Player analysis, Part Four . . .

26) LOU MERLONI
Position: You name it. 2001 stats: .267/.306/.397. 2002 spring training stats (through March 18): 30 at-bats, .400/.455/.700. 2002 Baseball Prospectus projection: .280/.341/.411.
His options are (finally) up, and so -- you'd think -- is his time on the Boston/Pawtucket Shuttle. But accepted wisdom is that he'd clear waivers if the Sox decided to ship him to McCoy yet again, so the change in his status apparently isn't going to lead to a change in his status . . . if you get my drift.

Aware of this, Merloni is waging war on Carlos Baerga for the final infield spot. For all the talk of what a great spring Baerga is having, Merloni's doing even better. Merloni's advantages: He's younger, he can play shortstop, and he's a FON. (Friend of Nomar.) Baerga's advantages: He may have a higher upside (if he can somehow catch even part of his former lightning in his 33-year-old bottle) and he's a FOM. (Friend of Manny.) The only way they both make the team is if the Sox cut the cord with Jose Offerman, but even then why would they need two guys who do basically the same thing (pinch-hit and provide mediocre -- or less -- defensive backup at several positions)?

If it was my call, I'd keep Merloni. I remain extremely skeptical Carlos Baerga can play anymore at this level, and although Merloni isn't great -- or even real good -- you know exactly what he does and doesn't bring to the mix. But if you're confident Merloni will clear waivers and thus can be stored (again) at Pawtucket, then I have to admit keeping Baerga makes sense. Bring him north, see what he can do, and cut him loose in May or June if you don't like what you see. Lou's perpetually 45 minutes away.

Should that scenario -- Baerga to Boston, Merloni to Pawtucket -- unfold, I'll be extremely interested in player reaction. (And before any of you hop on your anti-media soapbox, it was always player reaction in regards to Merloni; reporters never criticized the Sox for sending down a backup infielder.) Dan Duquette was justifiably criticized for his lack of people skills, and moves like this inevitably brought howls of how bloodless and impersonal the Red Sox had become. But The Duke's gone now, and these are the kinder, gentler Sox. What will happen if they tie up Merloni for another spin on the Fenway/McCoy yo-yo? Will we hear the same cries of unfair treatment?

We shouldn't. But then, of course, we shouldn't have when Duquette was around, either. Merloni's the most marginal of major-leaguers, and he is, and always should be, the first choice when you need to sacrifice a body for the good of the club. Duquette wasn't doing it because of any personality disorder, any more than the new regime will be doing it out of baseball ignorance. It's just business. The business of baseball.

28) DOUG MIRABELLI
Position: Backup catcher. 2001 stats (combined Boston and Texas): .226/.332/.453 . 2002 spring training stats (through March 18): 25 at-bats, .160/.281/.440. 2002 Baseball Prospectus projection: .256/.349/.439.
He rode into Boston and took the town by storm, wresting the starting job from Scott Hatteberg and slugging .518 in 141 Red Sox at-bats. He also demonstrated the ability to throw out more than 6% of the runners who attempted to steal against him, further endearing him to The Nation. We have our backup! was the cry throughout New England. And, folks continued giddily, if Varitek can't come back back 100 percent, well . . .

. . . well, then stick between your head between your legs and kiss your shin guards goodbye. Look, let's not go overboard here. Mirabelli's a fine backup catcher, but that's what he is: A backup catcher. There's a reason Mirabelli was never able to win the starting job in San Francisco, even though the Giants went through catchers (Brian Johnson, Brent Mayne, Bobby Estalella, Benito Santiago) during his time by the bay the way Rick Pitino went through point guards during his time in Boston. There's a reason the Rangers chose to keep Bill Haselman instead of Mirabelli when Haselman returned from the DL last July. It's the same reason the Sox will have to go searching for another catcher if Varitek breaks his elbow again this June.

Mirabelli's a backup. Period. He's a lifetime .231 hitter, with a career OPS of .727. He's 31 years old, and he's never played more than 82 games in a season. To think that he's anything more than a backup is dangerous.

But he's a good backup. He's got some pop, and he can throw out runners. There's value there, especially for a right-handed hitter in Fenway Park. That value, though, is limited to 50 or 60 games a year, not 120 or 130.

