I received an invitation in the mail last week for a seminar in Warwick. It’s called “Flocking to Florida: Estate Planning for New Englanders Making the Snowbird Connection.”

The message is clear: If you move to Florida, you can save on taxes.

Keep that in mind, because the annual debate over Rhode Island’s budget is off to an early start. Governor Carcieri has been making a lot of noise lately about the state’s looming budget deficit, and with good reason — the state is spending far more than it’s taking in.

There’s been talk about slashing state jobs, changing state pensions and other benefits, and cutting down on state entitlement programs.

It’s only a matter of time, then, before the talk turns to raising state taxes. And when that happens, you know who’ll be the first and principal target — higher-income taxpayers.

Which brings me back to that seminar. It’s no secret that the tax burden on Rhode Island’s higher-income taxpayers is heavy as it is.

Increase that burden, and more of those taxpayers will take flight. They don’t just have to sit there and take it; they can move instead, to places such as Florida, which have a more favorable tax climate overall.

The truth is that if you live in Rhode Island and earn over a certain amount, you get hammered by taxes. A portion of your income can be taxed as high as 9.9 percent.

Compare that with Florida, which has no income tax, and just eliminated its “intangibles tax” (which generally has to do with your investment portfolio).

In other words, solely from an income-tax standpoint, Florida can be an appealing place to live for higher-income people.

That’s not the case for Rhode Island. Just look at the numbers. For 2005, the latest period for which figures are available, the overall Rhode Island income tax totaled about $961 million. Of that, $392 million was attributable to those with incomes of $200,000 or more.

In other words, the state’s highest-income taxpayers are responsible for about 41 percent of Rhode Island’s overall income-tax burden — even though they represent only about 2 percent of all income-tax returns filed.

You can quibble with those numbers if you like. For example, the report I looked at doesn’t make clear whether the income-tax figures I’ve listed above are before or after taking credits into account.

But look beyond those numbers, because they’re limited in scope. They focus only on income tax.

They don’t reflect what higher-income people pay in local property taxes, or what they wind up paying — one way or another — as a result of Rhode Island’s death tax (also known as the Rhode Island estate tax).

So no matter how you slice the numbers, the overriding point is indisputable — although higher-income Rhode Islanders represent only a tiny portion of all taxpayers, they carry a huge chunk of the state’s overall tax burden.

So why not tax them some more?

Because they can move elsewhere, that’s why.

They can take their families, their wealth, their businesses — and their charitable inclinations — out of Rhode Island in a heartbeat, to a place such as Florida, for example.

And it’s easier to do now than it was years ago — easier to travel, and easier to stay in touch with the folks back home, said Patricia A. Thompson, former head of the Rhode Island Society of Certified Public Accountants.

Clients talk about it “all the time,” she said. And they’re not the only ones, either. Business owners and executives who are considering moving to Rhode Island do, too, said Thompson, tax partner with Piccerelli Gilstein & Co. LLP, a CPA firm in Providence.

“Our personal income-tax rates are one of the things executives look at” when considering a move, she said. After all, she said, “The ones who are making the decision are the ones paying the personal income tax” at the higher Rhode Island rates.

“If you’re trying to drive the rate too high — and it may already be too high — then you’re going to have a problem trying to bring business in,” she said.

You’ll also have a problem retaining businesses and business owners. A smaller business especially “can easily pick up and go,” Thompson said. “Now that we’re in this global economy, it’s easier to move your business anywhere and not need to be tied to the state,” she said.

True, business owners often have too many connections here to prompt a move. But as they near retirement, “They do consider [moving to Florida or other lower-tax states] more seriously” — and they often follow through, she said.

Lawyers, accountants and other advisers are ever-ready to explain the savings one can reap by changing residency.

It’s one reason that seminar is being held in Warwick next month. One of the sponsors is the Providence law firm of Correira & Associates. And one of its lawyers, Mark Iacono, wrote about the issue in Lawyer’s Weekly a little while ago.

“The favorable income- and estate-tax regime of Florida compared to Rhode Island and Massachusetts has created an even greater incentive for ‘snowbird’ retirees to make Florida their legal home,” he wrote. “Advising snowbirds to extend their stay in Florida could be the most effective advice of all in the current tax climate.”

As the budget debate rages on, you’ll hear the usual comments from the usual suspects, repeatedly almost daily by the usual newspaper columnists. (You know who I mean.) The advocates for raising taxes are readily available, easily quotable, and guaranteed to trot out the same old solution — bridge the budget gap by taxing the rich.

That may have worked at one time. But those days are gone.

Higher-income people aren’t stupid. They know how much they pay overall in taxes — often 50 percent or more of their individual incomes, especially when federal and state income tax and self-employment taxes are counted.

They typically don’t hold jobs in government or in nonprofits; they run businesses, creating wealth and jobs and money for charities — and they pay lots and lots of taxes.

That’s why we need to keep them here, not in Florida.

Still want to raise taxes even more? Fine. If you’re employed in the government or nonprofit sector, maybe it won’t matter, at least not right away. But it will in the long run.

And if you’re employed in the private sector, you may feel the impact far more quickly.

So while you’re reading the usual blather from the usual commentators about taxing the rich, remember that seminar that’s coming up in Warwick, and others like it.

Keep an eye on the airport, as well. Flights to Florida are leaving daily. Raise Rhode Island taxes even more, and maybe the owner of your business will be onboard, leaving Rhode Island.

Maybe your job will be leaving Rhode Island, too.

Questions about your money matters? Call us at 1-401-277-7484 and leave a message, or e-mail:

moneyline@projo.com

Please include your name, home town and home phone in case we need to reach you. Sorry, no personal replies; as many questions and issues as possible will appear here.

ndowning@projo.com