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Rhode Island news
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State's growth prompts applause
The 4.5-percent increase
over the last decade defies Census Bureau projections of a slight population loss
for the state over the 1990s. By ARIEL SABAR
Journal Staff Writer
Rhode Island gained nearly 45,000 residents over the 1990s, the U.S. Census Bureau reported yesterday, a smaller increase than nearly every state but an increase that defies years of forecasts that the Ocean State would be a population loser.
 Learn more about the new census figures and what they mean for Rhode Island. |
The state's population grew from 1,003,464 in 1990 to 1,048,319 this year, its highest point in history.
The 4.5-percent increase over the past decade surpassed North Dakota, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Maine. But it was lower than every other state and lagged well behind the 13.2-percent increase in the national population, which reached 281,421,906 this year.
And it was hardly Rhode Island's best. The state grew faster in all but two other decades of the 20th century -- the 1970s and 1930s.
Still, the Census Bureau itself had projected a slight population loss for Rhode Island over the 1990s. And local experts had fretted that the economic slump in the early part of the decade would make Rhode Island one of perhaps two states to have shed population.
So yesterday's figures, the first released from the 2000 Census, drew exclamations of surprise from academics and self-congratulations from some political officials.
"This is better than our wildest dreams," said Leonard P. Lardaro, a University of Rhode Island economist who tracks the state's economy and population and had expected a small drop in residents. "A population decline is really a vote of no confidence in a state. We averted that."
Governor Almond wasn't shedding tears either.
"With our strong quality of life, our consistently low unemployment, our skilled work force, our noted institutions of higher learning, and our natural resources, more people have chosen to stay in or relocate to Rhode Island," he said in a statement. "Rhode Island's 1,048,000 residents can attest that our state is moving in the right direction."
Providence Mayor Vincent A. Cianci Jr. speculated in an interview that the capital city's efforts to tally traditionally undercounted groups such as minorities and immigrants was a "huge factor" in the statewide population increase.
That view found some support in the remarks yesterday of Census Bureau director Kenneth Prewitt, who said that intensified efforts to count undocumented immigrants may help explain an increase in the United States population that was larger than his demographers expected.
In Rhode Island, experts now believe that a population drop in the early part of the decade was reversed only in the last two or three years, as the economy rebounded and the number of minority residents, particularly Latinos, continued to mushroom.
THE U.S. Constitution requires the Census Bureau to give the president raw headcounts for each state by the end of each year in which a Census is conducted, so that seats in Congress can be divided according to each state's population.
More detailed figures, which tally race and age and other variables down to the city block level, will be released in March.
But the so-called apportionment numbers offer a first glimpse at how much states have grown.
The figures illustrated a continuing seesawing of population away from the Northeast and Midwest, which grew by 6 percent and 8 percent, respectively, toward the South and West, which grew by 17 percent and 20 percent.
The largest population winner in percentage terms was Nevada, which saw a 66-percent increase, to just over 2 million residents. Next came Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, and Georgia, all of which recorded increases of more than 25 percent.
No state lost population. But the slowest-growing state, North Dakota, was nearly a wash: Its population grew just a half a percent. The District of Columbia lost nearly 35,000 people, about 6 percent of its residents.
California remains the most populous state, with 33.9 million residents. But for the first time this year, Texas surpassed New York as the second most populous. Rhode Island remains the 43rd most populous state, a rank it has held since 1990, when it dropped from 40th.
Within New England, New Hampshire was the fastest-growing state, climbing 11.4 percent, to 1.2 million residents. Vermont grew 8.2 percent, to 609,000; Massachusetts, 5.5 percent, to 6.3 million. Rhode Island was fourth, followed by Maine, which grew 3.8 percent, and Connecticut, 3.6 percent.
In absolute numerical terms, however, Rhode Island grew by a smaller figure -- 44,855 people -- than all of the other New England states.
RHODE ISLAND grew at nearly the same pace as the rest of the country through much of the first half of the 20th century. But it began to fall behind -- badly -- after World War II. The closure and flight of factories that once drove the state's economy dimmed the state's prospects just as new interstate highways were helping fuel growth in the West and the South.
The state's largest growth in the 20th century in both numerical and percentage terms was from 1900 to 1910, when an influx of Italian immigrants helped push the state from 430,000 to 545,000 residents, a 26-percent increase. After 1950, its decade-to-decade growth rate never surpassed 10 percent.
Fears that the state would lose population this past decade grew from the deep economic recession in the early 1990s that drove college-educated young people across state lines in search of higher-paying jobs. The exodus peaked in 1994, when, estimates show, some 10,000 more people left the state than moved in.
In addition, military cutbacks meant job losses at major employers such as Electric Boat and Raytheon, and the banking crisis blackened the state's image among those weighing a move to Rhode Island.
Several academics said that the state struggled for much of the decade to haul its economy out of the manufacturing era, and only partly succeeded. As the country enjoyed its largest peacetime economic expansion since the 1960s, Rhode Island continued to lag the nation and even the region in key economic indicators such as job and labor-force growth and income.
High taxes and energy costs also hurt efforts to recruit new businesses.
Economic boosters said yesterday that they believe that efforts to seed a high-tech and financial-services industry here have helped in the last two years to plug the "brain drain."
"It would say to me that we're hanging on to more of our sons and daughters, which I think is a very good thing," said Christopher Bergstrom, the executive director of the strategy-setting Economic Policy Council.
Still, Census Bureau projections show that the state's soaring minority population will probably be the biggest driver of the state's population over the next three decades.
The bureau forecasts that the number of Latinos and Asians will more than double from 2000 to 2025, which would place the state's overall population on a path of modest growth over the next two and a half decades. By 2025, Latinos are expected to make up 15 percent of the state's population, up from about 6 percent in 1995.
AS THE RELEASE of yesterday's numbers neared, there was no shortage of jitters about how Rhode Island would fare in the federal government's version of a state popularity contest.
"Obviously, you're interested in seeing the state grow," said John P. O'Brien, the director of the Statewide Planning office, who said the state's own projections showed an increase in line with the numbers released yesterday. "A negative population loss is generally not seen in a favorable light."
Still, some experts said yesterday that less can be more.
"Growth doesn't necessarily go along with a high quality of life," said Hilary Silver, a Brown professor of sociology and urban studies. "If I were doing P.R. for the governor, I would probably emphasize how too much growth can mean too much traffic and bad air and crowded beaches."
Scott Molloy, a URI professor who teaches a course on Rhode Island history, says that many residents of the famously parochial state would just as soon close the door to newcomers.
"My guess is that half the population would say, 'Hey, we don't want to grow anymore. Going down Route 95 at 7:30 in the morning is tough enough as it is,' " Molloy said. "That's the Rhode Island mentality."
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