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April 20, 2001

Dear Art . . . (NOTE: Some of these are actual e-mails, some are Your Turn posts that caught my eye.)

DieHard3

Replace Billy Beane with Dan Duquette, Art Howe with Jimy Williams, Olmedo Seanz with Izzy Alcantara, and Adam Piatt with Chris Reitsma, and you have everything that went wrong in Boston last summer. How refreshing. Fortunately for A's fans, Billy Beane will do the sensible thing: He'll fire Art Howe and find someone that will use Olmedo Seanz at DH. Unfortunately for Red Sox fans, Chris Reitsma is in Cincinnati and Dante Bichette is on our bench.

ART: It's a reasonable analogy (although I'm not sure I accept the Izzy=Seanz comparison) except for one thing: As far as I know, Williams wasn't advocating the acquisition of Bichette last summer.

Of course, neither do I know if Howe is advocating the acquisition of Bichette today. It's just that it doesn't sound like Billy Beane's M.O. But then again . . .

Michael Nyland-Funke

If Beane does decide he has to do something, could we get someone as good as Reitsma? If we really could get Piatt, I'd say the answer is yes. But, as you say, Beane ain't goin' down that road -- so this is just idle (albeit fun) speculation.

ART: I doubt Beane's going down that road; I don't know think we know for sure. I spoke to someone yesterday who said not to dismiss the possibility so quickly, for the very reasons (pressure, panic, whatever you want to call it) we mentioned. As this person noted, the fact that Johnny Damon is on their roster is a clear We-want-to-win-now! signal. If that's your mindset, acquiring Dante Bichette doesn't seem so ridiculous. Or at least quite as ridiculous.

Today, right now, I'd take Piatt over a Reitsma-type. Then the trade -- Piatt for Reitsma and Curtice -- makes more long-term sense.

John Franjione

A small nitpick. You wrote: "That's Amazing, Part Two: Between the runs he's scored and the runs he's driven in, Manny Ramirez has accounted for 28.2% of the Red Sox' scoring this season..." It seems you took Manny's Runs+RBI-HR (7+16-3=20) and divided it by Red Sox runs scored (71). This is misleading. You should really use the same number in both the numerator and the denominator. For example, take Manny's R+RBI over Red Sox R+RBI. This is 23/141 = 16.3%, which is still pretty high, I suppose (I checked ARod last year, and he had (134 + 132)/(907 + 869) = 15.0% of Seattle's R+RBI). Or take Manny's RBI over Red Sox RBI = 16/70 = 22.8% Now *this* is a big number. John Franjione P.S. If it makes you feel any better, Rob Neyer took CNNSI's Tom Verducci to task for the same thing back in February. :)

ART: That's not so small! Thanks for straightening me out. (How embarrassing . . . ) And, actually, knowing that Rob chided Verducci doesn't make me feel any better; it makes me feel stupider.

If I can mess up that small bit of mathematics, you know I have no shot at this . . .

Kurt Hemr

Maybe you know this, but the statistical way to tell if there is any correlation between two sets of numbers is to calculate a statistic called the "correlation coefficient," a tremendously tedious task that is made quick and simple by using Excel or another computer spreadsheet program. A correlation coefficient is a number between 1.00 (which means perfect correlation; the two statistics move in tandem) and -1.00 (perfect "negative" correlation; as one statistic goes up, the other goes down). A correlation coefficient of zero means there's no relationship. As it happens, if you run the c.c. on "wins in first nine games" versus "end of season win/loss" for the last eleven seasons, you get 0.03 -- basically zero, which means (as you concluded) there's no relationship between the two statistics. Another statistic: If you assume that the Sox's probability of winning any given game is the same as their win/loss for the end of the season, then over the last eleven seasons, the probability that a nine-game stretch would result in either a 5-4 or 4-5 record is about 51.8%. (The probability that the result will be between 3-6 and 6-3 is about 87.5%.) Of course, there is a very high probability that over the course of the season, the team will have even better (and worse) runs, which as you note Bill James confirms. Your comparison of these chance variations to the way a runner's pace varies, however, is not quite right, because these variations will occur at least to some extent regardless of variations in how the team is playing. It's as if you were flipping a coin -- even without any variation in the coin, you would get some "streaks" of heads-heads-heads-heads or tails-tails-tails-tails, etc. Of course, some streaks aren't the result of chance -- injuries, long road trips and home stands, and psychology all play their part. But chance is a big part of the puzzle.

