 Looking Ahead
02/06/98
Are we ready
now?
By PETER B.
LORD
Journal-Bulletin Staff Writer
Could the Blizzard of '78 happen again?
Absolutely, says Raymond N. LaBelle, director of Rhode Island's Emergency Management
Agency. Just a couple of weeks ago, LaBelle pointed out, several inches of rain fell
on Rhode Island. If it was just a bit colder, that would have been 30 or 40 inches
of snow.
When it might happen is not something you'd want to bet on. According to climatologist
Jeff Schultz, there's no way of predicting whether such a storm can be expected once
every 50 years, or 500 years. Schultz says, "We don't really have records to
calculate a probability."
Would it be as devastating today?
A lot has changed in 20 years.
Four-wheel-drive vehicles and cellular telephones are commonplace. The state has
devised a new snowplowing strategy and backed it up with hundreds of additional trucks.
The state's early-warning and communication systems are far more sophisticated.
There have been advances in weather forecasting too, although there was no lack of
warning for the storm 20 years ago. People simply ignored the predictions of "near-blizzard
conditions." It wasn't snowing when Rhode Islanders woke up, so they figured
the forecasts were wrong and went about their business. Hours later the snow fell
as fast as 3 inches an hour, and thousands were stranded.
"I know we would have followed a different strategy now," says LaBelle.
He says the state has a communication system that will do a better job of alerting
local officials, even when skies look clear. And now there are more agreements in
place to bring in outside assistance quicker.
"If we needed help, we'd call on folks from Canada. They owe us bigtime,"
says LaBelle. "If it's bad to the north, we could call in help from Pennsylvania."
But the man responsible for keeping state highways clean still isn't satisfied that
we can handle a really big storm.
Thomas E. Jackvony Jr., who supervises the state's snowplowing operations, says he'll
never forget the effort it took to clean up after the Blizzard. ("The state
Auditor General finally agreed to pay our people for 23.5 hours a day. He insisted
they must have slept a half hour a day. But they didn't.")
Right after the storm, the state bought more trucks -- bigger trucks, with better
plows. It put emergency generators at its garages. It signed up hundreds of private
contractors, particularly those with big, powerful trucks. It also devised a new
strategy. Instead of trying to keep all state highways open, it will concentrate
on the state's "lifeline," the interstates, during blizzards.
But Jackvony worries that even the state's best won't be enough if we get hit with
nature's worst.
"We have the capability now of putting 450 to 500 trucks on our highway system,
statewide," he said. "But even that won't do a job against 3 inches an
hour."
And after all these years of planning, Jackvony says he's still not convinced the
state can mount a unified response.
"We have 39 cities and towns," he says. "We have 39 public works departments
. . . They all talk about having a good plan, but I'm satisfied it doesn't exist."
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