| projo.com | The Providence Journal |

	July 13, 2001

The Red Sox have played 13 games since Pedro Martinez last pitched. They've won seven and lost six.

Here's how the starting pitchers have done in those 13 games:

                               Avg. no.     Quality
 IP   H   R  ER  BB  SO   ERA  of pitches   starts
 70  77  39  36  29  59  4.62  91           7

Not so hot, is it? Especially since they're only averaging 5 1/3 innings per start.

But the more astute among you are probably thinking, "Hold on a sec. Didn't Frank Castillo have to come out of one of those games with an injury?" And the answer is: Yes! Castillo's 1 2/3-inning performance against Tampa Bay on June 28 should, in the issue of fairness, be tossed from the mix. And that leaves us with:

                                Avg. no.     Quality
 IP    H   R  ER  BB  SO   ERA  of pitches   starts
 68.1 75  37  34  28  58  4.48  96           7

We're getting better.

Now let's do one more massaging of these numbers. Since it appears unlikely Tomo Ohka will remain in the rotation once either Castillo or Bret Saberhagen is ready to return, let's remove his numbers and see what the combined totals are for the 10 games started by Hideo Nomo, Tim Wakefield, David Cone and Rolando Arrojo:

                                Avg. no.     Quality
 IP    H   R  ER  BB  SO   ERA  of pitches   starts
 60   58  27  24  27  53  3.60  100.5        7

Not bad, eh? It's still only six innings a start, but that's what these guys have been asked to do all season. Not only that, but 70% of them were quality starts.

The fact is, that's pretty much the way they've been pitching all year. Look at the totals for the Sox' starters:

                    ERA   W   L GG    IP   H   R  ER  HR  BB   SO
Pedro Martinez     2.26   7   2  1 103.2  72  27  26   4  22  150
All other starters 4.27  29  17  2 400.1 377 198 190  41 157  327
Team totals        3.68  36  19  3 504.0 449 225 206  45 179  477

Now look at the league totals for starting pitching:

               ERA   W   L  GS CG     IP    H   R  ER  HR TBB IBB   SO
Red Sox       3.68  36  19  88  3  504.0  449 225 206  45 179   5  477
Athletics     4.13  32  28  88  5  551.1  542 277 253  72 161  10  411
Twins         4.21  36  21  88  8  549.2  561 270 257  79 137   0  308
Yankees       4.22  34  24  87  4  537.0  546 275 252  65 168   4  484
Orioles       4.28  30  32  88  8  541.0  559 277 257  67 171   6  312
Angels        4.30  30  33  88  4  554.1  562 286 265  56 206  10  332
Mariners      4.40  43  15  88  3  520.0  540 276 254  71 160  14  292
White Sox     4.45  25  34  86  5  511.1  541 284 253  66 153   8  302
Blue Jays     4.68  26  31  89  3  524.2  622 300 273  72 179  15  340
Royals        5.26  25  42  88  0  492.1  567 314 288  80 203   5  292
Indians       5.51  32  25  86  2  462.1  527 308 283  65 187   4  354
Tigers        5.51  26  34  85  6  511.0  600 341 313  71 194  10  289
Devil Rays    5.86  19  46  89  1  503.1  590 374 328  70 196   3  333
Rangers       6.31  25  33  88  0  477.2  623 357 335  71 214   6  296
League Avg.   4.74  29  29  87  3  517.0  559 297 272  67 179   7  344

Take out Martinez, and the rest of the starters rank fourth in the league in ERA. And they're still half-a-run better than the league average.

Here's what I'm not saying:

-- I'm not saying the Sox won't miss Pedro Martinez. Obviously, they will. (How could they not?) The other starters are only averaging 5 2/3 innings per appearance, compared to Martinez's 7. That extra inning-and-a-third every fifth day could place a huge strain on an already overtaxed bullpen, and may result in further deterioration of a relief corps that has begun to show signs of wear and tear. That, in turn, could lead to more crumbling of the overall pitching numbers. (See yesterday for details.)

-- I'm not saying the Sox can maintain that 4.27 non-Pedro-starters' ERA, since someone -- and someone theoretically worse than the guys who are pitching now -- is going to have to assume Martinez's role in the rotation.

Here's what I am saying:

This ain't the end of the world. The Red Sox have some very capable pitchers in their starting rotation. None of them are Pedro Martinez, true, but they've provided better-than-league-average performance so far. As long as they don't stick a Nate Minchey clone in Martinez's rotation spot, they should -- should -- continue to get better-than-league-average performance from their starters. Maybe it won't be league-leading anymore, but it won't be the Texas Rangers, either.

If the offense picks up the way we hope it will -- again, yesterday will explain all that -- it should be enough to keep them in the race. (It would be nice if some of the starters were stretched out a bit to pitch more innings and give some help to the bullpen, but we may be seeing signs of that already; in the last 10 games worked by Wakefield, Nomo, Cone and Arrojo, they've averaged 100 pitches per appearance.) And if Martinez comes back in four to six weeks, well . . .

This has been an unbelievable season, starting with Garciaparra's injury and running through all the nonsense -- some self-inflicted, some not -- to this. Yet they're still standing. And as bad as losing Pedro may be, it's not as bad as losing Nomar and replacing him for 3 1/2 months with refugees from the Hunger League.

The storyline that is the 2001 Boston Red Sox just gets more and more interesting. Sometimes, "interesting" evolves into "memorable". What would be more memorable than a season in which all these guys went down ending with . . . ?

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