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Securities risk

06/08/2002

BY MICHAEL CORKERY
Journal Staff Writer

KABUL, Afghanistan -- The Central Bank has the smell of a place in need of a good cleaning.

The clock above the marble staircase is stuck at 12:35. The pots of plastic geraniums in the lobby are filled with cigarette butts.

Men in white turbans and navy blazers sit on worn, gray couches, talking in whispers and chain-smoking. A banker is asleep in a chair.

From behind a faux wood door comes a buzz that sends the men scurrying into action. One grabs an appointment book, the other heads off to prepare tea. Afghanistan's banking minister, Anwar Ahady, has summoned his staff and he's not happy with them.

"I asked someone to send a letter of credit to a company that is supposed to be printing money for us," Ahady says wearily. "I don't know if he's capable of doing it."

Ahady sits inside a cavernous office that looks like the lair of a Cold War bureaucrat. Burgundy drapes reach to the floor, allowing towering shafts of light into the room. A small Afghan flag stands on his desk and five phones are arranged in a semicircle on a nearby table. None of them work.

About a month earlier, in March, Ahady left his life in the United States --on the East Side of Providence -- and returned to Afghanistan, his boyhood home. A political science professor at Providence College, he was invited to head the effort to revive Afghanistan's Central Bank.

In Kabul, he reads textbooks about economic models and monetary policy borrowed from his PC colleagues. He could use a book about chaos theory, too.

AHADY HAD not seen Afghanistan since 1978, when he was in graduate school in the United States. He longed to return but was turned away by constant war and instability.

This winter, Hamid Karzai, the head of the interim Afghan government, asked Ahady to run the bank. Ahady arranged for a sabbatical at PC, packed his suits and flew to Kabul -- excited to see his native country.

Since his return, most of what Ahady sees comes through the tinted windows of his Toyota Land Cruiser.

Two months ago, he could drive around the East Side without a second thought. In Afghanistan, for security reasons, he rarely ventures beyond his home and office.

Since the interim administration took power, the aviation minister was killed by a mob at the Kabul airport, and the defense minister's convoy bombed in Jalalabad. There's constant concern about Ahady's safety.

"Does it bother me?" he says. "Yes. It would bother anyone. But that's public life in an insecure place."

Ahady lives with his in-laws inside a walled compound in Kabul. A guard stands outside, a Kalashnikov rifle slung over his shoulder. Nomadic sheep farmers, known as Kochi, huddle in the driveway, waiting to see Pir Sayed Ahmad Gailani, a spiritual leader and Ahady's father-in-law.

The compound was Gailani's home for years until the communist government forced his family to leave the country in 1978. The communists turned the property into their intelligence headquarters.

Not far away, Ahady began his political career at an outdoor rally, decrying the growing influence of communists in the Afghan government during the early 1970s. He was 17.

"When I was in 12th grade, I thought I could run the country," Ahady says. "I thought I knew everything. I realize I knew nothing."

The son of a prominent judge, Ahady was in graduate school in Chicago when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, attempting to prop up the communist government.

Gailani became a rebel leader in the 10-year jihad against the Soviets. The rebel groups, known collectively as the mujahideen, drove the superpower out of their country.

After the Soviet withdrawal, a civil war erupted between the mujahideen in 1992. The Taliban was able to restore a degree of order when it seized power and established a hard-line Islamic state in 1996. As the rest of the world turned away from Afghanistan, the Taliban invited al Qaida to set up its headquarters here.

"For years, we had to fight an invading army," Gailani says of the mujahideen. "What came after that was selfishness. They didn't have any responsibility to God or the people."

Gailani and his group went into exile in Pakistan, while Ahady worked as a professor in Rhode Island.

The fall of the Taliban and the intervention of the United States gave both men the opportunity that had eluded them for years: returning to Afghanistan with a chance at political power.

This winter, Gailani came back to his compound.

Dozens of his supporters followed him here, sleeping on the floors of cement buildings with missing windows.

Surrounded by these men, Gailani has joined the struggle for influence in the new government.

This week, more than 1,000 leaders representing different ethnic groups, tribes and religious groups will meet in an assembly called the loya jirga to choose the next head of state. It is a major test of the fragile peace that has been forged among the Afghan factions.

Gailani and Ahady are leaders within the largest Afghan ethnic group, the Pashtuns, which includes the interim leader, Karzai, and the ex-king, Mohammad Zahir Shah.

The Pashtuns' chief rivals are the Tajiks, an ethnic minority formerly of the Northern Alliance, who helped defeat the Taliban and who assumed powerful positions in the interim government. The Tajiks are looking to hold that power in the future.

"If we don't have a proper system of government," Gailani says, "[violence] is inevitable."

EVERY MORNING, Ahady awakes for a jog around the compound, flanked by two guards. By 8 a.m., he's whisked to the bank in his sleek, black SUV. He rarely leaves his office, except for meetings in the royal palace and the ex-king's residence and an occasional business trip outside the country.

By 6 p.m., Ahady heads home, again under the watchful eye of his bodyguard, Lalakhan, who left his family in Nangarhar, a province on the Pakistan border, to protect Ahady, his cousin.

When Ahady arrives home, there's usually a line of people, mostly Pashtuns, waiting to consult with him. They expect the new banking minister to handle their crises, both great and small.

"They say, 'We came here to solve our problems,' " Ahady says. " 'Can you talk to Mr. Karzai, can you do this for us, can you do that for us.' " Recently, a group of commanders asked Ahady to resolve their dispute with Northern Alliance soldiers who took their pickup trucks.

