Player analysis, Part Three . . .

18) JOHNNY DAMON
Position: Outfield. 2001 stats (with Oakland): .256/.324/.363. 2002 spring training stats (through March 14): 26 at-bats, .192/ .250/.308. 2002 Baseball Prospectus projection: .301/.368/.464
I was surprised at the (relative) lack of enthusiasm I sensed when the Sox signed Johnny Damon, because -- other than Jason Giambi, who was never a serious candidate to land here -- this is the fish I most hoped the Sox would snare when they cast their net into the 2001-02 free-agent waters. They solved two big problems (leadoff hitter and good defensive center fielder) in one fell swoop, and received an added benefit (a stolen-base threat) as a bonus. And I felt this way before he arrived in town for the Baseball Writers Dinner in January and talked about how much he wanted to play for the Red Sox. Or before he stood at the podium, stunned at the sight of a thousand or so folks who came together on a winter's night in New England to celebrate baseball and the Sox, and -- like Popeye swallowing a can of spinach -- almost seemed to draw enthusiasm and resolve from their passion.

The concerns surrounding Damon stem from his less-than-stellar season with Oakland, which some have blamed on the new strike zone (and thus would be a continuing problem) and others think was the result of his first exposure to baseball's fast lane (which also would be cause for worry, since baseball's fast lane runs through Boston). I'm not as worried, for any number of reasons:

-- His second half with the A's (.278/.351/.372), while not great, was far better than his first (.239/.301/.357). If he was having problems with the strike zone, he seems to be adjusting.

-- He had a dynamite playoff series against the Yankees (.409/.435/.591), and he went 7-for-13 in the games at Yankee Stadium. I'm guessing if he didn't know how to run in the fast lane before 2001 began, he'd learned by the end of the season.

-- He's moving from a pitchers' park to a hitters' park, which should give his game a boost.

-- And the fact is, 2001 might have had nothing to do with anything. It could have been just a bad year. They happen.

I've always been interested in Johnny Damon, ever since I spent a week at the beginning of the 1996 season in Kansas. The Royals were hyping Damon as their next superstar in the Brett-White-McRae line, and even had him do a commercial with Brett that sent a clear, passing-of-the-torch message. I thought it was grossly unfair to Damon, since it raised fan expectations to unrealistic levels, and I wondered if he wouldn't crumble under the weight of the pressure. He didn't, which impressed me. Carl Yastrzemski always said that nothing in his baseball career was as difficult as trying to fill Ted Williams's shoes -- in the minds of the fans and media -- as a rookie. If Damon survived the Brett comparisons, he can survive anything.

What he gives the Sox is a Grade A defensive center fielder -- their best flychaser at that position since Fred Lynn, though the Buford/Lewis tandem in 1998 was pretty good -- and a Grade A leadoff hitter, both of which were weaknesses in 2001. And he loves it here. Who could ask for anything more?

19) JOHN BURKETT
Position: Starting pitcher. 2001 stats (with Atlanta): 219 1/3 innings, 3.04 ERA, 187 hits, 70 walks, 187 strikeouts. 2002 spring training stats (through March 14): 10 innings, 0.90 ERA, 5 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts.
Burkett, on the other hand, is the free agent I least wanted the Sox to sign. 37 years old? ERAs of 5.68 and 5.62 in the American League in 1998 and '99? No season with more than 12 wins since 1995? That groan you heard in December was mine, once the two-year deal was announced.

It isn't so much that I dislike Burkett, or that I don't think he can replicate his sublime 2001 season (which Baseball Prospectus, by the way, credits in large part to "the best bullpen support of any starter in baseball, seeing only 2 of the 23 runners he left for his relievers score"). It's a point I skirted in the Casey Fossum comment yesterday: The Sox' M.O. is securing starting pitching in the last three or four years -- with the exception of the noble but quickly abandoned Ohka/Crawford experiment -- has been short-term stopgaps over long-term solutions, age over youth, established level of performance over potential to be better (or worse) than expected. It's not that there's not a spot for pitchers like this in your rotation; it's that I hate having four of your five starters a) in their 30s somewhere, b) not really being capable of going more than six effective innings, and c) having next-to-no chance of ever being any better than they are right now. And even if they break through and have a good season, the odds are strong they'll revert right back to where they were. So what that means, in practice, is that every November you find yourself on the prowl for three starting pitchers. When you're lucky, you find Hideo Nomo and Frank Castillo. When you're not, it's Pat Rapp and Mark Portugal.

With Derek Lowe and Dustin Hermanson around, and with Casey Fossum in the wings, the Sox may be starting to break the mold . . . in which case, John Burkett's signing isn't as odious as I first thought. He's certainly pitching this spring as though his 2001 season was for real. Let's hope it continues. And let's hope he winds up as the No. 4, and not the No. 2, starter.

22) TONY CLARK
Position: First base/DH. 2001 stats (with Detroit): .287/.374/.481. 2002 spring training stats (through March 14): 18 at-bats, .444/.500/1.056. 2002 Baseball Prospectus projection: .297/.379/.526
Talk about Christmas in November. The Red Sox tried unsuccessfully to trade for/buy/develop a hitter of this caliber for three years, and, when they least expected it, one simply dropped into their laps. I understand the Tigers' reluctance to commit a lot of money to him, what with his back ailments and their financial situation, and I understand other teams being unwilling to trade for him for the same reasons. But to get him for nothing? Absolutely nothing? People talk about the Patriots changing the athletic karma in New England, but Tony Clark's arrival may be the real sign that the times, they are a-changin'.

23) BRIAN DAUBACH
Position: First base/DH. 2001 stats: .263/.350/.509. 2002 spring training stats (through March 14): 30 at-bats, .167/.194/.167. 2002 Baseball Prospectus projection: .273/.354/.514
I've never been president, or even a member, of the Brian Daubach Fan Club, but this year I've applied for admission. The reason? I think that as a lower-of-the-order hitter -- from No. 6 on down -- Daubach has value, real value. And there's no reason he ever has to bat any higher than sixth, not with Johnny Damon and Trot Nixon and Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez and Tony Clark ahead of him. He could even bat seventh, if Jason Varitek bounces back to his 2001 levels. And then I'd like him even more.

So, of course, now that I've climbed on the bandwagon, Daubach's name is surfacing in trade rumors. This, I cannot understand. At all. Tony Clark's going to get the majority of the playing time at first base, I know, but Clark has averaged 110 games a season in the last three years. If history is any indication, there'll be a real need for another first baseman. (And no, I don't consider Jose Offerman to be "another first baseman".) Secondly, even if Clark plays first, who DHs? Or who plays left field if Manny Ramirez is at DH? Daubach and a right-handed hitter -- Rickey Henderson, even Damon Buford or Michael Coleman -- would make an effective platoon. If you trade Daubach, who does that job?

I've never liked Daubach as a middle-of-the-order bat; I always thought he was part of the problem and not part of the solution to the Sox' offensive woes. But it was never that he didn't have value. It was that the Sox were forcing him into a job he really couldn't do. This job -- No. 6 or 7 hitter -- he can do. Let's hope he gets the chance.

24) MANNY RAMIREZ
Position: Left field/DH. 2001 stats: .306/.405/.609. 2002 spring training stats (through March 14): 23 at-bats, .217/.308/.348. 2002 Baseball Prospectus projection: .329/.425/.639.
Forget all the nonsense at the end of last season. (Ramirez already has.) He'll be fine.

Back next week.