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2006 EPpy Winner -- Best multimedia Providence, R.I., Mostly clear 37° |
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I've got to leave in about 13 minutes for a meeting in South County -- about 45 minutes from Providence, for you out-of-towners -- and I've only finished two of the five player profiles I'd planned for today. The dilemma: Hold everything for a day, or post the two I've finished and come back with the rest tomorrow. Ah, why wait? Here are the two that are finished. See you with the others tomorrow.
31) DUSTIN HERMANSON Don't get me wrong; I'm not going overboard here. I know the black marks against Hermanson. I know he's never realized the promise he showed in his Expos days. I know about the frightening dip in his strikeout rates in recent years. I know that in today's game, good starters -- or, more accurately, pitchers perceived as good starters -- don't bounce from Montreal to St. Louis to Boston in consecutive seasons. But we're also talking about a guy who was once one of the best pitching prospects in the game. A guy who, for whatever other problems he had last year, turned in 19 quality starts (in 33 attempts) for the Cardinals. A guy who . . . well, let me turn this over to the 2002 STATS Scouting Notebook: Late in the season, he finally began showing signs of reducing his always-high walk totals and pitch counts . . . Like so many other pitchers, Hermanson just may be entering his prime as he nears 30 years of age. If he picks up where he left off, it's possible he'll become a consistent 15-17 game winner for a Boston club that generally stays competitive in the American League East. In other words, a guy who has a chance to be better than he's been. (And who isn't in his 30s and coming off major arm surgery.) Try to think of the last time the Sox traded for a pitcher like this. Not an established guy, necessarily; not a Pedro Martinez or a Mike Boddicker. But a relatively young pitcher who may be on the verge of a breakout year. I don't know about you, but I have to go back to Dennis Eckersley (the old Eck, the 1978 Eck). Or, since Eck already was seen as a Grade A starter, Ray Culp. So, of course, the first words out of Grady Little's mouth regarding Dustin Hermanson is that he may be headed to the bullpen. Please, Grady, no. Let the guy start. Let him go out there every fifth day, seven innings a shot. See what happens. I bet you'll be satisfied. 32) DEREK LOWE You remember Bob James, don't you? You don't? Here, go take a look. The second-most similar player? Keith Foulke. The third? Tom Buskey. You'll also find Mike Garman, Mike Schooler, Danny Graves and Donn Paul on the list of top 10 comps to Derek Lowe. The only relievers who were remotely noted for their closing skills on that list are Antonio Alfonseca (fifth), Doug Corbett (sixth) and Barney Schultz (eighth). (That's not really fair to James, actually. He had an excellent year as the White Sox' closer in 1985 at age 26, but -- and I'm assuming this is because of injury, though I don't remember one -- he fell off the table in 1986 and was out of the major leagues for good by 1988. Still, he had just about as many bad years as good ones, and it's the whole package that comps out to Derek Lowe.) So the bottom line is: Derek Lowe -- for as much as we all like him -- has been a somewhat unremarkable relief pitcher to this point in his career. He's a solid contemporary closer, getting the last three outs far more often than he doesn't, but is that the best use of his talent? Especially now, with Ugueth Urbina on board? I think not. Because he's not a truly hard thrower, Lowe is more defense-dependent than you'd like from your closer. (This shouldn't be as big a problem in 2002 as it's been in the past, but you still like strikeouts and popups, rather than groundballs, from your relief ace.) Lowe has three good pitches (fastball, curve, sinker) that can carry him as a starter. He wants to start, which is a telling glimpse into his mindset. And we got another glimpse last April, when he struggled for a spell and looked like he'd have to be put on suicide watch. We also got still another glimpse earlier this month. Read this passage from Steven Krasner's March 5 story: FORT MYERS, Fla. -- After retiring the first batter he faced, Derek Lowe promptly got into a jam. Three straight singles to right, and the Detroit Tigers had a very quick 1-0 lead in their game yesterday against the Boston Red Sox at City of Palms Park. Lowe got ready to face the next hitter, and he realized something. The fans weren't groaning or hooting at him. He gave up a run. Big deal. And while part of that lack of venom was due to the fact this was an exhibition game, there was another factor at work here, too, said Lowe. Now that he's a starting pitcher instead of the closer, there is a greater margin for error. So there was more focus on his two scoreless innings, contributing to a very solid three-inning stint in his spring debut as a split squad of Red Sox overtook a split squad of Tigers, 7-3. "If I gave up a run in my first inning last year (during the regular season), I'd get booed off the mound because it would mean the game was probably tied," said Lowe. "Now you go out and throw two good innings, and people are happy with your outing." Add it all up, and you can't help but reach the conclusion -- or at least I can't -- that Joe Kerrigan did the right thing when he made a starter out of Lowe last September. The other reason I like it is that Lowe is a) 29 years old, b) healthy as a horse, and c) capable of growth as a starting pitcher. For amplification, see the Dustin Hermanson comment. Six or seven front-of-the-game innings from Derek Lowe are more valuable than the one, end-of-the-game inning he was capable of providing. This was the right move.
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