace. Lovelace, the director of Army operations, said leaders assume that troop strength in Iraq will hold at the current level of 120,000 for at least two more years.

He also said the United States expects to continue to rotate active-duty soldiers through yearlong stints in Iraq and to try to tap reserve forces more.

"You're going to need more soldiers" to maintain that pace, Reed said, particularly since the strain of the Iraq deployment is beginning to show in weaker recruitment and retention rates in the National Guard and Army reserves.

Reed noted that the Army's wartime "operational tempo" depends on keeping large numbers of Guard and reserve troops on active duty. Because those soldiers tend to be older and more committed to family and career than active-duty Army, they have become the first to decide in significant numbers against reenlisting, he said.

"The heart and the core" of the Guard and reserves -- young captains and senior enlisted personnel -- are beginning to say, "I can't be called back again in six months or a year" because of the wear and tear on jobs and families, Reed said.

Largely to relieve the strain on these reserves, Reed and Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., sponsored legislation last year that expanded the Army by 50,000 troops. Reed said they will try this year to add another 30,000 troops to the currently authorized active-duty force of 502,000.

Reed called on the Bush administration to cover the added personnel, at a cost of about $1.7 billion a year, in its regular budget request, rather than paying for the troops in supplemental appropriations that are meant to handle unforeseen costs.

Reed, who sits on the Armed Services Committee, said he also intends this year to seek more hearings into the Abu Ghraib prison abuse scandal and look into Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld's creation of new combat intelligence units under the aegis of the Pentagon, as distinct from the Central Intelligence Agency.

On Abu Ghraib, Reed said it is important to ensure that any responsible officers are prosecuted, now that the first guilty verdict has been imposed on one of the enlisted soldiers who participated in the prisoner abuse.

Reed did not specifically criticize Rumsfeld's creation of the new intelligence force; he said counterterrorism requires more intelligence agents and a right to "preemption" of certain terrorist threats. But Reed said the Senate must inquire into the legal underpinning of Rumsfeld's initiative and ensure that the force is compatible with the "ethics and culture" of the uniformed military.