The numbers are staggering.

Rhode Island’s deficit this year is forecast at $372 million. The U.S. deficit in October was $237.2 billion.

If those figures aren’t scary enough, consider this: The state deficit is estimated to grow to $450 million for the year that starts July 1, and it could go higher if, as economists suggest, the recession lasts into 2010.

And the federal deficit will swell from $455 billion last fiscal year to $750 billion this fiscal year. Some say it could top $1 trillion by October.

Yet, despite those huge numbers, there seems to be little public outrage.

At least that’s what a group of communications professionals who gathered last week for a meeting of the local chapter of the Public Relations Society of America say they have been hearing from Rhode Islanders. During a discussion about Rhode Island’s recession, several participants also said there seemed to be no urgency among state officials to respond to the financial crisis, perhaps the worst since the 1991 banking mess. And there seems to be no visible protest from the small-business owners who employ most of Rhode Island’s work force and pay a big chunk of the taxes to support the state’s budget.

There should be. Here’s why.

The deficits will force public officials to make choices about the amount of taxes and fees Rhode Islanders pay and the type and quality of services taxpayers receive from federal, state and local governments. There’s a lot at stake.

Governor Carcieri has already said that to close the budget gap, he’s focusing on a reduction in local aid, state pensions, a review of all state contracts, program cuts and a revision of revenue policies. That means taxes.

After launching a trial balloon a few weeks ago about eliminating the income tax (which won’t happen in our lifetimes) Carcieri later said he was really trying to prompt a discussion about revising the state’s tax code, which is one of the most onerous in the country.

He mentioned that Gary Sasse, director of the state Department of Revenue, has been leading a group of 21 accountants, lawyers, economists and other tax specialists to study and recommend a long-term strategic tax plan. The group is benchmarking the state’s tax policies against other states’ tax codes that may be more equitable, efficient, predictable or transparent than Rhode Island’s.

Sasse predicts the group will develop several “decision packages,” which will lay out options and tradeoffs that try to balance taxes on income, wealth and consumption. They will be passed on to Carcieri, who will consider them and may push for some of the changes in next year’s budget.

That will be tough sledding during a recession, when declining revenues are the biggest reason for the deficit. Remember, a $233.6-million revenue shortfall is the biggest chunk of the $372-million deficit.

Still, Carcieri and his economic development team have said that crisis yields opportunities to rebuild. Rhode Islanders should take them at their word. They should evaluate and criticize the recovery plans made by Carcieri, House Speaker William Murphy and incoming Senate President M. Teresa Paiva Weed. They should give their opinions, loudly, regarding what will work and what will not.

By state law, Carcieri and the legislators have to approve a balanced state budget. So changes, good or bad, are on the way.

On the federal level, President-elect Barack Obama and Congress face no similar requirement. To pay for federal programs, he and the Congress can authorize new borrowing. In effect, the government prints new federal dollars to pay for it.

That’s one reason why the federal deficit is swelling.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson spent $115 billion last month to buy stock in eight of the biggest U.S. banks as part of his $700-billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. The deficit has also widened as the government spends more than it takes in because of the national economic slump. And more bailouts may be coming, as more industries line up for aid.

“The deficit is going to explode this year,” said David Sloan, senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York. “Given that the economy is going to be even weaker next year, the Obama administration will likely need to spend more, pushing the deficit up” to as much as $1 trillion this year, he said.

Obama has said he plans to spend more for a stimulus package. And he has pledged a middle-class tax cut of a still-undetermined size. All that spending may cast doubt on other Obama initiatives, such as an expansion of health-care benefits.

That’s because even though there’s no constitutional requirement for a balanced federal budget, the government can’t just spend forever.

There has to be a continuing appetite from buyers, especially foreign buyers, for the debt the U.S. government sells to raise money to pay for all the spending. And eventually, the sale of increasing amounts of debt could push up all interest rates, raising the cost of borrowing for everyone and dampening any impact of any stimulus program.

Here’s what’s certain: The state and federal deficits are sizeable, and growing. Because of them, big changes are on the way that will affect the state and federal governments.

Taxpayers can leave it to the elected officials, or they can push for more grass-roots influence on how much taxes are collected and how they are spent.

jkostrze@projo.com