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June 27, 2001

We've been down this road -- Pedro Martinez headed to the disabled list -- enough times that relief, not panic, is the order of the day. Good, seems to be the prevailing sentiment; give him some rest and get him healthy and watch him come back stronger than ever.

Because he generally does. Take a look at Martinez' pre-disabled list/post-disabled list stats in each of the last two years.

1999
         G   ERA  W  L CG ShO    IP   H   R  ER  HR  BB    K  Team W/L
Pre-DL  19  2.51 15  3  3   0 136.1 116  42  38   5  24  187    16-3
Post-DL 12  1.29  8  1  2   1  77.0  44  14  11   4  13  126    10-2

2000
         G   ERA  W  L CG ShO    IP   H   R  ER  HR  BB    K  Team W/L
Pre-DL  14  1.44  9  3  3   2 106.0  62  19  17   9  20  140     9-5
Post-DL 15  2.03  9  3  4   2 111.0  66  25  25   8  12  144    12-3 

Now, obviously, every situation is different. Martinez went on the disabled list in 1999 with shoulder tenderness, and in 2000 because of the dreaded pulled oblique muscle. All we really know about what's bothering him today is 1) he was diagnosed with tendinitis in May and 2) Jimy Williams -- in a rare, and surprising, burst of candor -- said he had pain during the game. Is it because of the tendinitis? Normal midseason wear-and-tear? Something more serious? We just don't know, and we may not know for a while.

What we do know is that Martinez has never been more than temporarily halted by what are becoming annual middle-of-the-year stoppages. If the past is any indication, rest should cure whatever's ailing him.

But if the past is any indication, we also know the Sox are headed for a rough stretch. Take a look at the team's won-loss record before, during and after Martinez's DL stints in 1999 and 2000:


1999
         G   W   L   AVG   ERA
Pre-DL  92  51  41  .276  4.12
DL      13   6   7  .296  6.03
Post-DL 57  37  20  .277  3.05


2000
         G   W   L   AVG   ERA
Pre-DL  71  37  34  .269  3.95
DL      13   6   7  .299  5.46
Post-DL 78  42  36  .259  4.28

The Sox have been slightly under .500 during Martinez's DL time in both seasons, while playing over .500 in the pre-DL and post-DL stretches in those seasons. In addition, the team ERA has taken a bellyflop whenever Martinez has been sidelined.

In and of itself, these numbers don't prove anything; there are probably a few other 13-game stretches in each of the last two seasons that break down roughly the same way, Martinez or no Martinez. But the fact that it's happened twice makes you wonder.

What also makes you wonder is the fact that these Sox have other issues in play, such as:

-- The bullpen. Boston's relief corps in the early part of the year consisted of Derek Lowe struggling and everyone else pitching well. Now it's the other way around. Garces is on the DL himself, Beck and Schourek are surrendering runs almost every time they pitch, Arrojo is infuriatingly inconsistent (I could have hit a grand slam off that meatball he served up to Greg Vaughn last night) and Pichardo is still something of an unknown quantity. At the exact time when these guys don't appear ready to handle any more work -- in fact, at the exact time they don't appear to be capable of handling the workload they've had so far -- more is being dumped on their plate.

-- Injuries. In addition to Nomar and Varitek, there's no indication that Carl Everett will be returning anytime soon.

-- Slumps. Or specifically, the fact that Manny Ramirez is now merely hitting like a star instead of a for-the-ages immortal.

Not to mention the fact that we still have the Offerman/Stynes/Hillenbrand/Valentin mess to sort out at second and third base, along with the Lansing/Merloni/Grebeck black hole at shortstop.

It's been an amazing season in that the Sox have, so far, been able to overcome virtually everything. They've held their own against the good teams -- the only opponents to whom they're trailing in a season series are the Mariners (2-4) and the Yankees (4-6) -- and are killing the weak sisters (21-8 against the Orioles, Devil Rays, Royals, Tigers and Marlins, and 24-11 if you add the A's to that mix). That's a great recipe for success, even if every one of your players is healthy and at the top of his game.

But these Sox aren't. And what's worrisome is that, starting on Friday, the Sox have a 10-game dose of the Blue Jays (on the road), the Indians (ditto) and the Braves (at home) to swallow before the All-Star break. Without Pedro. Then they hit the road for 11 straight games immediately after the break.

History tells us not to worry about Pedro Martinez. Here's hoping history is right.

And here's hoping history is wrong when it tells us what to expect from the Sox during this time.

Copyright © 2001 The Providence Journal Company
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