John Kostrzewa

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john kostrzewa

Obama’s jobs plan could echo FDR’s

01:00 AM EST on Sunday, November 30, 2008

President-elect Barack Obama is preparing to take office as jobless rates spike across the country.

Rhode Island and Michigan, still too heavily dependent on old economies that rely on manufacturing and construction, reported unemployment rates in October of 9.3 percent, tied for the highest in the country.

But the job losses that began among blue-collar workers in places such as Rhode Island are now expanding to the service industries, such as tourism, hospitality and business services.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that 12 other states, including Florida, North Carolina and Illinois, had a jump of at least 2 percentage points in unemployment rates over the last year. The data showed the rate of decline in the job market is faster than the falloff during the so-called net bubble recession of 2001.

Obama has to worry about how high the rates will rise, and how many millions will be put out of work.

Rhode Island’s rate is expected to jump to 10 percent by the end of next year, according to the forecast by the New England Economic Partnership, a regional group of economists.

NEEP also estimates the unemployment rate in Massachusetts, 5.5 percent in October, will hit 7.6 percent by the end of 2009 and peak in the third quarter of 2010 at 8.3 percent.

Throughout New England, 250,000 jobs will be lost by 2010.

Nationally, the current jobless rate of 6.5 percent will top 8 percent in the next few months, according to economists.

“We are caught in a vicious downward cycle,” said Alan Clayton-Matthews, a NEEP forecaster at the University of Massachusetts. “It’s going to take some time for things to turn around.”

The accelerating unemployment is putting more pressure on Obama and his new team of economic advisers because the jobs crisis is more extensive than leaders in individual states can fix quickly.

In fact, that’s what Rhode Island House Speaker William Murphy hinted at during his remarks to business leaders at last week’s Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce annual meeting.

After talking about the huge state budget deficit and recession in Rhode Island, Murphy said that federal help is on the way.

“We know that federal relief will be coming sometime next year,” he said.

He referred to the economic stimulus package being put together by Obama, who said it is his top priority “to hit the ground running” after he is inaugurated on Jan. 20.

Good.

After his big election victory, Obama got off to a slow start and was barely visible for two weeks after he said the country can’t have two presidents. But as the economy deteriorates more rapidly than many thought, he is now moving quicker to pick and publicize his economic team and speak out to try to build confidence in the markets.

His stimulus package, and what it includes, is what everyone is waiting for.

So far, Obama has provided few details, other than to say he wants to create or save 2.5 million jobs over two years. But the ideas he and his team have discussed include federal money for road and bridge construction and repair, aid the states and cities extended unemployment benefits, and a middle-class tax cut. Economists estimate the spending could swell above $500 billion.

Jobs creation should be a priority.

The biggest chunk of the federal money should be targeted for infrastructure improvements that put people to work. That would solve two problems. The roads and bridges that are falling apart in places like Rhode Island will get fixed. And the work will put a paycheck in people’s pockets to support households.

The danger is that the effort will get bogged down in bureaucracy and be slow to develop. Or the federal aid will be cycled through the good-old-boy networks in the states that siphon off some of the money and reward the politically connected. And the money won’t go fast enough to people out of work, especially in the urban areas, who have been hit the hardest.

Obama faces an economic crisis that is similar, but not yet as dire, as the one that confronted Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who took office in 1932 in the midst of the Great Depression. Still, he can take a lesson from FDR.

One example of public works projects is the CCC, the Civilian Conservation Corps, which FDR set up in 1933 to take jobless young men off the streets and put them to work. Roosevelt was initially vilified as a socialist and attacked politically for being a big, liberal spender who was creating another government boondoggle.

But the CCC, organized efficiently by the military, gave jobs to 3 million young men, ages 17 to 28. They worked to build fire trails, roads, bridges and dams to develop a national park system, and completed other public works projects. Most of the meager paychecks they earned were sent home to support their families.

The CCC also taught the young men job skills, and how to function in an organization under a supervisor to reach a goal. They learned to work. When the program ended in 1942, some went into the military and won a world war. Others went into private business and built the world’s greatest economy.

Years later, the CCC is considered one of the “alphabet soup programs,” such as the Works Progress Administration (WPA) and the Social Security Administration (SSA) that pulled the United States out of a depression and set the country on a path to prosperity.

Years from now, Obama’s presidency will be gauged on the strength of the economy and the jobs he creates.

Citizens CEO talks up her Italian roots

Ellen Alemany, 52, the new CEO of Citizens Financial Group, talked about her roots in her first speech to Rhode Island’s business community during last week’s annual meeting of the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce.

She told the crowd she felt comfortable in Providence, pointing out her maiden name is Luciani and her father ran a small liquor store in New York.

“I was born and raised in an Italian neighborhood like Federal Hill with a backbone of small businesses. My dad owned a small business in the Bronx. Most of the local businesses were named after their owners — Arturo’s Bakery, Dominick’s Restaurant, Madonia’s Bread Shop.

“Those men, those families were all connected through ambition, enterprise, hard work and pride. They worked on the same street, but more importantly, they were part of the same community. And that’s something that all of us in this room care about.”

Chamber praises Met School

Melissa Sanchez now has two great memories: meeting filmmaker Spike Lee and getting a standing ovation from 740 business leaders at last week’s Chamber dinner. Sanchez, a student at the Met School, said she came from a troubled home, but she “felt a bond” when she started at the Met, a state-run career and technical school. She pursued internships, including filmmaking, and got to meet Lee and travel to India. She’s now working on her senior thesis by producing a documentary, and plans to attend college.

Laurie White, president of the Chamber, told the crowd that for the last eight years, every graduate of the Met School has gone to college and many of them are the first in their family to continue their education after high school.

She also said the Met School grads are examples of the people building a knowledge-based economy in Rhode Island, a focus of the Chamber’s campaign this year.

Unrest in China has R.I. connection

A pay dispute turned into a riot last week at a Chinese factory that makes Nerf toys for Pawtucket-based Hasbro.

The trouble underscored the urgency of China’s efforts to stoke an economy weakened by the global financial crisis. To protect jobs and social stability, the central government recently enacted a multibillion-dollar stimulus plan. Officials have also been urging factories to avoid large layoffs and to try retraining employees.

Tempers flared when the plant’s Hong Kong owner, Kader Holdings Company Ltd., prepared to lay off 216 migrant workers at the factory that employs 6,500, the Associated Press reported.

About 80 senior workers claimed they were getting shortchanged on their severance pay, and they mobilized a mob of 500. The workers battled security guards, turned over a police car, smashed the headlights of police motorcycles and forced their way through the factory’s front gate. They went on a rampage in the plant’s offices, damaging 10 computers, the company said.

After the bell…

•With Thanksgiving behind us, it’s time to shop for the upcoming holidays. Try to use local merchants who are struggling. There are 25 days until Christmas.

John Kostrzewa is the Journal’s business editor. Share an anecdote from the world of business by sending it to pjbiz@projo.com.

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