ART: This is response to the "What constitutes a start?" column from last week. Kurt explains it in greater detail, and more comprehensively, than I ever could. Thanks!

Valmoose

(David Weinfeld) . . . thinks this team is ridden with weaknesses and that Jimy Williams is using smoke and mirrors to eke out win after win. True poppycock. I, on the other hand, think that this team is the most talented and well-balanced Red Sox team of the last 50 years, and possibly since the championship years of the 1910s, and that this is what should also have happened last year. The difference so far is that this season, our GM has further Jimy-proofed the team. Even when Jimy puts out the least likely to succeed players in the least likely to succeed situations, they are managing to come through, which they didn't always do last year.

ART: I don't believe Valmoose has accurately represented David's position -- David, I think, is merely sick and tired of the never-ending criticism of Jimy Williams in some corners (like Valmoose's), no matter what actually happens on the field -- and I certainly hope he hasn't accurately represented his own. I hope he's dealing in his customary hyperbole because, as well as the Sox have played over the first 2 1/2 weeks and as good a season as I (and many others) think they're going to have, to say they're "the most talented and well-balanced Red Sox team of the last 50 years" is a stretch.

I would say the Sox are currently below league average offensively at shortstop (until Nomar returns, of course), third base (where Shea Hillenbrand's entire offensive value is represented by his batting average) and left field (when Troy O'Leary plays). They'll get better at shortstop, obviously, but I don't think either Hillenbrand or O'Leary are quality hitters. In addition, I would say Brian Daubach will provide no more than league-average production at first base. That's four positions where the Sox are no better than, and are in some cases below, average, which is certainly inconsistent with the notion that this is the "most talented" Sox team since World War II.

The Sox are currently being carried by a) their astounding pitching/defense, and b) the bats of Manny Ramirez, Carl Everett and Jose Offerman. (Not to mention a rather favorable early schedule.) Now, don't get me wrong: That might be enough, especially when Nixon and Varitek pick it up a bit. The Sox' core of stars is impressive, and, as such, the supporting cast doesn't need to be overwhelmingly strong. But I'd hardly call that "well-balanced", and I can recall Red Sox teams -- some in my lifetime -- that had no regulars as weak as Shea Hillenbrand and Troy O'Leary (not to mention the three-headed monster filling in for Garciaparra at shortstop).

The pitching staff, on the other hand, is the deepest and most talented I've ever seen in Boston -- I still can't get over Tim Wakefield, who could start for about 75% of the teams in baseball, as the long reliever -- and that dual offensive and defensive strength might be what Valmoose is talking about. Even at that, though, it doesn't add up to "most talented and well-balanced". There are too many holes in the lineup to be the "most talented", and too much dependence on a core of players to be "most well-balanced". My picks in the "talent" category would be the teams of the late '40s and mid-to-late '70s, and the 1986 American League champions were most well-balanced Red Sox team I've ever seen.

Yet, the 2001 Sox' strengths -- a power-based offense, deep pitching -- are the strengths that mean the most over the long season. I may agree with Valmoose's unstated conclusion. I just don't agree with his adjectives.

