John Kostrzewa

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John Kostrzewa: Before voting, get informed on statewide bond issues

01:00 AM EDT on Sunday, November 2, 2008

The last thing families facing a tight budget need is to take on more debt.

The weekly paychecks and other money that comes in has to go toward food, the mortgage and the basic needs to run a household. Some can be set aside to pay for long-term education or job training plans that will yield a big future benefit to the family.

That means that now may not be time to make a major purchase or fix up the house, requiring another monthly interest payment on borrowed money. It may have to wait until the economy turns, and jobs and finances stabilize.

Taxpayers should use the same approach when they look at state and municipal bond issues on Tuesday’s ballot.

Do the projects need to be done now or can they be put off until later? Do they expand the economy and create jobs? Do they make Rhode Island a more attractive place to do business?

Voters will consider two statewide bond issues. One, for $87.2 million, is for state transportation needs, including improvements to roads, highways and bridges; the other is for $2.5 million to purchase or protect open space.

Many other bond issues are on the ballot at the municipal level. For example, in Cranston, there are five bond issues: $6.3 million for fire station construction and repairs; $10 million for public highway improvements; $6 million for drainage improvements; $1 million for a financial software system; and $6 million for preservation of open space and other natural resources.

Advocates and opponents of each bond can make their cases about whether voters should approve them or not. I’m not taking a position up or down on the ballot issues.

But taxpayers should understand that if approved, they will add to the local or state debt load. Taxpayers will have to divert more money to pay for the borrowing, on top of existing debt.

As of June 30, Rhode Island had a net tax-supported debt of $1.7 billion, up 5.8 percent from a year ago.

That means the debt for every man, woman and child in Rhode Island is $1,766. That far exceeds the median level in the United States of $889.

Also, Rhode Island’s debt level equals 4.7 percent of personal income, compared with the U.S. median of 2.6 percent.

That gives Rhode Island a rank of ninth highest in the country in debt per capita and 13th highest in debt related to personal income.

While Rhode Island’s debt levels are higher than the median of all the states, it is lower than the debt levels in other New England states. For example, Massachusetts ranked number one in debt per capita and second in debt as a percentage of personal income.

In Rhode Island, the cost of the two state bond issues, including $89.7 million in principal and $66.7 million in interest, would total $156.4 million over a 20-year payback period.

The estimates are based on a 6 percent interest rate and if the bonds are sold all at once.

There are other factors Rhode Islanders should consider.

The state is in a recession. Based on forecasts at last week’s state Revenue & Caseload Estimating Conference, the downturn will not end soon. In fact, economists forecast unemployment will stay high through the end of 2009 and housing prices will continue to decline well into next year. The forecasters project that revenue collections from taxes and fees to pay for the state budget will come up short.

Also, Rhode Island is one of six states that Moody’s Investors Service has placed on “negative outlook” for its bond rating because of pinched finances and crimped revenue.

Sales tax revenue, which generates about one-third of general fund revenue for states, is expected to fall as consumers cut spending, according to Moody’s. Income tax revenue also will likely decline because of “sagging personal income.” Moody’s said.

“While the credit market slump poses short-term risks for some states, particularly ones that rely on cash-flow borrowing, the long-term credit quality of states will be pressed by the current economic downturn,” said Nicholas Samuels, vice president of Moody’s.

Moody’s Investor Service rates Rhode Island’s debt at Aa3. Standard & Poor’s currently rates Rhode Island’s general obligation debt at AA. Fitch Ratings Service recently downgraded Rhode Island’s general obligation debt rating from AA to AA-, noting weakness in revenue collections and the state’s faltering economy.

The Rhode Island Public Expenditure Council, the nonpartisan, business backed group, has taken no position on the state bond issues. But RIPEC’s analysis of state debt showed the state’s capital budget for fiscal years 2009 to 2013 includes $1.6 billion in debt issuance over the five-year period. That includes $470.9 million in general obligation debt, including the two referenda on Tuesday’s ballot.

“RIPEC notes that recent market events will have an impact on borrowing requirements for the state. With the current challenges in the debt market, it is unclear what the impact will be on the state’s ability to access the market and at what cost,” the analysis said.

All that’s plenty to think about.

To learn more, the state has mailed to each household a description of the two statewide issues; and local boards of canvassers have sent to homes descriptions of the local issues. Also, staffers at The Journal have written stories about the spending requests that appeared in the newspaper and online at projo.com. To look up the bond issues, go to www.projo.com/news/politics/

They are all worth reading, especially now. Rhode Island has made progress since its debt load in the early 1990s was among the highest in the country after taxpayers bailed out depositors from the failed banks and credit unions.

A good decision on Tuesday will be an informed decision.

Net tax-supported debt
Per Capita
199820032008
U.S. median$505$606$889
Connecticut$3,131$3,440$3,698
Maine$418$471$618
Massachusetts$2,436$3,298$4,529
New Hampshire$620$485$499
Rhode Island$1,670$1,508$1,766
Vermont$953$861$707
R.I. rank within U.S.579
Percent of Personal Income (2006)
199820032008
U.S. median1.9%2.2%2.6%
Connecticut8.7%8.2%7.3%
Maine1.9%1.8%1.9%
Massachusetts7.8%8.5%9.8%
New Hampshire2.4%1.4%1.3%
Rhode Island6.6%5.0%4.7%
Vermont4.2%3.0%2.0%
R.I. rank within U.S.4813
SOURCE: Moody’s Investors Services - Medians -Various Years

jkostrze@projo.com

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