Rhode Island’s economy is in serious trouble. Maybe we’re on the verge of recession. Maybe we’re in one already. I don’t know; that’s for the experts to decide.

But I do know this: Things don’t look good.

I say this because of a number that popped up at the State House the other day.

A bunch of officials were gathered in a room to talk about revenue forecasts and stuff like that. I didn’t understand everything they were talking about. But then I saw that number, and all at once the picture became clearer.

The amount that Rhode Island collected from the state’s sales tax over the last four months is down about 2.4 percent compared with the same period last year.

You don’t have to be a genius to draw a conclusion.

Broadly speaking, sales in Rhode Island are down compared with a year ago. And that’s not good.

True, the figure reflects only the sale of things that wind up being subject to the state’s 7-percent sales-and-use tax, such as TVs, appliances, computers, jewelry and building materials. And the figure is for only one point in time.

So maybe other things that don’t get taxed — such as food from the grocery store, clothing, shoes, and professional services — are selling robustly. And maybe the sale of things that do get taxed will increase soon.

But I don’t think so, because the trend is down. For example, sales-tax revenue was up a bit in August compared with the year before. But it was flat in September — and down nearly 8 percent in October.

Altogether, Rhode Island collected about $304 million in sales-tax revenue for the four months ended Oct. 31, down from about $311 million for the same period a year ago.

That’s not supposed to happen. The trend should be positive, if only because of inflation. I mean, even if Rhode Islanders bought the same amount of taxable goods this year as last year, the overall figure should be up, because prices generally rise over time. But it’s not.

And sales-tax revenue isn’t the only category of concern.

I saw another number, having to do with the state’s personal income tax. It doesn’t look good, either.

For the four months ended Oct. 31, the net amount that Rhode Island collected from the state’s personal income tax was down to about $329 million compared with about $330 million for the same period a year earlier.

That’s not too bad, but look at the trend: In July and August, personal income-tax collections rose compared with the year-earlier periods. But for September and October, net receipts fell about 3 percent in each month.

What’s going on? One factor involves home equity, state Tax Administrator David M. Sullivan said at the meeting. Because of the slump in the housing market and other factors, “People aren’t taking equity out of their homes” as much as they did before, he said. Without that source of money, homeowners may not be spending as much, which could be a reason that sales-tax revenue is down, Sullivan said.

John J. Nugent, another top state tax official, also pointed to other trends in the broader marketplace. “It’s the economy,” he said.

Michael O’Keefe, the House fiscal advisor who is chairman of the revenue-estimating group, said, “The economic forecast is not as good in general as it was in May, and, based on what’s happening with energy prices, there’s much more reason to be concerned even about that new forecast. … In other words, we’re less sure of it.”

So what do all these numbers mean? In other words, what’s the point? That’s what I asked Edward M. Mazze, former dean of the University of Rhode Island’s College of Business Administration.

“The Rhode Island economy is in trouble,” said Mazze, who now serves as a distinguished university professor of business administration at URI. The drop in sales-tax revenue, he said, shows that consumers and business leaders alike are concerned about the future.

Consumers aren’t spending as much, and businesses aren’t as willing as they were to invest in equipment and to expand, he said.

One key factor is the rising cost of fuel. If you have to pay more to fill the gas tank and heat your house, you have to cut back elsewhere.

“I can tell you from personal experience that when you go into the retail stores, you’re seeing fewer and fewer customers,” said Mazze, an expert on retailing who has written a number of books on the subject.

“The confidence in the economy is not high,” he said. “Consumers and business people are not spending.”

And the outlook is not good. Part of the problem is national, part is local, Mazze said. Rhode Island continues to rank low in economic development, and continues to rank high when it comes to mortgage foreclosures and delinquencies, he said.

“I don’t see anything turning around quickly,” he said.

As a result, the state’s budget deficit may wind up being even greater than forecast. State officials may wind up having to cut expenses even more. “I’ll even predict that we’re going to have to take a serious look at increasing taxes” to help make up for drops in revenue, Mazze said.

Keep in mind that the experts are still meeting at the State House this week, working on their revenue estimates and spending forecasts.

The final numbers aren’t out yet; they may be available late tomorrow. And Mazze will be presenting the Rhode Island economic forecast at a New England economic conference in Boston next week.

So keep reading the Journal every day to find out what’s going on. Maybe the picture will turn out to be a bit brighter than what I’ve presented here today.

In other words, maybe I’m wrong.

I hope I’m wrong.

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