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3.30.2001 00:16
Numbers alter political landscape
The Census will be used to draw new General Assembly districts to reflect population changes. The numbers are also used to determine state and federal aid under an array of economic and social programs.

BY SCOTT MacKAY
Journal Staff Writer

PROVIDENCE -- Political power in Rhode Island is shifting back to its Democratic roots in the ethnic neighborhoods of Providence and to the Atlantic coastal communities more familiar to generations of Rhode Islanders as beach destinations than polling precincts.

The surnames today may be Pichardo or Aponte rather than Roberts or Pastore, but the Providence neighborhoods that made the Democratic Party dominant in state politics from the New Deal to the end of the 20th century are on the upswing in the first decade of the 21st.

For political figures of all stripes, the surprising news from yesterday's release of U.S. Census numbers was the 8-percent increase in Providence's population, meaning the city grew almost twice as fast as the state as a whole.

As he gestured from his City Hall window toward the State House, an exultant Mayor Vincent A. Cianci Jr. said, "This is going to mean something else to our friends in the legislature. We're not going to lose seats as some had predicted."

"Our population increase is larger than most cities and towns in Rhode Island," said Cianci, who often complains that his city is shortchanged when money gets passed around at the Assembly. "The legislature will take note of that now."

The figures are important because they are used to draw new General Assembly districts to reflect population changes. The numbers are also used to determine state and federal aid under an array of economic and social programs. For example, Cianci said Providence receives about $4,000 in federal aid for each person counted in the Census.

THIS YEAR, the Census results will be more closely watched than at any time in the past century in Rhode Island because they will be used as a guide in cutting the Assembly by 25 percent -- 25 House seats and 12 Senate seats must be chopped out before next year's elections.

The Census figures are also used to reapportion the state's two U.S. House Districts. The 2nd District, anchored by Warwick, Cranston and southern and western parts of the state, is held by Democrat James Langevin. It has grown faster in population than the 1st District, anchored by the Blackstone Valley and the east side of Narragansett Bay, which is held by fellow Democrat Patrick Kennedy. That means that Kennedy must take over about 14,000 of Langevin's constituents to make the districts equal, as required by the U.S. Constitution.

Kennedy said in an interview yesterday that he would like to take from the 2nd District Block Island and the Providence neighborhoods of Elmhurst and Mount Pleasant, near Providence College, his alma mater. Kennedy represented those neighborhoods as a state representative, from 1989 to 1995.

"I'd love to be able to represent my old state representative district," said Kennedy. "Those people gave me my start and I'd love to have the opportunity to deliver for them."

Langevin declined to state a preference for which constituents he would be willing to give up, but said he expects that he and Kennedy will be able to negotiate an amicable agreement that would be acceptable to the Assembly, which makes the final decision.

THE JUMP in Providence's population was fueled mostly by Hispanics, who are just beginning to make their presence felt in politics. If they vote in proportion to their growing numbers, they will be a powerful presence in the city's future.

In fact, without Hispanics there was scant growth in Rhode Island in the last 10 years, so both parties will be vying for their votes in the future.

In the short term, the flexing of Hispanic political muscle may push some black political figures to the sidelines. This is the case because their populations are concentrated in some of the same neighborhoods on Providence's South Side.

"I think it means some growning pains in the urban centers, where folks will be competing for political power," says Councilman Luis A. Aponte, who in 1998 became the first Latino elected to Providence's City Council. "And it sort of reinforces that legislative downsizing could not have come at a worse time."

And while Providence surged, Warwick and Pawtucket barely grew at all, and Woonsocket, East Providence and Newport lost population. Those figures will become important to individual representatives and senators, whose political futures will be at stake when new districts are drawn. The Assembly's most powerful leaders are all from communities that were either stagnant or lost population -- House Speaker John Harwood (Pawtucket); Senate Majority Leader William Irons (East Providence); and House Majority Leader Gerard Martineau (Woonsocket).

"There is going to be a lot of infighting at the State House, a lot of battles behind the scenes before this is all over," says political science Prof. Maureen Moakley, of the University of Rhode Island. "It is going to make for an interesting election."

REPUBLICANS see an opening in the growth in South County, especially in such fast-growing communities as South Kingstown, North Kingstown, Charlestown, Exeter, Hopkinton and Richmond. And the GOP believes it may also be helped by the greater representation that population figures show must be given to some communities in northern Rhode Island, such as Lincoln, home of Governor Almond, Smithfield and Cumberland.

"This is a big opportunity for us," said House Minority Leader Robert Watson, R-East Greenwich. Watson said he hopes to work with some minority community groups to ensure that redistricting -- always among the most blatantly political action any legislature takes -- is fair.

"The fact is the Democrats control the candy store and the Republicans and the minority community are looking in the store window," said Watson. "We can work together on this issue."

Democrats took issue with Watson, saying the growing communities of southern and western Rhode Island are no longer solidly Republican.

"The Census numbers don't dictate which party is going to pick up seats," says William Lynch, state Democratic chairman. "We have a lot of good Democrats who have moved from urban communities in the northern part of the state to communities in South County."

"When this is all over, Democrats will still hold significant majorities in the House and Senate," Lynch said.

Martineau said the Republicans "may well" pick up seats, but it won't be due to any party advantage. Rhode Island voters pay scant attention to party labels anymore, and the success of the two parties will rest on how successful they are in recruiting good candidates willing to mount vigorous campaigns.

Martineau noted that Republicans now control traditionally Democratic Woonsocket's City Council. "In local races these days, the parties mean much less than the personality of your candidate and that candidate's work ethic," he said.



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