"These people are Pashtuns. They think I can help them," Ahady says. "They come to me [to ask] if I would provide some kind of financial support to them. I have a hard time supporting myself."

They ask him to deliver messages to Karzai, to the ex-king, to the United Nations, to the U.S. government. The commanders heap praise on Ahady, looking for favors, for patronage.

"Give me something, a connection or something," he says.

During the Taliban, Ahady earned a reputation in Afghanistan for his pointed radio interviews, delivered from the United States, about his country's troubles.

Ahady has become a self-proclaimed spokesman for the Pashtuns, who complain they are being slighted by the Tajiks, who dominate the government.

Many Pashtuns say Ahady is an articulate, Western-educated Afghan who has returned to help rebuild his country. Others say Ahady trumpets the cause of Pashtuns at the expense of other ethnic groups.

"I want all ethnic groups to be treated equally," he says. "But the Pashtuns are really concerned, and their concerns have to be addressed.

"The way the war ended, the Northern Alliance got the upper hand, and they are exploiting it."

Ahady remains defiant. He writes letters in his native Pashto, the language used predominantly in the south. The ministries, run by the former Northern Alliance officials, correspond in Farsi, the language of Iran.

He wants to publish a journal geared toward Pashtuns, but the Interior Ministry advised against the move in the current climate.

At his bank, officials from the Afghan intelligence service, also an arm of the Northern Alliance, patrol the halls. Ahady says their only purpose is to intimidate.

"It's a police state," he says. "These people are really just the KGB, and they can do anything to you they want."

IT'S A COOL spring day in mid-April and the value of the Afghan currency, called the afghani, is plummeting.

The money changers in the Shahzada Exchange Market say millions of new afghanis appeared in the market, curiously timed with the return of Mohammad Zahir Shah, the ex-king who abdicated his throne in 1973.

The influx caused the exchange rate to change by the hour. Over the course of two days, the rate shifted from 36,000 afghanis per U.S. dollar, to 34,000 afghanis to 37,000.

As banking minister, Ahady is the only person with authority to release afghanis into circulation. But he didn't put them there. There are some obvious suspects, but Ahady won't reveal any names.

For years, the Russian company that the bank uses to print money continued to produce afghanis for Burhanuddin Rabbani, the former Afghan president, even after his ouster by the Taliban. Rabbani remains a political player as the loya jirga approaches.

The printer promised Ahady that it will print afghanis exclusively for the Central Bank. "That's what the printer is telling us," Ahady says, "but we don't know for sure."

Guns are not the only weapon in the struggle for power in Afghanistan. Unauthorized money could prove an equally destabilizing force. If rival groups decide to dump their bills into the market, the value of the currency would sink further, and the economy could become more unstable.

Ahady is confident he can head off a crisis. A former commercial banker with an MBA from Northwestern University, Ahady plans to retire the current afghani and introduce new money, probably in four or five months. But he said he wants to keep the actual date secret.

The key players in the interim government supported the idea of a new currency, but could not agree on whose face to put on the new bills.

The problem is that Afghans, after decades of war and repression, cannot agree on a national hero. Some officials wanted to put the slain commander Ahmad Shah Massoud's portrait on the afghani. But Ahady, never a fan of the Northern Alliance, took a neutral approach.

Instead of national heroes, the currency will feature national landmarks: Shrines in Kandahar and Mazar-i-Sharif and the Salang Tunnel, a mountain pass through northern Afghanistan where the traffic must head south on one day and north on the next.

AHADY WISHES that his only problems were currency speculation and foreign investment. But after years of neglect and incompetence, the bank staff can barely perform basic functions.

"Out of the 3,500 people working for me, I can use not even five of them," Ahady says.

And still, they come to work -- for jobs that pay about $1 a day.

The tellers stand at windows without customers.

There are only a handful of computers.

Ahady uses a mobile phone to communicate with bankers in the United Arab Emirates, but he cannot speak with bank branches in Afghanistan because there are no phone lines.

With time, Ahady expects that his staff will be trained and the bank's services expanded. "It's going to be a tough few months," he says, "but eventually, it will change." The U.S. Agency for International Development promises to install a new phone system.

Fortunately, most of the bank's reserves were frozen in the United States, the United Arab Emirates and England -- unavailable for the Taliban to plunder. The bank had $200 million in reserves spread around the world, a nest egg that Ahady considers sizable.

Ahady plans to stay in Afghanistan for the next two years during the government's transitional period, depending on the outcome of the loya jirga. He says Providence College has granted him a sabbatical for that time. Eventually, Fatima Gailani, his wife, will join him here.

After turning down a job as minister of irrigation last fall, Ahady says the bank post has proven to be far more influential than he expected.

Karzai, the interim Afghan head, and International Monetary Fund officials, who are helping to rebuild Afghanistan, are extremely pleased with his work, Ahady says.

The hardest part, he says, is the lack of personal freedom. He longs to walk around Kabul and travel to the Shomali Plains, his family's former home, north of the capital. But there are too many risks.

So Ahady sticks to his routine, shuttling between the bank and his in-laws' compound. At the end of each day, the banking minister buzzes for his assistant to fetch his car. His bodyguard meets him at his office and hurries him down two flights of stairs and into the Land Cruiser.

Ahady climbs into the back seat, closes the door and disappears -- a man cloistered behind dark glass.

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