AB  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO  AVG  OBP SAVG  OPS
Player A  101 31  6  1  0   3  3  8 .307 .324 .386 .710
Player B   99 34  9  1  2  11  1 11 .343 .356 .515 .871

Yeah, yeah, I know. Player B's easy. He's Shea Hillenbrand, easily one of the feel-good -- if mystifying -- stories of 2001. Feel-good because everybody loves a kid, from your own farm system no less, who streaks out of nowhere, grabs a starting job, and becomes successful. Mystifying because a) who could have guessed it?, and b) how is it that he's one of only two players (Manny Ramirez is the other) who never leaves the lineup? Even Carl Everett sat out one game; Troy O'Teacher's Pet has missed four (praise the heavens!). Yet third base has been all Shea all the time, and while it's worked -- so far -- it's baffling because if there's one thing we can all agree upon about Jimy Williams, it's that he's not afraid to shuffle the lineup deck.

But what about Player A?

Don't bother looking through your encyclopedias because this line won't be in there. Player A is Wilton Veras, and the statistical line is for the 28 games he played in 2000 before John Valentin blew out his knee. Valentin, you may recall, spent some time in April and May on the DL and Veras was the main fill-in. He did pretty well then, but look what happened after Valentin went down and Veras inherited the job full-time:

           AB  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO  AVG  OBP SAVG  OPS
Player A   63  9  1  0  0  11  4 12 .143 .194 .159 .353

There are two theories about this. One is that Veras began pressing and immobilized himself. The other is that opposing pitchers realized the strikes didn't have to be too good -- in fact, they didn't have to be strikes -- to tempt Veras to swing. Theory B gained credence when Veras went to Pawtucket for the rest of the season and put up a .211/.258/.294. The fact that he has a .697 OPS so far this year with the PawSox is doing nothing to ease the fears of anyone inclined to think that way.

There's been talk in many circles comparing Hillenbrand to Veras, but Hillenbrand's career minor-league record has been superior to Veras's at virtually every level. For instance, Veras's top single-season minor-league batting average was .291 (Trenton, 1998); Hillenbrand has surpassed that four times, and nearly matched it (.290, Michigan, 1997) in a fifth season. Hillenbrand's career minor-league OBP is .348, compared to Veras's .311. He's outslugged Veras, .452 to .387. Their career-minor OPSs are .800 for Hillenbrand, .698 for Veras. By virtually any measuring stick, Shea Hillenbrand appears to be a better offensive player than Wilton Veras.

Which should ease the minds of those who thought the Sox were sticking Wilton Jr. at third base. But being a better hitter than, say, Manny Alexander is about the faintest praise there is. The question in the Nation is, how good, actually, is Shea Hillenbrand?

Let's do one more quiz. Who's Player C?

           AB  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO  AVG  OBP SAVG  OPS
Player C  106 29  7  0  2   9  1 16 .274 .278 .396 .674

Stumped? Here's a hint: He's being hyped in some circles as the leader in the Rookie of the Year race, a potential 35-homer/40-steal player, and there are even those who think he has a good chance to achieve pinstripe immortality.

Got it now, don't you? The "pinstripe" was the giveaway. He's Alfonso Soriano, and -- as you can plainly see -- his numbers so far pale in comparison to Shea Hillenbrand's.

Soriano and Hillenbrand, though, aren't a good comp for one giant reason: Their ages. Soriano is 23; Hillenbrand is 25, and will turn 26 in July. Serious analysts will tell you that's a huge difference, that Soriano is still going up the learning/developmental curve while Hillenbrand, physically at least, is just about on top of it. While I have serious doubts about just how good Alfonso Soriano will actually end up being, I admit there's a decent chance he'll wind up with greater long-range value than Shea Hillenbrand. Because if he's capable of doing what he's done so far in the major leagues at age 23, he's probably capable of improving his game as he gets older . . . unless he has a fatal flaw, like lack of plate discipline, that will eventually kill him. That's what I'd be worried about were I a Yankee fan; his horrific strikeout-to-walk ratio (which wasn't great in the minor leagues, either) could be a warning sign that he'll never master the strike zone.

That, of course, is our main concern about Shea Hillenbrand, as well. But if you're looking for good news, there is some:

-- While Hillenbrand has never walked very much, he's never struck out much, either. His career high in minor-league K's in 49, in his 498 at-bat breakthrough year at Michigan in 1998. (By contrast, Soriano whiffed 85 times in 459 at-bats last year at Columbus, and 67 times in 367 at-bats in Norwich in 1999.) Hillenbrand's more of a contact hitter than a free swinger.

-- "Lack of power" is another black mark on Hillenbrand's resume, but he hit 33 doubles at Michigan in '98, 35 last year in Trenton. You hate to project out based as limited a sample of 99 at-bats, but he's on about a 45-double pace so far this season.

-- Most importantly, Hillenbrand's weaknesses -- low walk totals, not many home runs -- are things that young players traditionally get better at as they gain experience. The more they play, the more power they develop and the better their command of the strike zone becomes.

If you're wondering what the ceiling is for this type of player, one name keeps popping to mind: Bill Buckner. At his best, in seasons when he'd hit .300 with 50 or so doubles and 20 or so homers, Buckner was productive offensively. He was pretty much a wash when he hit .280 and he'd hurt you when he hit .260, because he brought very few other skills to the table, but at the top of his game he was a nice bat to have in the order.

That's probably what the Sox can best hope for out of Shea Hillenbrand, if not this season -- after all, he is a rookie -- then in seasons to come. And it's not bad, especially since he looks like a decent enough fielder at third base.

I admit, I wasn't crazy about the Sox giving a starting job to Hillenbrand out of spring training, and I wasn't sure -- and still aren't sure -- that he'll give them league-average production at third base. But, I also admit, nothing's happened so far this year to indicate they made a mistake. Furthermore, I'm a lot more optimistic now that I've looked at it more closely than I was a few weeks ago, since the numbers are validating what we're seeing in each game: Namely, that the guy has a quick bat with some pop and seems not at all intimidated by the very daunting task of playing daily in the major leagues.

Jimy Williams has his lineup quirks, no question. But I'm no longer certain that playing Shea Hillenbrand every night is one of them.

Copyright © 2001 The Providence Journal Company
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