Portugee Joe

I belong to another forum -- a political one that is clearly defined in its purpose and not middle-of-the-road. We have quite a few members who support the other side and post regularly. They show genuine interest in debating the issues, presenting their opinions, etc., without insults, threats, etc. Every once in a while a supporter of the other side joins the forum with the sole purpose of causing trouble -- posting insults, threats, lies, etc. We call them 'disrupters' and they are usually kicked out very quickly. (We also sometimes have supporters who cross the line. They, too, are quickly dispatched from the forum.) In my opinion, (Louis DiLullo) sits somewhere between the two. He isn't quite a disrupter worthy of being kicked out, but he has come close some times. He can still be a Yankee fan and be valuable member of this forum, but if he crosses the line then he doesn't belong here. And any member of this forum who goes to his YankeeTradition website and acts like a 'disrupter' deserves the same fate.. . .

ART: Somebody asked the other day why I like Louis DiLullo so much and address his points so often in the column. There are a couple of reasons:

1) He's a consumptive Yankee fan and I truly admire that level of passion. If you visit his site, you'll see materials that obviously required great effort to locate and scan into digital form. Plus, he addressees historical issues (regarding the Yankees, of course) that are interesting and, at their best, thought-provoking.

2) When he posts here, he has a knack for presenting (what we think are) outrageous points of view with just enough skill to make his points a) marginally defensible and b) eminently debatable. He sparks comment, and that's always a good thing.

3) Plus, what's better than a little Red Sox-Yankee arguing? And if you're going to argue, it's nice to have someone with a brain on the other side of the table.

As Portugee Joe points out, Louis adroitly straddles the line between "provoker" and "disrupter".

Now. That said . . .

You can't come here and say some of the things Louis says and not expect there to be fallout. If he wants to accuse Pedro Martinez of being so selfish that he'll prevent the Red Sox from ever winning, or attempt to "temper the giddiness" of the Manny Ramirez signing by cherry-picking a bunch of stats to prove that Ramirez hits poorly against the Yankees -- when, in fact, he ignored other stats that showed Ramirez absolutely crushes certain high-profile members of the New York staff -- then he has to expect reaction. A number of people (Allan Wood, Chris Gifford, YardSox, He Hate Me, Warren Rosenberg) have gravitated to yankeetradition.com and are pulling what we might call "Louises", starting threads like "Rod Beaton tells it like it is about Yankee development of pitchers" and "Rob Neyer Gets It Right About Soriano". (These, of course, are in response to such Louis threads on Your Turn as "Diamond Jim Donaldson, On The Mark Again" and "Who Was Booing Manny Last Night?") That's the way it goes. If you dish it out, you'd best be prepared to take it.

But there's no reason to get personal, and certainly no reason to attempt to harm or damage the very hard work he's done on his site. Especially since so many of the posters -- not all, but a lot of them -- on yankeetradition.com are sensible, likeable folks.

I sense we've lost Louis for a while. His Red Sox posts on yankeetradition.com are getting increasingly shrill and hysterical, and we're all at our worst when we begin to display those qualities. I think we all need to cool off.

But I still like you, Louis, and you're always welcome as far as I'm concerned. My friend Lou and I are going to the Stadium on Sunday. If you're around, I'd love to buy you a beer.

And having offered that olive branch, I now turn on the Tweak Machine:

Allan Wood

They better turn it on if they're going to win 103.

ART: This, of course, is in response to Louis's preseason prediction of 103 wins and a double-digit margin of victory in the A.L. East race for the Yankees. Since they're now 9-7, the Yanks need to go 94-52 the rest of the way to reach 103-59. But 94-52 is "only" a .644 winning percentage, which projects to 104-58. So, in reality, they're not that far off. Not if they play the way Louis thinks they will.

And they're sure looking like a 103-win team, aren't they?

By the way, if you haven't been there yet I highly recommend Allan's two pitching sites: A comparison of Red Sox and Yankee pitching throughout the 2001 season, and Allan's Pedro Martinez site. Fascinating for serious fans.

I've also heard a lot of good things about Allan's book on the 1918 season. I can't wait to read it!

 

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