3.12.2001
Legislators brace for altered districts in wake of Census
The Rhode Island General Assembly must cut its membership by 25 percent and draw new district lines before the next election.

BY DAVID HERZOG and SCOTT MacKAY
Journal Staff Writers

PROVIDENCE -- "Think of Warwick as a nice big pie," says state Rep. Denise Aiken as she points to a map of her House district. "I'm right in the middle. Any way you slice it, you cut into my district."

Learn more about how the U.S. Census 2000 may affect the redrawing of state political boundaries.

Democrat Aiken represents an area anchored by T.F. Green Airport and several nearby neighborhoods. Her district is bordered on all sides by districts that are represented mostly by fellow Democrats, some of whom are among her closest friends.

As she chatted in a marble corridor in the State House basement last week, Aiken talked tentatively about legislative downsizing and redistricting, two forces that will define just about every political move in the General Assembly between now and the summer of 2002.

Aiken expects her district to change drastically before the next election.

"Nobody really knows what is really going to happen, but I know they are all playing tag and my district is it," says Aiken.

It was former U.S. House Speaker Thomas P. O'Neill's dictum that "all politics is local." A Rhode Island corollary this year would be "all politics is personal," for that is what is about to happen at State House, once the U.S. Census population figures are made public.

After the dust settles, more than a few legislators will be faced with the tough decision of deciding whether to leave elected office or run against a colleague in a new district.

At the State House, the release of the Census results is the first step in what everyone in state political circles agrees will be a tumultuous process: reducing the Assembly's size by 25 percent and at the time same drawing new legislative districts to reflect population shifts that have occurred within Rhode Island over the past 10 years.

Last week, the U.S. Census Bureau began rolling out data, state by state, from its 2000 headcount. So far, governors and party leaders in 9 states have gotten the data.

With an April 1 deadline for the Census to deliver data for all the states, Rhode Island and Massachusetts will get their detailed numbers soon.

The Census data contain population, race and Hispanic origin information for small geographic areas, as small as a city block in some cases. Market researchers, social scientists and municipal planners are awaiting the data so they can look at demographic changes.

Has the population of Providence grown? Where are new Asian communities emerging? Where are the potential Hispanic voters?

Answers to all these questions, and more, will be lurking in the data that's released later this month.

"I think people really want to see the numbers because then everyone will start looking at things closely," says Rep. Timothy Williamson, D-West Warwick. "It's going to be interesting to see where the gerrymandering is going to be."

For Rhode Island's political purposes, the key numbers will be the population increases by community.

If the Census estimates are accurate, the new population figures will show big increases -- better than 10 percent -- in South County communities, including Richmond, West Greenwich, Block Island, Exeter, Hopkinton, Charlestown, North Kingstown, and South Kingstown. Communities with population declines -- or growth less than the state average of 4.5 percent -- include the old industrial centers of Central Falls, Woonsocket, Providence, West Warwick and Pawtucket and the older suburbs of Warwick and Cranston.

Under the current setup, each of the 100 House members represents about 10,300 people and each of the 50 senators has about 20,600 constituents. The new configurations will set each of the 75 House districts at about 14,000 constituents and each of the 38 Senate districts at about 27,600.

Drawing new districts is always difficult because any changes are worrisome to elected officials, particularly long-time incumbents who have represented an area for many years. In parochial Rhode Island, that often means the representative or senator grew up in the district or is connected with constituents via ethnic, religious or family associations.

The districts also must be redrawn to comply with U.S. Supreme Court decisions barring racial constituencies from being carved in a way that would make it easier for whites to win elections. Sen. Charles Walton, D-Providence, the state Senate's only black member, vows to monitor the process to protect enclaves of black, Hispanic voters and Asian voters.

"We are going to be watching to make sure there is no dilution of minority voting strength, not only in Providence but in Pawtucket, Central Falls and Newport, where there has been growth in the Hispanic and Asian populations," Walton said.

National Census figures so far show that the Hispanic population gained enough during the 1990s to put Hispanics on par with blacks for the first time.

Hispanics numbered 35.3 million and accounted for 12.5 percent of the total U.S. population, according to a report released two weeks ago. Hispanic is an ethnic origin -- not a racial -- category in the Census; someone who is black may also be Hispanic.

Across the United States, 36.4 million people identified themselves as black or black and at least one other race, the Census says, and 34.7 million of that number said they were black only.

At the State House, many lawmakers are in denial about the coming cataclysm.

"I just block it out and try not to think about it," says Rep. Peter Palumbo, D-Cranston. "If you start thinking about it too much, you start getting paranoid. Next year it is going to be a big problem."

For the first time since he entered politics more than 15 years ago, Palumbo says half in jest that he is pleased to have the Adult Correctional Instituitions in his district.

When it comes to redistricting, the ACI helps increase the district's population, because prisoners count in the Census numbers but most of them do not vote.

"All these years the prison has caused me grief with my constituents," Palumbo says. "Now maybe it will help with this redistricting."

It is likely there will be primaries all over the state and competitive legislative elections in 2002. And in politics, when two or more people want something only one of them can have, campaigns tend to get nasty.

For Aiken, who represents the middle of Warwick, redistricting could force her into a race against Rep. Norman Knickle, D-Warwick, whose Greenwood neighborhood borders Aiken's district.

"Norm is one of my best friends, I was a bridesmaid at his wedding," Aiken said. "I may have stars in my eyes, but I think we have to get through this and still be friends."

Says Knickle, "It is too early to say what is going to happen, but I plan on staying friends with Denise."

Digital Extra:

Learn more about how the U.S. Census 2000 may affect the redrawing of state political boundaries at:

http://www.projo.com/cgi-bin/include.pl/news/census/census_extra.htm