WASHINGTON -- The conservative Club for Growth has released highlights of a poll that shows Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee in a statistical dead heat with his Republican primary challenger, Stephen P. Laffey.
The Washington-based group, which has endorsed Laffey, said its survey of 300 very likely Republican primary voters showed that Chafee would get 45.7 of the vote if the election ``were held today'' and Laffey, the mayor of Cranston, would get 44.3 percent.
It showed Chafee with a 45 percent favorable rating among those sampled and 51 percent unfavorable, with the balance undecided.
Laffey polls 54 percent favorable and 27 percent unfavorable.
Club for Growth President Pat Toomey said Laffey ``has pulled even or slightly ahead of Senator Chafee, despite a barrage of negative attack ads'' aired against Laffey by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which backs the incumbent senator.
Likewise, Chafee campaign spokesman Ian Lang said the poll shows the senator ``in a strong position to win the primary, despite being hammered'' by ads financed by the Club for Growth. Lang called the poll ``a best-case scenario'' for Laffey because the sample had a high proportion of Republicans.
Independents, who make up about 51 percent of the state's electorate, can vote in either party primary. Republicans are about 11 percent of the electorate.
Independent campaign analyst Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report said there is much uncertainty in the polling community about how many independents will vote in the GOP primary. Even the best-constructed polls must therefore be viewed with caution, she said.
The survey by National Research Inc. had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.66 percent and was conducted from May 21 to 24 among voters who said they were ``very likely'' to vote in the Sept. 12 GOP primary. Eighty-four percent of the sample said they were registered Republicans; 16 percent said they were affiliated with no political party.
The Club for Growth only released highlights of its poll such as the head-to-head matchup between Chafee and Laffey. It declined to make public all of its survey questions.
Laffey's campaign said in a statement, ``There are good polls and bad polls, and we don't pay much attention to any of them.''
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