Mirabelli became yet another club for Duke-bashers to wield when Duquette surrendered Justin Duchscherer to acquire him, and the analytical community joined the chorus this time. ("Pitching prospects are scarce. Backup catchers with pop aren't." BP, 2002) The deal took an interesting twist in the last 24 hours when Duchscherer was dealt from the pitching-poor Rangers to the pitching-rich A's. One strain of thought is that John Hart, the man who once traded Brian Giles for Ricardo Rincon, was swindled by the brilliant Billy Beane, and I have to admit, that's a possibility. Another is that Duchscherer -- who didn't exactly sparkle (12.27 ERA in 14 2/3 dismal innings) in his cup of coffee in Arlington last September -- is worth exactly what Duquette acquired for him. I bring this up because it'll be years before we can accurately assess the Duquette Era in Boston. This trade, Mirabelli for Duchscherer, is one of the tools we'll be using in that assessment.

29) SHEA HILLENBRAND
Position: Third base. 2001 stats: .263/.291/.391. 2002 spring training stats (through March 18): 28 at-bats, .357/.406/.679. 2002 Baseball Prospectus projection: .286/.319/.430.
To be honest, I thought it was ridiculous that the Sox promoted him to the varsity -- and handed him the starting third-base job, to boot -- based on a hot couple of weeks in Fort Myers. Not when you consider his injury history, the fact that he'd never played above Double-A, and his lack of plate discipline. I was a Jimy Williams supporter, but I wasn't a blind Jimy Williams supporter. Hillenbrand's black hole of a season (.682 OPS??) justified my concerns . . . unfortunately.

But, to be honest, I think it's just as ridiculous to dismiss Hillenbrand as being incapable of growth. I did a piece last year that attempted to determine Hillenbrand's upside, and came to the conclusion that, at his best, he might resemble Bill Buckner. I didn't say that as a compliment, necessarily, but it's better than a .682 OPS. However, I'm starting to wonder. Hillenbrand came to camp talking about the need to be more selective at the plate, a piece of self-realization that Buckner -- and many others, like Willie Wilson ("If I wanted to walk, I'd have been a mailman") -- never achieved in 22 seasons. He's already walked 3 times in 28 at-bats so far this spring, which I realize is hardly Rickey Henderson territory but which projects out to 53 walks in 500 at-bats -- a milestone that eluded Buckner, whose season-high in walks was 40. In other words, Shea's walking the walk (guffaw, guffaw) in addition to talking the talk. If he carries it over to the regular season, the Sox might have something.

These are lessons Hillenbrand might have learned in the minors had he been given his last, needed year in Triple-A. Instead, he learned them -- we hope -- here. He doesn't project out to be another Mike Schmidt, certainly, but he could be a useful cog for a good team. And it could happen this year.

30) JOSE OFFERMAN
Position: Second base/first base/DH. 2001 stats: .267/.342/.374. 2002 spring training stats (through March 18): 32 at-bats, .250./273/.594. 2002 Baseball Prospectus projection: .280/.358/.394.
I should just recuse myself from this one. I stated my case on Jose Offerman last August 9, and nothing has happened in the last seven months to change my mind. I'm blinded by my prejudices; I admit it. Even if he should bounce back to his BP projection, which makes him semi-useful (offensively, at least) as a middle infielder, I'd still rather have someone else at second base.

Increasingly, it looks as though I'll get my wish. In his roster analysis today, Sean McAdam quoted Grady Little as saying "Defense will be the No. 1 priority" at second base, and we all know where that leaves Offerman. And last week, John Henry said the new Sox would be willing to eat bad contracts (at last, an ownership that understands the concept of sunk costs!). I'd be surprised if the Sox release Offerman, but I think it's the right move for any number of reasons:

-- Offerman no longer seems to have enough offensive skills to make him valuable at any position other second base or shortstop.

-- Nor does he have the defensive skills to adequately play second base.

-- He believes he should be a starter, and wouldn't be a happy camper -- in the least -- were he relegated to the bench. After making a giant, public production of ridding themselves of bad apples all offseason, why would the Sox then replant a rancid seed in the freshly cleaned clubhouse?

-- The dichotomy of the last administration -- and you might call it the dysfunction -- is that it wasn't adverse to handing out or assuming giant, questionable contracts to marginal talents (Troy O'Leary, Mike Lansing), but was adverse to releasing anyone with time left on said contract . . . even if the player had degenerated into uselessness. The overpaid deadwood acted as a giant anchor on the team's chances, and was the originating point for the clubhouse poison that consumed the Sox in the last month of the season. Releasing Jose Offerman would be the biggest signal the new owners could send that things are different now, that there's a new sherriff in town. (And it also would help quell the fears of those who think these guys aren't well-heeled enough to compete.)

It all makes perfect sense to me. But I'm the wrong guy to ask. I hate Jose Offerman.

More tomorrow.