PROVIDENCE -- U.S. Rep. James Langevin would hold a strong lead over
incumbent U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee if he ran today against Chafee for
Senate, according to a new statewide survey by Brown University.
Forty-one percent of the voters polled by Brown indicated they would
vote for Langevin, while 27 percent said they would vote for Chafee,
according to the random sample of 384 Rhode Island voters Saturday and
Sunday.
The survey also polls the job performance of several state politicians
and reveals that voters prefer Governor Carcieri against two potential
challengers in another governor's race.
Mixing politics with sports, the survey says that 35 percent of Rhode
Islanders expect the Boston Red Sox to win the World Series again next
year, and 58 percent expect the New England Patriots to repeat as Super
Bowl champions.
The survey was conducted by Darrell M. West, director of Brown's Taubman
Center for Public Policy and the John Hazen White, Sr. Public Opinion
Laboratory. The poll had a margin of error of about plus or minus 5
percentage points.
The Democratic Party is reportedly urging Langevin to run against the
Republican Chafee in the 2006 Senate race, but the congressman says he
will not announce his intentions until April 1.
The numbers for Langevin
If Langevin decides to run, he should have strong support from both men
and women, according to the poll. Among women, Langevin has a 41 to 24
percent lead, while men favor him 41 to 32 percent.
With Republican voters, Chafee leads Langevin by 43 to 30 percent, while
Langevin is ahead of Chafee by 61 to 18 percent with Democrats and 36 to
31 percent among Independents, according to the survey.
Pollster West calls Langevin's 14-point overall lead over the sitting
senator "very impressive."
"Langevin did very well because he has very few negatives and Lincoln
Chafee's negatives are starting to rise," West said today. "Chafee has
alienated part of his Republican base but not yet won over Democrats so
he's trapped between the left and the right."
West also noted that the survey showed that Langevin has a 59 percent
job approval rating compared to Chafee's 48 percent.
Poll results indicate Chafee would fare much better against Secretary of
State Matthew Brown, a Democrat who announced Feb. 3 that he would run
for Chafee's seat, the only candidate so far to announce a challenge to
Chafee.
If Brown were the Democratic candidate, Chafee would hold a 39 to 25
percent lead, according to the survey.
Among women, Chafee is ahead of Brown by 42 to 26 percent, while among
men, Chafee leads by 38 to 24 percent, the survey shows.
With Republicans, Chafee leads Brown 54 to 13 percent and Chafee also is
ahead of Brown by 44 to 18 percent among Independents. Brown is ahead of
Chafee among Democrats by 43 to 31 percent.
"Brown isn't very well known. Fewer people know him than either Chafee
or Langevin," West said. "Brown is going to have to spend a
lot of money just to raise his visibility level."
Measuring how Carcieri would fare
The Brown survey also shows that, if an election were held today,
Governor Carcieri would hold a lead over two Democratics mentioned as
possible challengers to the incumbent Republican in 2006.
"Carcieri is in very good shape for re-election," West said. "He has a
very high job approval rating, and he leads either one of his two most
well-known challengers."
If the Democratic candidate were Lt. Gov. Charles Fogarty, Carcieri
leads 44 to 33 percent, according to the survey.
Among Republicans, Carcieri leads Fogarty by 89 to 6 percent, while
Fogarty is ahead with Democrats by 55 to 24 percent, the survey says.
Carcieri also is ahead with independents, by a 49 to 29 percent margin,
the survey says.
With men, Carcieri has a lead to 51 to 33 percent over Fogarty, and with
women, governor leads 40 to 36 percent, according to the survey.
If the candidate were former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse,
Carcieri has a margin of 46 to 30 percent, the survey says.
Carcieri leads Whitehouse among Republicans by 78 to 11 percent and
among Independents by 55 to 22 percent. Among Democrats, Whitehouse is
ahead by 56 to 26 percent, according to the survey.
With men, Carcieri is ahead by 51 to 31 percent, while among women, the
governor leads by 45 to 31 percent, the survey says.
Carcieri fares well although his job approval has slipped slightly.
Fifty-seven percent of those polled believe that Carcieri is doing a
good job, down from 60 percent last year.
Fogarty's approval rating increased slightly from 44 to 46 percent.
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